Researchers specializing in infectious diseases at the University of Texas at Austin, the capital of the state of Texas, who study the emerging coronavirus (Covid-19), have successfully determined how quickly the virus can spread, a factor that may assist public health officials in its containment efforts.
The researchers found that the time period between cases in the transmission chain is less than a week, and that more than 10% of patients contract the infection from someone who had the virus and no symptoms appear yet, and in the study, published in the Journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases, a team was able to Scientists from the United States, France, China, and Hong Kong calculate what is called the serial time interval of the virus. To measure the serial separation, scientists examined how long the symptoms lasted for appearing in two people with the virus, the person who infects another, and the second person who contracted the infection.
The researchers found that the average serial time interval of the emerging coronavirus in China is approximately four days, and this is also among the first studies to estimate the rate of transmission without symptoms appearing on the person transmitting the infection.
Laura Ansel Mears, an integrative biology professor at the University of Texas, said: “Ebola, which has a chain break, is easier to contain for several weeks more than the flu and has a serial break for a few days, so there is more time to identify and isolate cases of Ebola before it infects others, The data indicates that the emerging corona virus may spread like influenza.
Myers and her team examined more than 450 reports of infections from 93 cities in China, and found the strongest evidence yet that people who had no symptoms must transmit the virus, which is known as pre-symptom transmission, and the study indicated that more than One in 10 cases of infection was from people who had the virus, but have not yet felt sick.
interval
The speed of a pandemic depends on two things: the number of people affected by each condition, and how long it takes for the infection to spread between people. The first quantity is called the reproductive number, and the second is the serial separator. The short serial break of "Covid 19" means that the emerging propagation waves will increase rapidly, and it can be difficult to stop them, according to the researchers.
450
A report on infection cases from 93 Chinese cities examined by the study.
Lauren Ancel Mears:
"The data indicates that the emerging coronavirus may spread like influenza."