INTERVIEW
How to prepare for the release from containment aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus? This is the problem on which a group of ten experts has been working since Wednesday, set up at the request of the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron "to clarify the public decision". "At the end of containment, we can expect the epidemic to start again," explains Simon Cauchemez, epidemiologist modeler at the Pasteur Institute and member of the scientific committee which advises the Head of State. At the microphone of Patrick Cohen, the specialist speaks for the first time since the start of the crisis.
"Find viable alternative strategies"
"We must have a reflection today on viable alternative strategies to put in place later," said Simon Cauchemez. "We want to make sure that the epidemic goes out to stop the saturation of healthcare systems. The testing strategy is seriously considered by all, but in itself multiplying the tests will not be enough to stem this epidemic. what we're working on right now on the scientific board. "
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The mass screening solution has proven its worth in South Korea. Nearly 60,000 tests are carried out there every day while the country has 50 million inhabitants, against only 2,500 in France. Without resorting to population containment measures, South Korea thus succeeded in reversing the trend and by mid-March, the cure rate there exceeded the rate of contamination. "These countries went through the SARS experience in 2011," says Simon Cauchemez. "So they completely redistributed their way of proceeding in this type of situation.
Telework "won't be enough"
The scientific council is all the more active as its research has led it to produce particularly dark projections, with very high mortality assumptions, not taking into account radical prevention measures. According to him, the Covid-19 epidemic could cause up to 500,000 deaths in France. "The scenario is very serious but we still have a lot of uncertainty", nuances the epidemiologist.
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"Either we reduce transmission in the population by closing schools and extending telework - but we know that it will not be enough, we will then see the explosion of cases and the saturation of health systems - or we try to find alternative control strategies, "he concludes.