New Coronavirus Countermeasures Expert Meeting Proposal March 20, 4:16
The "Situation Analysis and Proposals" compiled by the Expert Group on Countermeasures for New Coronaviruses analyzed the current domestic situation and included recommendations for the public.
Hokkaido continues to be alarming
According to the current situation, it has been shown that the number of newly infected people has been suppressed to a certain extent since Hokkaido issued an emergency declaration on March 28 and called for self-control on weekends, etc. Still, the epidemic was not apparently ending and continued to be alarming.
However, it was stated that the emergency declaration had a certain effect from the viewpoint of preventing rapid spread of infection.
In addition, the situation of domestic infections other than Hokkaido continued, but the spread was seen in some areas, although it continued to hold up.
In particular, it is said that sporadic outbreaks occur in areas where the source of the infection is unknown, and if this situation continues to increase in the future and expands nationwide, it will lead to a pandemic with explosive spread of infection I couldn't do that.
Although there is some opinion that domestic measures have so far been effective, there are influxes from overseas, etc., so we will continue to monitor trends and sufficiently curb actions in environments where the risk of infection spread is high. That was important.
In addition, as for the future prospects, if the majority of people and businesses try to keep people out of contact with each other as much as possible, enclosed space, crowded people, short distance conversation and utterance will occur simultaneously. He pointed out that a population or cluster of patients who would not be aware of the infection without continuing efforts to avoid places could lead to an explosive surge of patients, called "overshoot," one day.
Cluster measures need to be expanded quickly and drastically
The recommendations of the expert meeting also pointed out the importance of responding to a group of patients called clusters, and pointed out the need to rapidly and radically expand current cluster measures.
Specifically, it states: (1) securing human resources, (2) strong cooperation and information sharing between local governments, and (3) inputting personnel and budget from health centers to take measures.
In addition, the government should proceed with a study to promptly shift to a medical system that prioritizes severely ill patients. Among them, people with strong laxity, breathlessness, elderly people, and people with underlying diseases will be consulted early, while those with mild illness who do not need inpatient treatment will be monitored by telephone as home treatment I decided to do it.
Regarding schools after the spring break, it is important to take into account the epidemic situation in each region, and the necessity of measures such as avoiding places where the three conditions that increase the risk of outbreaks occur simultaneously in daily school life should be avoided. Stressed.
Regarding large-scale events nationwide, he pointed out the risk of outbreaks and the risk of spread, and that outbreaks, regardless of whether indoors or outdoors or the number of people, would lead to nationwide spread of infection. Was concerned. If these risks cannot be addressed, they need to be canceled or postponed.
In addition, it is absolutely unacceptable for prejudice and discrimination against infected individuals, close contacts, and healthcare providers who treat them. And avoiding visits to places where there are people.
79.9% infected if insufficient measures are taken
The `` Situation Analysis and Recommendations' 'compiled by the Experts' Meeting includes estimates by Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University about what would happen if a large-scale outbreak occurred and sufficient measures were not taken. Was.
The estimates assume an area with a population of 100,000, and assume that the rate of infection spread is about the same as in Europe today.
As a result, on the 50th day of the epidemic, the number of new cases per day, including those with mild illness, amounted to 5414, and 79.9% of the population would eventually be infected.
In addition, it was estimated that the number of serious patients requiring respirators would reach 1096 on the 62nd day of the epidemic, which would have exceeded the limits of local medical care.
The Experts noted that in fact, strong measures, such as cluster measures, should be taken to not exceed the local healthcare delivery system.
Prof. Nishiura, Hokkaido University "Is Hokkaido Model a Success?"
Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University, who had a meeting after the Experts' Meeting, commented on the effects of a series of measures taken in Hokkaido from late last month, saying, `` In Hokkaido, the number of infected people has been remarkably decreasing after the declaration of emergency. Although the situation is still unpredictable, I believe that the cooperation of many people has succeeded in what we can call the “Hokkaido Model”. ”
Regarding the situation in the country as a whole and measures to be taken in the future, "I think that efforts such as self-restraint and the cooperation of many people have made it possible to see the light of hope. We can, but we can't continue for a long time. As a Japanese model, we are desperately trying to find a way for sustainable measures for a long time. "
On the other hand, regarding the holding of large-scale events nationwide, `` If a large-scale event is held and a very large population of infected people, mega clusters occur, there is a risk that the efforts so far will be returned to a bubble. There is. "
Professor Kawana, Defense Medical College “Need to share the roles of medical institutions”
Professor Akihiko Kawana of Defense Medical College, who attended a press conference after the expert meeting, explained about the necessary medical system in preparation for the spread of infection in the future, "Situation that mildly ill patients will be hospitalized when the number of patients increases significantly. The role of the medical institution must be divided, such as treating the severely ill with a highly functional medical institution, and the mildly ill with a general medical institution or clinic. We understand that no medical institution has ceased to respond at this time, but we believe that concerns have been particularly heightened in areas where many infected people have been reported. "
Mr. Omi, "Judge the event carefully"
At a press conference, Deputy Chair of the Experts' Meeting and Shigeru Omi, chairman of the Regional Healthcare Organization, said that the nationwide large-scale event was held by the organizers to judge the risks. Even if the event is held outdoors, there is a risk that if an outbreak occurs in an event involving an unspecified number of people from all over the country, it may spread to the whole country, so we ask you to make a careful decision. If you feel something unusual while preparing for the event, we would like you to decide to cancel. "
He commented, `` While various opinions have been raised about the event, all members have a sense of danger that a large-scale infection could occur at any time in Japan because the methodologies differed among experts. Yes. "