The coronavirus, "most serious health crisis" in a century?

• This Thursday, during his speech on the coronavirus epidemic, Emmanuel Macron stressed the gravity of the current situation.
• "The Covid-19 [...] is the most serious health crisis that France has known in a century," said the President.
• Exaggerated statement or relevant historical reminder? 20 Minutes takes stock with different specialists.

"Covid-19, which affects all continents and strikes all European countries, is the most serious health crisis that France has known in a century".

From the first minutes of his speech, this Thursday evening, Emmanuel Macron set the tone for the measures announced in the aftermath: closure of schools from Monday, limitation of the movement of fragile people, preferable use of telework…

Covid-19, which affects all continents and strikes all European countries, is the most serious health crisis that France has known in a century.

Did the President of the Republic show exaggerated gravity on this occasion? Or did he, on the contrary, give a relevant reminder of the historical scope of the current health crisis, which, at this point, caused more than 2,800 cases and 61 deaths in France?

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For Patrick Zylberman, professor emeritus of health history at the Graduate School of Public Health (EHESP), "the observation [of Emmanuel Macron] is correct": "It is indeed the worst known health crisis by France since the Spanish flu - or rather the crisis with the most important health starting point. "

Between 1918 and 1919, the Spanish flu epidemic caused between 20 and 50 million deaths, according to the Institut Pasteur - and between 150,000 and 250,000 victims in France.

"The whole question stems from the definition given to a" health crisis "", underlines for his part Patrice Bourdelais, demographer and historian, emeritus director of studies at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS): "If we reason in terms of the number of deaths, this is false: the 1957 Asian flu claimed 100,000 victims in France, and a decade later, the Hong Kong flu claimed 31,000 - while passing completely unnoticed since there is no mention of it in the press or in the hospital mobilization of the time, and it was not until 2003 that the number of deaths was discovered ”.

However, as Guillaume Lachenal, Medialab professor at Sciences Po and medical historian points out, “there are all kinds of measures to express or assess the health threat: the number of gross deaths is not necessarily relevant, and it is still far too early to assess the current epidemic, especially since it could also have a more general impact on the health system. "

"The most serious health crisis since the Spanish flu"

We should therefore understand the expression used by the President of the Republic in a more extensive way, as Patrice Bourdelais points out: "If we consider the health crisis from the point of view of the social construction of an epidemic - which is probably the meaning to be given to Emmanuel Macron's comments given his age - the coronavirus effectively represents the most serious health crisis since the Spanish flu ”.

"In this matter, it is an unprecedented epidemic, there has been an extraordinary staging of China to demonstrate its control and its ability to fight against a new epidemic. With the news channels and social networks, these images have had a considerable impact in the world, and in particular in France, where we have seen people wear masks based on the Chinese model while it is not part of our habits at all. The social construction of the epidemic is very strong and powerful, it is unprecedented, in the same way as the daily points of the Director General of Health on the number of cases ”, continues the specialist.

Emmanuel Macron's speech on the coronavirus, March 12, 2020. - LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP

From this point of view, the major health scandals that have lasted over time - the tainted blood affair in particular - cannot therefore be considered a health crisis. As for the heat wave of 2003, regularly cited as an example of a recent crisis, "it killed 15,000, which is considerable, but it was a hospital crisis, a crisis due to the lack of preparation of hospitals rather than a crisis sanitary ”, shade Patrick Zylberman.

For Guillaume Lachenal, the statistical comparison with the most serious health precedents is not necessarily of great interest at this stage. “What is important is the uncertainty about the scale and duration of the epidemic. There is therefore both a real and uncertain threat, which justifies the use of this expression of "crisis", since according to its Greek etymology, it refers to the decision, to the idea that action must be taken ", concludes- he.

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• Emmanuel Macron
• Coronavirus
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