The World Health Organization has announced the new Corona virus, which is causing a disease we now know as "Covid-19", as a global pandemic, which means that the epidemic has become widespread in the whole world, this statement came after the number of infected countries exceeded the barrier of one hundred countries, and based on how serious The disease and its social and economic impact, with expectations that the new SK will reach everywhere in the world, it is no longer "Will the new SK arrive on my doorstep?" Rather, "When will the new Corona hit my doorstep?"
In this report, the scientific team has opted for the Meydan platform to avoid too much speech and use a set of graphs based primarily on WHO statements and data (1,2). Infograph is sometimes more capable of communicating information than analytical writing by its nature, and if You want to go deeper into this, you can look forward to several previous reports on the new Corona that you can find by clicking on the title of the science section above.
Will the new Corona continue to spread?
Well, to start with the numbers of the injured, we are now talking, by the time we reach on March 12, about 120 thousand registered cases, according to a study issued at the end of January, in the journal "New England Journal or Medicine". Examining the pattern of escalation of the infection in the first 425 cases of the new corona indicates that the numbers of patients have doubled completely every week, but if you think about it, you will find that the number moved from 50 thousand to 100 thousand cases in about three weeks.
| "Note that while the chart line was set to stabilize by mid-February, it continued to increase with the beginning of March |
China had announced (3) a few days ago that it started to close hospitals for the new Corona virus after the number of daily cases decreased, this gave a sign of hope for everyone, and some scientists believed that we have already reached the maximum number of cases daily, and the quarantine measures that It has been implemented very professionally and has succeeded in its goals, but unfortunately, China was four weeks late before announcing the matter and informing the World Health Organization of the developments.
This allowed for the emergence of a number of very dangerous hotspots in different parts of the world, talking about Iran and Italy as a start, then France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, etc., and we have not yet touched on the southeast Asian disaster surrounding China. Each of these geographical regions can be considered a new China in which the numbers of daily cases are increasing. At the beginning of the epidemic, health care systems cannot easily contain the matter, which increases the daily numbers steadily, and after a point it does not decrease gradually.
Consider for example the number of daily casualties on a global level, regardless of that sudden increase in February 16 that came due to changing the criteria for examining the disease, you will notice that by the end of February the number of new cases decreased and it seemed that the end of the new Corona had approached, but with the emergence of new dangerous spots did not It is possible to build a prediction like this. Daily numbers increased again by the first week of March, and everything returned to a preliminary stage, and the matter even increased, because this time we are not talking about one country, but rather various foci.
Therefore, it is no longer possible to predict the future of the global corona, but at this point you can consider (4) the statement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which she said that 60-70% of the German people are vulnerable to infection with the new corona, this statement was really shocking, compare it For example, Trump's repeated statements on the matter, but Merkel's advisory team already knows that no downturn is predictable soon, and perhaps we must deal on the basis of worst-case scenario. But, what if that happens, what if the worst event happens and the new Corona comes to our doorstep?
What do I know about the new Corona?
Well, let's start by clarifying some of the main points related to the disease itself, Covid-19, now we know that the symptoms of (5) the main disease is high temperature, in about 90% of cases, dry cough, in about 70% of cases, and physical exhaustion. In about 40% of cases, shortness of breath in about 20% of cases.
But despite that, that data is not as exclusive as it is spread on social media, other symptoms such as headache, sore throat, nausea and diarrhea appear in other cases, but more reassuring; not the same symptoms as severe, we know that Covid-19 has an average effect (6) In 81% of cases, exactly as a common cold or less, with 14% of the cases evaluated to a degree of severity, and only about 5% of the cases are critical, including deaths.
It also appeared that the virus did not cause any deaths in children, despite the infection of children from a very young age of several days, and it also seemed clear that the death rate rises with the rise of two factors, the first is the age, so that you are less than 40 years Makes the probability less than 0.2%, and rises by the eighties, and the second is chronic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer.
To date, the death rate due to the new corona is 2-3%, but there are two criteria that govern this change in the future. The first is the number of cases affected, because not everyone who gets sick goes to the hospital. Many people only stay in their homes, and therefore the state does not reach them, meaning that the current number of deaths may be lower than expected, while Panama starts from 0.5 to 1%, but the other serious criterion relates to the ability of health systems to withstand the pressure of new cases.
What should I do?
The second criterion relates to our ability to cope. At some point, the ability of the health system in a country to cope with more pressure may depend, which raises the numbers of deaths. As we said a while ago, 14% of cases require medical attention, since a million people mean that 140,000 people, which is a huge number. This refers us to the last infographic in this report, and it indicates (7) the role that you can personally play in Facing the pandemic.
At some point, our concern is not the numbers of infected people or future illnesses of disease, we have already crossed the barrier of that stage, but the main and critical goal is to slow the rates of new infections, because that in turn, and if it does not stop the virus, it will reduce the number of infections Daily, so that the health system can handle the matter at full capacity and contain a great degree of safety. All countries are working on that now, to stop the study and prevent gatherings, and it comes to the level of quarantine in advanced cases, but there is nothing more effective - for this purpose - than following safety procedures.
Researchers assess that by adhering only to the correct rules for handwashing, the world will avoid a 70% spread of the disease.
For you as an ordinary citizen, all that is required is a degree of caution, the matter is not plague, but it is not a common cold, and you should deal with it this much, nothing more, nothing less. Hands with soap and water frequently, 20 seconds at a time, also avoid crowds as much as possible, avoid touching your face as much as possible and avoid contact with others, be sure to stay at home with the symptoms of a cold. In a study released by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology several weeks ago, researchers assess that if travelers adhere to only the correct rules for handwashing, the world will avoid a 70% spread of the disease.
In times like these, we are not only facing the threat of a pandemic, but also the threat of panic. Do not promote any news you find on social media, and only adhere to official sources such as the World Health Organization (WHO) or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that release their data on a daily basis and qualify you, as an ordinary citizen, to fight the virus in the best possible way.