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Social concern increases almost hourly. The figures intermingle, crowd, confuse ... They must be ordered and studied. And some questions arise. For example, why in Germany have only three people died with coronavirus when their numbers of positives approach those of Spain (1,908 compared to 2,222, according to WHO figures at press time)? Or why in South Korea, where the number of infected is four times higher than ours (7,755), only 60 patients have died?

These two countries are the only ones where the mortality rate is much lower than the rest . In Germany it is around 0.15% and in South Korea, 0.77%, similar to the lethal impact of the flu. In China, however, this rate rises to 3.9% (80,790 infected and 3,158 deaths); 3.99% in Iran (9,000 infected and 354 deaths); in France, 2.1% (2,281 infected and 48 deaths) and in Spain, 2.43% (2,222 infected and 54 deaths). Why this difference?

There is no certain answer. "Health systems in Europe are practically the same, we could not say that their hospitals or ICUs are better than ours," says Jordi Reina, head of the Virology unit at Hospital Son Espases, in Palma de Mallorca. In addition, " the virus that circulates throughout Europe is the same, responding to a single genotype . Spain is no more virulent."

"Perhaps we are severely restricting testing. If we did all of the tests that were requested, they would be more positive, and therefore the death rate would drop ." This hypothesis could explain why Germany has a much lower case fatality than Spain with a relatively similar number of positives.

Benito Almirante, head of Infectious Diseases at the Vall d'Hebron Hospital in Barcelona, ​​is of the same opinion: "In South Korea more than 100,000 tests have been done. They have detected people with few symptoms, even asymptomatic."

Here in Spain the number of tests carried out throughout the country is not clear, but it will be around 17,500. "We have stricter criteria, for the people who need it most. If we expanded it, we would delay the diagnosis in those who are more serious and they could end ... If in a few weeks we had a large-scale commercial kit, then it would be feasible".

At the moment, the Spanish guidelines point to very specific cases, that is, "the people who need it most," both experts point out.

However, many other aspects would have to be calmly analyzed, such as checking what segment of the population it is affecting in Germany or cases of hospital admission ... Here in Spain, Reina explains, "people who are dying are over 75 years old "

On the other hand, the case of Italy is striking , where the case fatality rate is even higher than in China , at 5.7% compared to 3.9%. Could this discrepancy in rates be explained in the same way? "In Italy, surely, they are diagnosing the most serious cases, not those with few or no symptoms, which would increase the fatality rate," argues Almirante.

Saving these differences between statistics, stresses the Vall d'Hebron specialist, the overall mortality is between 1% and 3%. In addition, according to Jordi Reina, it should be remembered that "80% of coronavirus infections carry very mild symptoms, are practically asymptomatic, and do not require hospital admission."

In addition, there is another key data on the number of deaths in each country: the percentage of people over 65 years of age. It is known by all that the virus affects to a greater extent -and its consequences are much more serious- the older population with previous pathologies. Well, it seems logical to think that the fact that Italy has more than 22% older people in its population pyramid and that in South Korea this percentage is less than 15% is a key factor for the lethality of the virus in each country .

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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