Xinhua News Agency, Wuhan, March 1st: Where do hundreds of newly confirmed cases come from in Wuhan?
Xinhua News Agency Xinhua Viewpoint reporters Qin Jiaofeng, Liao Jun, and Liu Hongyu
Strict measures have been maintained in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in Wuhan. There have been some positive changes in the epidemic situation, but there are still hundreds of newly confirmed cases in Wuhan every day. Where do these newly confirmed cases come from? "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporters followed up.
80% -90% come from suspected cases, and the percentage of people diagnosed in close isolation in some isolation points is higher than 5%
It is understood that at present Wuhan focuses on the investigation and management of groups related to new coronary pneumonia, mainly including suspected cases and close contacts. So, which group do newly diagnosed cases mainly come from?
First, the group of suspected cases is the main source of newly confirmed cases. Liang Wannian, the leader of the expert team for the treatment of the new crown pneumonia epidemic of the National Health and Health Commission, said recently that 80% to 90% of the newly confirmed cases in Wuhan were transferred from suspected cases.
Taking February 28 as an example, 420 newly diagnosed people were diagnosed in Wuhan, calculated according to the above ratio, of which between 336 and 378 were converted from suspected cases. According to data from Wuhan New Crown Pneumonia Prevention and Control Headquarters, there were 788 suspected patients in Wuhan on February 28, and 114 new suspected cases were added that day.
A person from the disease control department in a major urban area of Wuhan introduced that the proportion of newly diagnosed cases in the district on February 29 was transferred from suspected cases to 83%.
Secondly, some close contacts have also turned into newly confirmed cases. A China-WHO joint expert team tracking investigation found that approximately 1% -5% of close contacts were diagnosed with the new crown virus. Take February 28 as an example. There were 13,728 close contacts in Wuhan. According to the above ratio, the number of people who may be infected with the virus was between 137 and 686.
The reporter's investigation found that at some isolation points, the proportion of close-connected people diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia is still relatively high. According to disease control personnel in a main urban area of Wuhan, the proportion of close-connected personnel in the area to be diagnosed is about 6%.
The statistics obtained by the reporters at two isolation points in a main city area show that the first isolation point has accumulated a total of 170 observers. Currently, 26 confirmed cases have been transferred out, the proportion is as high as 15%; the second isolation point has accumulated observers. Of the 270, 27 confirmed cases have been transferred, accounting for 10%.
An analysis of the management of close-knit isolation points in a main urban area of Wuhan has recently revealed that as the scope of nucleic acid testing has expanded to close-knit populations, some asymptomatic infections that have not been detected previously have also been found and found, so the number of confirmed cases has increased significantly. On the statistical table of this district, the first isolation point has transferred out 22 people with positive nucleic acid test, and the second isolation point has 16 people. Management said that many of them were asymptomatic.
In addition, a number of Wuhan CDC personnel said that a considerable part of the new cases in the past few days were asymptomatic infections found in special places such as detention centers. Data show that as of 24:00 on February 29, 233 of the 565 special venues were added on the day.
Some communities are still spreading confirmed cases
On February 11th, Wuhan New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters issued Circular No. 12. In order to further strengthen source control and minimize personnel flow, it was decided to implement closed management in all residential districts within the city from now on. The building units where the patients with new coronary pneumonia are diagnosed or suspected must be strictly controlled.
According to the sixth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan, the incubation period of new coronary pneumonia is 1-14 days, mostly 3-7 days.
The reporter found that individual community epidemic notices showed that newly confirmed cases appeared in recent days. A community in Wuchang District notified on February 28 that one new confirmed case was reported in four communities in that community on the same day; a community in Qingshan District reported on February 28 that one confirmed case was added that day. In addition, a unit in Hongshan District notified on February 28 that a staff member of the unit lived in a community in Jiangxia District and was diagnosed with new crown pneumonia.
According to the epidemic announcement of a community in Hongshan District on February 28, from 12:00 on February 24th to 28th, 7 out of the 7 grids were released without confirmed cases for 5 consecutive days, and the other 3 grids were within 5 days. New confirmed cases have appeared.
The notice showed that there were no new confirmed cases in two grids for four consecutive days, seven grids did not appear for one day, and eight grids did not appear for two consecutive days. In other words, these three grids have new cases between the 24th and the 28th.
In addition, some communities also announced new suspected cases. A community in Dongxihu District reported on February 28 that the number of newly diagnosed cases on that day was 0, and one new suspected case was reported on the same day. A community in Qingshan District reported on February 28 that one new suspected case was added.
Old communities are difficult to seal and control, and mobile workers need to strengthen their protection
Xu De, the captain of the first batch of CDCs in Anhui to support Wuhan, said that the onset of suspected cases and the conversion of suspected cases into confirmed cases were not only expected, but also within their grasp. However, he reminded to be vigilant that the prevention and control measures in some communities have not been strictly implemented.
The reporter visited a community in Hongshan District, where newly diagnosed cases appeared recently, and found that its pressure for containment was greater. The staff on duty introduced that there are more than 8,000 people in the community, and now there are four or five hundred people in and out. The reporter flipped through the register. From 1pm to 1:40 pm, the number of people entering and leaving reached 46, an average of one per minute. During the reporter's stay during the interview, there was a steady stream of people going in and out of work, picking up and courier, and so on.
Some staff at the grassroots level reported that there are many door holes in some old communities and villages in the city. In addition, the sealing is not strong enough and tight, and there are some loopholes.
A community police officer in a city-rural junction in Wuhan reported that the community had more than 50 intersections, and there were 6 intersections remaining after the closure, which took more labor. At the same time, residents have a strong demand for shopping, and there is a lot of pressure on community control. If the work of community workers is not sophisticated enough, it can easily lead to oversight.
Interviews with reporters found that there were also close contacts who successfully applied for passes on the grounds of escort. At the gate of a community in Hanyang District, a middle-aged man was carrying vegetables and was about to return to the community. He told reporters that because his mother in her 80s was hospitalized with new crown pneumonia, as an accompanying family member, he applied to the community and obtained a pass.
Xu De reminded that at present, there are still some people moving in Wuhan to prevent and control the epidemic and maintain the basic operation of the society. The protection of this group of people should be attached great importance. The reporter noticed that a new case was announced by a community in Wuchang District on February 28 and marked as medical staff. Xu De said that during the unannounced visits on the street, he saw several express delivery brothers gather to smoke, and the risk of infection was greater.