ANALYSIS
Faced with the coronavirus epidemic, the government went into high gear on Saturday. The Minister of Health has indeed announced that all "gatherings of more than 5,000 people" in a closed environment and certain outdoor events, such as the Paris half-marathon on Sunday, will be canceled in France. Guest of Europe 1, Sélim Miled, president of the company Crysalide and expert in crisis management, explained the different phases of good crisis management by the health authorities, and defended the action of the government.
Why are league 1 matches maintained?
Defining the perimeters of event cancellations is "expertise", says Sélim Miled. "The subject is discussed with doctors, epidemiologists, we do a risk assessment and at some point, we have to choose thresholds". "We take into account the way the virus circulates, to define the level of risk in relation to the environment," he explains. "In this case, circulation air circulation is extremely important, and when we are in an open stadium with air that will circulate, people are not in a confined environment where they will to exchange the virus more easily. The risk is not the same as concert halls. "
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But could not infected people go to the stadiums for the various Ligue 1 matches? "Crisis management never makes zero risk," replies Sélim Miled. "We adapt the means, sufficient and necessary, to the risk we have in front of us, and we constantly reassess". However, he adds, "given the level of risk, it seems sufficient to leave on this basis". Of course, he admits, "there is a one in 10,000 or 100,000 chance that someone infected will come to a stadium, but we have weighed the risk in relation to the complexity of the implementation of the means".
What about public transport?
"Today, stopping public transport would be an economically very serious decision for an ultimately small gain," said Sélim Miled. According to the expert, if you respect basic hygiene measures during your trip, "traveling by public transport is not risky". "This is not a sufficient risk to have such a serious impact on the lives of French people and the economy," said the guest from Europe 1.
Ongoing reassessments
Regarding football stadiums, "today, the decision is this. Perhaps it will be re-evaluated tomorrow", however, nuance Sélim Miled, according to whom, "it is the principle of uncertainty in management of crisis". "We make anticipations, we see in which direction the situation can evolve, we outline the decisions that we will take according to the scenarios, and every day, we reassess these evaluation and emancipation hypotheses (... ) to move forward and not be surprised, "he said again. "Every day, we reassess".
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"We test things," says Selim Miled, "which allows you to adapt all the time." "We are going to go in one direction, maybe make the decision to cancel a certain type of event to see what is the impact on the spread of the virus, and in function, we will learn more and reassess and readapt the next day ".
"Efficient" government management
According to Sélim Miled, the current crisis management is "effective, adapted, with good use of the precautionary principle". "We may have had a start-up delay on recommendations to companies," notes the expert, however.