It is a direct, clear and symbolic message of the issue represented by the Iraqi security forces. By calling on Monday, January 27, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi to "preserve the sovereignty of Iraq" in the face of "attacks" by Iran, in the aftermath of a rocket attack on the United States embassy In Baghdad, the American secretary of state Mike Pompeo implicated without naming them the Hachd al-Chaabi, these Shiite militias under Iranian influence.
The press release from the State Department, which points to an "inability" of the Iraqi government "to control these dangerous armed groups", is particularly severe. The Iraqi Prime Minister is thus put on notice to regain control over all the Iraqi security forces, now divided and at the heart of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran, but also of the demands of the protest movement which started October 1st.
>> Read: Iranian influence in Iraq, target of protesters' anger
"Between the special units of the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF), more commonly known as the Golden Division, the regular army and the Hachd al-Chaabi, also called Popular Mobilization Units (MP), the forces of security forces are made up of three main forces, but which do not all pursue the same objectives ", underlines David Rigoulet-Roze, teacher and researcher attached to the French Institute of strategic analysis (Ifas), editor-in-chief of the review Orients strategic, contacted by France 24. "Like the government, the Iraqi armed forces, which are widely conceived as internal security forces, are torn between two poles with the United States on one side and the other Iran, "he adds.
- The Golden Division
Pride of Iraq, the Golden Division is the fruit of training work carried out by the United States after the Iraqi army's debacle in the summer of 2014 against the Islamic State Organization (OEI) and is made up of soldiers from all faiths and ethnicities in the country. Created in 2003 after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, the Golden Division was to be an anti-terrorist force capable of responding quickly to insurrections. Under former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (2008-2014), however, it became an instrument for controlling power. The population then nicknamed it "Dirty Division". But the arrival of Haider al-Abadi at the head of the Iraqi government is a game-changer.
"The strategic failure of summer 2014 against Daesh served as an electric shock and, under the impetus of Abadi and General al-Kenani, commander of the Iraqi Counterterrorism Service (ICTS), the Golden Division eventually find its luster, "says David Rigoulet-Roze. Taleb Cheghati al-Kenani notably succeeded in imposing his loyalty to the Iraqi state without fail. Its recipe is made up of three ingredients, according to Michael Knights, an Iraqi army specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, contacted by France 24: a contingent that has never exceeded 12,500 men, making it possible to maintain a level high selection and great cohesion; a salary twice as high as in the regular army with better living conditions; equipment comparable to that of the American special forces.
The Golden Division quickly became essential to the international coalition led by the United States to retake Iraqi territory from the OEI. Supported by American air strikes, it obtained prestigious victories on the ground, such as the recovery of Mosul, in October 2016. This enshrined Lieutenant-General Abdelwahab al-Saadi, who then became a national hero.
>> To see: The Golden Division, on the front line of the fights in Mosul
Under American influence, this elite unit is however contested by the militias of Hachd al-Chaabi and by those, within the Iraqi capacity, which prefer to turn towards Iran. They manage to obtain, at the end of September 2019, the head of Abdelwahab al-Saadi. "His efficiency, integrity and close to the Americans posed a significant problem for the Hachd al-Chaabi who sought to reduce the weight of the Golden Division. He had a military scope which allowed him to put his nose in certain Hachd al- Chaabi operating outside the control of the State and it represented as such an obstacle to their maneuvers, which displeased the Iranians greatly, "analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze.
The dismissal of the man whom the Iraqis had dubbed "The Incorruptible" was not without consequence: for many observers, this was the trigger for the anti-government protest which began on October 1.
- The Hashd al-Chaabi
The Hachd al-Chaabi - Popular Mobilization Forces in French - were formed in the summer of 2014 in response to a call for jihad against the Islamic State organization launched by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Thousands of men then join the ranks of this "popular mobilization" and several dozen militias are set up, the vast majority Shiites and under the direct influence of Iran, which sends political and military advisers to the field.
These militias played a non-negligible role in the reconquest of the territories in front of the OEI but also committed numerous abuses: torture, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial executions targeting the Sunni populations have been denounced by Amnesty International in particular. Crimes that went unpunished by an Iraqi state forced to rely on these military forces to drive the OEI out of the country.
"The Hachd al-Chaabi were officially recognized as a component of the Iraqi army by a law passed in November 2016, with their own budget. The new government of Adel Abdel-Mehdi also issued a decree in July 2019 for "Make this integration into the regular army effective," said David Rigoulet-Roze. "The problem is that these militias have remained largely autonomous, obeying only Iran."
When the Iraqi Prime Minister asked the militia occupying the Nineveh province in the north of the country in early summer 2019 to leave this area, no one abandoned his position. With the help of Iran, the Hashd al-Chaabi have gradually extended their grip on Iraq, infiltrating political and economic circles. A grip that was the work of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and his Iraqi right-hand man, Abou Mehdi al-Mouhandis, both murdered by the United States during a drone strike in Baghdad on January 3.
"Putting these militias in line is a considerable stake from now on for the future of Iraq, estimates Michael Knights, Washington Institute for Near East Policy. But at present, the capacity is completely under their influence and made in a way that favors Iranian influence. The sidelining of General Saadi of the Golden Division and other generals of the regular army is proof of this. "
- The regular army
As the last component of the Iraqi armed forces, the regular army can only remember the status it enjoyed in the early 1990s, when it was the fourth largest in the world in terms of manpower - behind China, the Soviet Union and the United States. Two Gulf wars and a civil war later, the Iraqi army, although benefiting from a substantial budget, no longer looks like anything.
"Everyone in the Iraqi government is making fun today of whether the army is effective or not, because they believe that the Hachd al-Chaabi militias are sufficient at the local level, says Michael Knights. The whole political system is corrupt from top to bottom and it also affects the military. "
It hit rock bottom in 2014. Unable to cope with the Islamic State organization advancing on the country, knocking cities down one after the other, the regular army became the laughingstock of the country when its men fled during the Battle of Mosul. They leave behind 2,300 Humvee-type military vehicles and large quantities of weapons that fall into the hands of the OEI. The fiasco is total.
A few months later, the image of the army was further tarnished by the "ghost soldiers" affair. Eager to understand the reasons for the Mosul debacle, the new Prime Minister, Haïder al-Abadi, ordered an audit which revealed the existence of 50,000 non-existent soldiers, deserters or dead but whose fictitious presence in the registers enabled their officers to pocket their wages. Instead of the 25,000 soldiers officially stationed in Mosul on the eve of the fighting against the OEI, there were actually only 10,000 there, according to Reuters.
Where is the regular army today? "The problem is that training soldiers properly for counter-insurgency takes years and years," says Michael Knights. "And when some overwhelmed officers manage to get results, they are replaced and their men stop. 'coach and fail to maintain a minimum level of professionalism to remain effective.'
Regular army equipment is also a source of problems, including vehicles unsuited to guard against anti-personnel mines and the lack of night vision equipment. "It's an army that can only fight during the day," says Michael Knights. "If enemies attack a city at night, it can do nothing."
Will the Iraqi state one day manage to regain control of all its security forces? Between a Golden Division which is the greatest success of the American formation since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Hachd al-Chaabi under direct influence of Iran and a regular army which is struggling to keep up, the future Prime Minister expected to replace Adel Abdel Mahdi will be faced with many questions.
"The government is today divided between two poles of influence, analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze. Even if Baghdad has officially requested the departure of American troops, the Kurds and the Sunnis are not on the same line and have not passed the parliamentary resolution presented on January 5. As for the Shiites, a part of them, animated by the nationalist spring, would undoubtedly wish, even without openly admitting it, to preserve a certain dualism between the respective influences of their two bulky godfathers, because it would paradoxically be a way of preserving a semblance of sovereignty and avoiding falling completely under the thumb of Iran.
While Iraq is once again living in chaos, negotiations between the various Iraqi parties to find a next head of government will be decisive: on his identity will indeed depend the future of the Iraqi security forces, and through them a part of the country's sovereignty.
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