It is a major step before considering a peace process. The international conference organized on Sunday at the initiative of Berlin will bring together all the major players in the Libyan conflict, with the hope at first of strengthening the fragile truce respected on the ground for a week. A sign of the difficulties to be overcome, Marshal Khalifa Haftar had left Russia on January 14 without signing the cease-fire agreement concocted by Moscow and Ankara, however initialed by his rival Fayez al-Sarraj. The seven hours of negotiations had taken place through Russian and Turkish intermediaries, the two men refusing to communicate directly.
The meeting must also prevent the internationalization of the conflict, in particular by military support, and discuss ways to get out of the country plunged into chaos since the fall of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Decryption with Emmanuelle Chaze, correspondent for France 24 in the German capital, and Jalel Harchaoui, researcher at the Clingendael Institute.
Who is expected in Berlin?
"This conference has been planned for last summer, explains Emmanuelle Chaze. It is already in itself a success for the German government. Angela Merkel's tour de force is to bring together so many actors present on the ground Libyan in the same place. " The leaders of the two rival factions in Libya will be present: Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Government of National Unity (GNA) in Tripoli supported by the United Nations and the European Union, and Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the man Fort in the east of the country, at the head of the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army.
The two sponsors of the current truce, Russia and Turkey, who have established themselves in recent weeks as key players in the conflict despite their divergent interests, will be represented at the highest level with Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
French Head of State Emmanuel Macron will also participate in the conference, as will the American Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, the United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and his envoy for the Libyan file, Ghassan Salamé. "For all these actors, the priority on Sunday will be to start a diplomatic process, to allow everyone to communicate directly."
What is the purpose of the meeting?
The ceasefire orchestrated by Vladimir Poutine and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, implemented on January 12, is currently respected but fragile. The main aim of the international conference in Berlin is to consolidate the truce and prevent the internationalization of the conflict, notably by interposing a military force. "The priority in Berlin is first of all the cessation of hostilities, a cease-fire, explains on France 24 Jalel Harchaoui. In the roadmap which will undoubtedly be signed by the two protagonists, there will be elements which are about reconciliation and a political solution, with institutional measures, such as unifying a national army. " But, emphasizes the researcher, "there is not really any possible reconciliation in the short term. (...) If the German initiative manages to solidify this cease-fire, it will be a form of victory for the German and European diplomacy. "
What's going on in the field?
The forces of Marshal Haftar launched in April 2019 an offensive in an attempt to seize Tripoli. In nine months, more than 280 civilians and 2,000 combatants have been killed, according to the UN. Some 146,000 Libyans were also forced to flee the fighting.
"Marshal Haftar's stated and explicit objective is to take downtown Tripoli, specifies Jalel Harchaoui. When we look at a map of Libya, he controls about 85% of the territory. The problem is that the area that "it cannot penetrate comprises 45% of the population. Either you look at the geographic area and you have the impression that Marshal Haftar is near the finish line. Or you look at the reality of this urban war which started on April 4 and which is supported by many states: these states support a foal that does not manage to penetrate a gigantic demographic zone. "
What are the stakes of the conflict?
"The main reason for the conflict is not oil, says Jalel Harchaoui. The real reasons are first of all ideological in nature. The country is so small demographically, so rich and well located geographically that any ideology that would succeed if peace arises will provide a model for the rest of the region. This is why extremely disciplined, stubborn and even stubborn actors like the United Arab Emirates are involved in Libya. They don't need Libyan oil. very concerned about the political model that is likely to emerge in Tripoli. This is very ideological. "
Why is the EU so involved?
"For the European Union, there is a major challenge: that of migratory movements, explains Emmanuelle Chaze. Libya is one of the gateways to Europe for migrants. As Germany is the one of the countries which receives the most refugees in Europe and which contributes the most financially in Libya on these migratory questions, it has every interest to be heard. "
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