Is Trump's deal with Iran possible?

Despite the fact that public relations between the USA and Iran today look worse than nowhere, nevertheless both parties are closer than ever to a new agreement and are actually ready to start a dialogue. And that's why.

The first is the economic collapse in Iran. Official Tehran loves to use sentimental rhetoric: “Why Iranians are tormented by such cruel sanctions, this is unfair!” Iran has been waging proxies in the region for decades, and for it war is Husits, weapons and training, weapons of rebels and tribes, superintelligence, brilliant local special operations, purchased policies of the region. As part of its understanding of the war, Iran provoked Trump into open hostilities all spring. He lured him to his battlefield, where he feels at home confidently.

But Trump is a businessman, he did not want to get bogged down in other people's sands, from where he would not have emerged victorious. He chose his method.

Trump sanctions are economic precision missile attacks on Iran. And today we can take stock of the effectiveness of this economic war.

So, the true reasons for the November increase in gas prices in Iran and the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of fuel inside the country, which brought people to the streets in 90 cities of the country, were voiced by Hamid Hosseini, Secretary General of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce: “Reducing domestic demand could increase Iranian exports "190 thousand barrels of gas per day, bringing an additional annual income of $ 5 billion per year, most fuel supplies will go to Iraq and Afghanistan."

"We have unofficial sales, all of them are secret, because if they become known, America will immediately stop them," echoes him Bijan Zangane, Iranian Minister of Petroleum.

Under the conditions of sanctions, the Iranian authorities frantically seek a way out and increase the volume of petrochemical exports (which they still have to sell at a discount of 10-15% of global prices). Thus, the export revenue of gasoline and petrochemicals rose to $ 10 billion in three months, which is 6% more than the same period last year, according to the Iranian customs administration. But the ring of opportunity is narrowing day after day. Complicated figures are understandable for the population with prices for essential products: fresh fruits rose by 71%, dairy products - by 30%, chicken - by 20%.

Iran is experiencing the deepest economic downturn in three decades. Before negotiations with the United States, begun in 2013, the trade balance amounted to 7% of GDP, now it is 3%. Oil exports fell by 70%, while oil sales fell to 500 thousand against 1.1 million barrels in 2013, The Wall Street Journal reports.

According to the IMF, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves currently amount to $ 86 billion, which is 20% lower than in 2013. Moreover, then, in 2013, when the spiritual leader gave carte blanche to President Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Zarif for nuclear talks with the West, the Iranian leadership seemed that the economic situation had bottomed out and could not be worse. It turned out that it could.

Brian Hook, the State Department’s special envoy for Iran, said Tehran has access to only 10% of these reserves because US sanctions do not allow them to be used.

“If Iran is going to prevent a further fall, it will have to burn even more reserves,” he said.

Adds Iranian gasoline to the fire and Mark Dubovits of the Foundation for the Protection of Democracies, one of the co-authors of the economic war with Iran: “Even if Iran has access to the full amount of reserves, it will have to burn another 20% of reserves to maintain the existing exchange rate and keep inflation, which is 36% higher than in 2013. If they do not have full access to these reserves, this could trigger a balance of payments crisis and further collapse, since Iran will not be able to buy the equipment and technologies necessary to support its economy. Loss of lending ability or access to their reserves could lead to a crisis requiring international intervention, similar to the 2010 crisis in Greece. ”

Alas, Iran’s military strategists building impeccable Iran’s geopolitical architecture in the Middle East have not calculated that the United States is able to bankrupt the country, strangle it with sanctions so much that it doesn’t even have to drop bombs.

The partners Iran was counting on to survive under US sanctions took a wait-and-see attitude: China is quietly buying Iranian discount oil (20 million barrels of Iranian oil are in customs custody off the coast of China), moreover, it pays more with a “natural exchange” scheme rather than with money, Russia promises a loan of $ 5 billion, but so far is "considering the issue." Asian brothers are sitting on the shore and waiting for a tiger to swim by.

It would seem a stalemate.

But with all this, Iran can use it for behind-the-scenes trading with the United States for its own benefit. Because right now, even the most “irreconcilable” players in Iran in the region are inclined to agree with him.

Part of the Israeli establishment expressed dissatisfaction with Trump’s policy towards Iran: he did not start a war with him, as some Israeli hawks expected, but he brought Iran closer to creating an atomic bomb.

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, cited in the Jerusalem Post large editorial, warned that if Iran relaunches a significant number of its advanced IR-2m centrifuges, the time to develop enough enriched material for the bomb will be reduced to six months. Bottom line: Iran today is closer to the bomb than in May, and closer than if Trump had not refused the deal. This deal would be better.

Paradoxically, the chances of a good deal with the Americans are given by an important historical moment - on December 12, 2019, Saudi Aramco's capitalization reached a record $ 1870 billion, which is more expensive than Google and Amazon combined.

But the entire infrastructure of Saudi Arabia is under the round-the-clock sight of the Yemenite Hussites working for Iran. And Iran itself at the highest level promised to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the global oil trade. And he didn’t just promise: the missile attacks on Saudi tankers from spring to autumn made the Gulf oil monarchies very nervous.

While Iran is stifled with sanctions and prevented from selling its oil, it poses a threat not only to Saudi Arabia in the Strait of Hormuz, but also to oil exports and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Will Prince Bin Salman be willing to take risks when Saudi Aramco is at the top of the world and its capitalization today depends on barefoot Yemenite Hussites? Or prefers to agree?

Knowing the mentality of the Iranian leadership and the notorious Persian pride, it is clear that they will not come to Trump on their knees. But if they can intelligently use a unique historical moment, they will make one of the most beautiful deals in history (the economic loop on the neck contributes to the adoption of reasonable decisions).

Even the impeachment of trump is playing into Iran’s hands now. Certainly wounded Trump, who is planning to run for a second term, can make a historic deal with Iran, which psychologically eliminates the shame of “impeachment” and makes Trump a winner.

And the Iranians are already preparing him a tempting package of proposals.

On December 9, the first American for Trump’s rule was released from an Iranian prison, and immediately Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif suggested that the United States carry out a complete exchange of all prisoners between the countries, which, of course, is a powerful signal of readiness for a “reset”.

Trump responded on Twitter: “The one who was arrested under Obama’s rule has been released by the Trump administration. Thanks to Iran for the very honest negotiations. I see we can make a deal together! ”

And also - apparently, on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Zarif handed over to the United States and personally to Trump another tempting offer - to finally bring order to Afghanistan through intra-Afghan negotiations with the Taliban **. Which is very opportune: Ashraf Ghani, the "American" technocrat who won the second election, will not be able to negotiate with the mediators, and Iran and the head of Al-Quds, General Suleymani, can offer him and the United States.

Against the background of the reduction of the American grouping of troops in Afghanistan from 13 thousand to 8600 and Trump’s desire to end the “endless American wars” for the November 2020 elections, Trump can appreciate the Iranian proposal. Moreover, Afghanistan is hardly the longest US military campaign, 19 years long.

Under the Nobel peacekeeper Obama, the United States took part in four military campaigns. “And Trump, whom you Americans have thanked you so thanklessly to impeach, is economic growth, reducing unemployment and returning Americans alive, not in coffins with the American flag,” is Trump’s strategy, which he has been implementing since 2016.

According to the Pentagon, from 2001 to 2014, 1843 soldiers were killed in the fighting in Afghanistan, more than 20 thousand were injured. From 2003 to 2012, 4485 people died in Iraq, 31 953 people were injured.

President Trump knows a lot about PR and marketing, he is a businessman who wears a red tie, loves to make successful deals and look like a winner. When the hawk Bolton incited him to war, he simply fired Bolton. He wants to go down in history as the man who made America great without a single shot. If Iran could understand the psychology of the President of the United States, he could play this game with a score of 1: 1, where everyone would look like winners.

Because Iran needs the lifting of sanctions, the unfreezing of assets and the recognition of Iran’s truly exceptional role in the fight against ISIS * in the region. Because all that Iran has been doing in the region in recent years is actually a desperate message from the USA: “You can’t do it without me, you have to reckon with me!”

The order in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, the security of strategic oil export straits also depend on Iran. Because he achieved that geopolitical weight when the establishment of order in the region without it is already impossible. Iran has a 200,000th army of proxies in the region, and the Pentagon has a good military budget for the continuation of military operations in Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen in $ 71.5 billion for 2020.

An interesting nuance - in September 2019, when I last arrived in Tehran, from the high fence of the American embassy in Tehran, which has not been working since 1979, the curses and graffiti with genies and satan against the United States were first washed away.

Timing and time are running out for everyone. American sanctions brought down the Iranian economy and, despite the fact that the protest was controlled and suppressed, Tehran does not want to play with fire. Trump has an election on his nose, and he needs a resounding victory to go down in history as a triumphant president and win the election. China is pulling the signing of a deal with the United States, and this is clearly not a victory that can impress the American voter after impeachment - it is not pulling on the covers and historical photographs.

But if Trump becomes the first president in 40 years of history to reopen the US embassy in Tehran (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been housed there in recent years), this will be a powerful symbol of modern American history. This can cross out impeachment.

Politics is the art of the possible, and it all depends on how both sides own this art.

* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.

** “Taliban” - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.