What happens to the economy after the earthquake directly below the capital December 18th 15:59

“The price of water is five times higher and a black market is created.”

It is not a postwar Japanese story. This is one of the “forecasts of Japan's future” after an earthquake directly below the capital by an economist. A round-table discussion of economists who predicted the impact on the economy after the earthquake, opened by NHK. The “worst scenario” that came out there was just a surprising situation that might await Japan.
(Social Reporter Shu Morino / Director, Tokyo Metropolitan Broadcasting Center Director)

What is the economy after the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake? I asked an economist

"95 trillion yen in one year" (Cabinet Office) "731 trillion yen in 20 years" (Japan Society of Civil Engineers)

This is an assumption of economic damage after an earthquake directly under the capital. I understand that it is a tough number, but I cannot honestly imagine what the situation is awaiting.

When I went to consult with Dr. Shingo Nagamatsu, a senior researcher at the National Institute of Disaster Science and Technology, who studies disasters and economics, he suggested that "How about listening directly to a detailed person?" Therefore, with the cooperation of Mr. Nagamatsu, we decided to ask private economists who make economic forecasts every day about “the economy after the earthquake just below the capital”.

Experts are surprised by the survey results ...

The first thing I did was a questionnaire for private economists. The survey was conducted on 38 people, and responses were received from 23 people. Here are some of them.

Although it was an answer that had a negative impact on the Japanese economy, there were many negative responses such as “somewhat”.

"Isn't that a big impact?"

I thought so, but it seemed surprising to Mr. Nagamatsu, an expert in disaster economics.

Dr. Nagamatsu, “National Disaster Science and Technology Institute” “Disasters do not necessarily have a negative impact on the economy. For example, reconstruction demand often has a positive impact on the economy. It was surprising to me that economists said that the earthquake directly under the capital would have a negative impact on the Japanese economy. ''

“A world without a price”? One after another prediction of impact

We held a round-table talk with the four economists who answered the questionnaire and listened to them.

Mr. Shinichiro Kobayashi of Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting says that an unprecedented situation is expected immediately after the earthquake. This is because Tokyo's logistics are cut off and food and water shortages become more serious.

Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Mr. Kobayashi “I think that it will not be strange even if the“ world where the list price disappears ”already comes. The price of goods was 100 yen before the earthquake, but it must be sold at 200 yen. I'm going to buy something like "Yamiichi" and buy it for as much as you want, so if you sell it, it may continue to be sold. "

Bloomberg Economics's Yuki Masushima points out that another factor could lead to price increases.

Bloomberg Economics Mr. Masushima “I think online shopping has been increasing recently, and distribution warehouses of internet companies have stopped working, and logistics has stopped, which is the toughest situation in Japan. I think it ’s going to be about buying 5 or 10 times if you need it. ”

Even in the past disasters such as the Great East Japan Earthquake, rumors such as “Chinese cabbage is sold for 1000 yen per ball” and “Rice balls cost 1000 yen per day” flew. A serious situation may occur in a Tokyo earthquake.

One dollar 200 yen! Can't buy things from abroad

It is said that this situation may be prolonged. What economists are concerned about is the weak yen. Mizuho Securities' Toru Suehiro says:

Mizuho Securities Mr. Suehiro “It is assumed that Japanese government bonds will be dangerous, and financial and monetary policies will be tied up. I do not think that Japan will fail. I think it's possible that 100 yen per dollar can be 200 yen. ''

If one dollar goes from 100 yen to 200 yen, the price of goods imported from overseas will be "doubled" by simple calculation. What happens at that time? Mr. Kobayashi of Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting points out:

Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Mr. Kobayashi “When a Japanese company buys goods from overseas, it will be“ I can't buy it in yen anymore, it can only be sold in foreign currency ”. I will become. ''

A company that overlooks Japan

What will happen to the company? According to an economist questionnaire, 91% of foreign-affiliated companies branch offices and offices answered 83% of manufacturing bases in the domestic manufacturing industry.

Mr. Kei Takeda of ITOCHU Research Institute explains why.

Mr. Takeda, ITOCHU Research Institute “If Japan's brand image drops due to a natural disaster, if you look around Asia, you may be in Singapore, China, or Shanghai. Collecting is a good story. ''

“Tax increase” “Increase of disparity” What is ...

Under these circumstances, the “tax increase” has an impact on our lives. In the questionnaire, 83% of economists say there is a possibility of a tax increase for reconstruction funds. Mr. Suehiro of Mizuho Securities points out “increasing disparity”.

Mizuho Securities Mr. Suehiro “If the recovery tax increase is wide and shallow, it will be a pattern in which low-income earners will become more burdensome than high-income earners, which will lead to disparities. "

Mr. Masushima of Bloomberg Economics points out the possibility of “dividing” between Tokyo and the region.

Bloomberg Economics Mr. Masushima “Now, there are many high-income people in the Kanto area such as Tokyo, and the income is lower in rural areas. The recovery tax has increased, and the burden on one person is 20,000 or 30,000 yen per month. Then, it might be argued that local people have to be taken for recovery where they do not live. ''

Risks of earthquakes directly below the capital

The discussions of economists were not exhausted. Other predictions include “a drastic decrease in foreign tourists”, “stop construction work nationwide”, “global stock price decline”, “risk of financial collapse”, and “transition capital”. The round-table talks are nearing the end, and each economist said that the risks after the earthquake directly below the capital are linked to the “current problems” of Tokyo and Japan.

Mr. Suehiro Mizuho Securities “When talking about the earthquake that occurred directly under the capital, the problems were that it was concentrated in the capital, the financial situation was bad,“ Japan already has ” I think it's very important to discuss it now, in order to prepare for an earthquake directly under the capital. "

Mr. Takeda, ITOCHU Research Institute “The earthquake that is closely related to the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake is the risk of Tokyo's extreme concentration, and we must rethink the risks of improving efficiency. I think it ’s a correction. ”

“It's not just a problem in Tokyo”

Mr. Nagamatsu of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention concluded the roundtable discussion as follows.

Dr. Nagamatsu, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention “The earthquake in Tokyo is not only a problem in Tokyo. We need to think seriously about what we can do to minimize the damage and financial impact of disasters, not what we do now. ''

This time, we conducted a questionnaire and a roundtable discussion with economists. Serious “future risks” after the earthquake just below the capital, which are related to our daily lives, have emerged one after another. What can we do now to avoid this “worst-case scenario”? I will continue to think through interviews in the future.

Social reporter
Shu Morino

Tokyo Metropolitan Broadcasting Center Director