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A Europe of zero emissions in 2050, with a reduction of 55% in 2030 and with 100,000 million euros for a Fair Transition Fund that helps industrial reconversion in the regions and sectors most dependent on fossil fuels. These are the keys to the expected Green Agreement broken down today by the European Commission in Brussels.

A road map more than a reality, a desire more than a fact . A total way of thinking about politics, the economy and the environment. "We want to reconcile the economy with the planet. The Green Agreement means cutting emissions, but also creating jobs and driving innovation. The growth model based on pollution is outdated. The Green Agreement is our new growth strategy. It gives us more than that takes us away and serves to do things differently for real. But without leaving anyone behind, "President Ursula von der Leyen explained Wednesday.

With the Climate Summit (COP25) about to conclude in Madrid, and on the eve of a European Council in Brussels, in which the leaders of the 28 must decide whether or not to commit to a neutrality of emissions in 2050, the Commission has presented its already famous European Green Agreement.

The institution has focused on the project in recent weeks, organizing meetings, declarations, briefings and an appearance before the European Chamber. But in the substance, little that was not known or that will materialize immediately.

Objective: emission neutrality in 2050

The climate issue is one of the priorities of the new president Ursula von der Leyen. But times and procedures in the EU are always complicated. The ultimate goal is emission neutrality by 2050, but there is no agreement for that right now. This Thursday, the Heads of State and Government will discuss it in the community capital, but there are a number of countries, with Poland, Hungary or the Czech Republic always among the highlights, who are reluctant. Therefore, the draft conclusions that the 28 hope to approve have a "constructively vague" language, as defined by European sources.

"In the light of the latest available scientific evidence, and given the need to act, the European Council supports the objective of achieving climate neutrality in the EU by 2050, in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement," says the first paragraph. of the document that EL MUNDO has had access to. They support the objective, but they do not commit to it.

And it is not said that they will achieve each and every one of the members individually, in what many consider the price to pay in diplomatic language to be able to agree something. "My experience that the outcome of the political meeting cannot be anticipated. There is ongoing discussion, necessary with certain countries," explained the president of the European Council, Charles Michel this morning, recalling that any climate negotiations involving money will have to be held in parallel to the negotiation on the EU Multiannual Financial Framework, which will still take several months.

Reduce emissions by up to 55% in 2030

In Von der Leyen's proposal on Wednesday, several seemingly powerful figures. The first is to raise ambition, moving from the initial objective of cutting gross emissions by 40% in 2030 to reducing them by 50% and up to 55% if possible. The second: 100,000 million euros, which are what the German hopes to activate. " We want to mobilize 100,000 million euros , dedicated to the regions and sectors most affected" by the process, said Von der Leyen today.

"We still don't have all the answers, but today is the beginning of a long journey. This is the 'man on the moon' moment for Europe ."

To this end, the Commission proposes to create a Just Transition Mechanism with a specific economic fund, linked to that Multiannual Financial Framework, the EU budget for the next sexennium. A fund with up to 100,000 million euros. Where does the money come from? According to today's proposal, which will take shape in January, "it will use and combine several sources of financing: the EU budget, national budgets through co-financing, the European Investment Bank and incentives for private funds." Brussels will put money, but also "personalized technical assistance and regulatory flexibility that is necessary for regions to succeed in their transition."

In addition, Von der Leyen wants legal force to be enforced in spring, a true Climate Law that makes the goals for 2050 binding and is legally developed at all levels.

Calculations in Brussels estimate that an additional 260,000 million euros of investment , around 1.5% of GDP, will be necessary to achieve the current 2030 objectives, which requires public and private effort.

In January, the Commission will develop a European Sustainable Investment Plan. And a strategy to try to push forward a border carbon rate, something that technically and politically is very complicated but that tries to remedy a complicated reality: companies that in Europe have to meet a series of standards but that if they manufacture outside , no. With a handicap that significantly damages the competitiveness of those who meet the continental rules.

Von der Leyen will have to convince the leaders today, especially from Eastern countries. Skeptical, reluctant and very concerned about the economic consequences of that green transition. For that there is the Transition Funding, and on their ability and credibility to convince them, success will depend, at least in this first phase. If in the week of COP25 the EU is unable to offer any convincing compromise, or to show that it truly believes in the change, the Commission's great commitment to the legislature will start already touched.

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