Three crises immediately below the Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake seen in "Hell Pictures" and "Damage Tree" December 6, 20:42

“This is close to Japan's“ hell picture ””

Over the years, specialists in disaster research have murmured to see something. This is NHK's first “stricken tree” for the earthquake directly under the capital. Over 2000 damage has been revealed. From “untreated death” to “housing refugees” to “financial failure”. In the process of making, I saw three major crises waiting one after another for somehow survived the earthquake.
("Disasters with no end" coverage)

All the possible damages

In early October, six experts gathered at the NHK Broadcasting Center. This is to create a “stricken tree” for the earthquake directly under the capital. Reconstruction, management system, medical care, support for victims, psychology, and urban disaster prevention. This is an unprecedented attempt to gather together experts from different fields and try to write down all the possible damage caused by the earthquake directly under the capital.

What I wrote down is the damage that experts think can occur from "Past Disasters" and "Latest Research". Write down the damage that each of them thought on a sticky note and stick it to the wall. After seven hours of study, the wall was filled with damage tags. Will this happen when the earthquake hits the Tokyo metropolitan area? The news gathering team was stunned.

What are the “three crises” after the earthquake

This “stricken tree” is a collection of sticky notes that have been exported and arranged in chronological order by linking them to each related event. As a result of interviews, the total number of damages was over 2,100. There is too much damage to occur, and even if it is a single screen, the characters for each event cannot be seen. I will introduce the analysis.

Damage to housing, infrastructure, economy, industry, etc. that occurred immediately after the Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake. Branching from there, the situation of the disaster is chained one after another. It has been found that over the course of one week, one month, and one year after the earthquake, damage continues and becomes more serious. Analyzing the details of the damaged tree reveals three crises that await after surviving. "Crisis of life", "Crisis of life", and "Social crisis".

With the disruption of the “life crisis” lifeline

Analyze the damage tree in detail.

Immediately after the earthquake, items related to the “life crisis” continue to increase.

Experts noted that in addition to the assumed “death” such as the collapse of houses and fires, the survivors also have a huge risk of “death”.

Around one week after the earthquake, the major cause of the “stricken chain” is the disruption of lifelines such as power outages and water outages.

For example, “water shortage” at a shelter. It is expected to last for a maximum of one month.

From there, in addition to "dehydration", "difficulty in using toilet" etc. It leads to the risk of various diseases.

Many destinations are “earthquake-related deaths”. You can see that the risk of "death" comes from various causes.

“Untreated death” on an unprecedented scale

In addition, the last fort / hospital that saves surviving lives also falls into a serious situation due to a power outage.

If a power outage occurs and the emergency power supply stops due to insufficient fuel ... Any device such as “respiratory device” or “testing device” can no longer be used, leading to “untreated death”.

How big is this “untreated death”? Using this discussion as a reference, a simulation was performed with the cooperation of Prof. Akira Fuse (Emergency Medicine) of Nippon Medical University who participated in the tree creation.

In addition to the shortage of medical staff, the accumulation of factors such as power outages and water outages revealed that “untreated deaths” could amount to over 7,400 people within 8 days of the earthquake.

This “untreated death”. It is not included in the estimated 23,000 deaths in the country's estimated damage from the earthquake directly under the capital.

After surviving the earthquake, I found out that many people could die.

Professor Fuse said, “We can't deny that there are quite a few“ related deaths. ”We have to be prepared for situations that we have never experienced before.

"Living crisis", particularly serious housing shortage

One month after the earthquake. This is the time when lifeline restoration will progress.

From the analysis of the damaged tree, the “life crisis” was the second most visible after the “life crisis”. A particularly serious problem is the lack of housing.

According to the country's assumptions, there are 3.14 million homes that are completely destroyed by the earthquake directly below the capital. What happens to those who have suffered damage at home? Analyze in the damage tree.

What can be seen here is the occurrence of a large number of “resident refugees”. I think it's an unfamiliar word, but this time I used to describe a person who couldn't secure a place to live and lost his place.

There are a variety of factors. One of the big things is the shortage of temporary housing. It is derived from “Prefab temporary production stop” and “Deemed temporary shortage” using rental housing.

What will happen to “housing refugees” after that?

Looking at the tree, in addition to “prolonging shelter life”, there is also a large amount of “evacuation outside the Tokyo metropolitan area”. It may also lead to “family disparity”.

The damage of Tokyo, where the population is concentrated, creates an unprecedented “living crisis”.

Senshu University Professor Keiichi Sato (Urban Disaster Prevention)
“This is a particular issue of the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake, where Tokyo is too crowded and people live in high-risk locations, where disaster risks are high. Many residential refugees have nowhere to go and have broken homes. It ’s like staying in the house ”

"Crisis of Japanese society", poor life, widening disparity, national decline ...

One year after the Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake. The “disaster chain” that has occurred so far leads to the “crisis of Japanese society”. The impact of damage to the capital functions will spread throughout the country.

In the damage tree, “damage” derived from “economic and industrial damage” becomes prominent. Part of it.

From “increased deficit bonds” to “financial failure”. There is a risk that our wallets will be affected, such as “expansion of tax recovery”, “expansion of social security costs”, “expansion of living difficulties” and “expansion of disparity”.

In addition, looking at “disasters” one to ten years later, predictions that will make you want to cover your eyes continue, such as “increase in the number of unemployed people”, “declining population” and “leaving Japanese products”.

"Disaster tree" has tips for thinking about disaster prevention

So far, we have looked at a part of the “damage tree” analysis.

Prof. Kenji Watanabe (Management System) of Nagoya Institute of Technology, who originally proposed the creation of a tree to the interview team, spoke as follows.

Prof. Kenji Watanabe, Nagoya Institute of Technology “First of all, write down the elements of the disaster, and analyze the chain to see how far you can go back to prevent the damage. It should contain a lot of "tips" for

At the end of the study, the words of Prof. Masuki Murozaki (disaster recovery) from Hyogo Prefectural University, who has studied disasters both at home and abroad for many years, were impressive.

Prof. Masuki Murozaki, Hyogo Prefectural University “If you look 10 years after the“ stricken tree ”, you will be close to Japan's“ hell picture ”. If you don't have a sense of tension, you will not be able to face the next earthquake directly under the capital. "

To make the “stricken tree” a reality

This is the “worst scenario” that we have seen in the creation of the “stricken tree”, but there are many things we can do to reduce the damage.

As individuals can do, “disaster-related deaths” and “resident refugees” are more likely to be avoided by making buildings earthquake-resistant, fixing furniture, and storing water and food.

The long-term "social crisis" is an issue that cannot be changed by individuals, but it may be necessary to change the way Tokyo is centrally led by politics.

In order not to make this “stricken tree” real. I think it's important to keep thinking about what you can do now.

And we will give tips for that.

Analysis of this “stricken tree”. December 7th (Saturday), NHK Special “The Endless Disaster” will be broadcast from 9 pm, and we will tell you in detail along with the interviews with local sites.

▼ Supervised by “Damage Tree” Prof. Masuki Murozaki, Hyogo Prefectural University (Reconstruction / Fire)
Professor, Kenji Watanabe (Management System), Nagoya Institute of Technology
Nippon Medical University Professor Akira Fuse (Emergency Medicine)
National Institute for Crisis Management Education Nobue Kunizaki (support for victims)
Tohoku University Prof. Tsuneyuki Abe (Psychology)
Prof. Keiichi Sato, Senshu University (Urban Disaster Prevention)

▼ NHK Special “The Endless Disaster” Interview Team / Social Program Department Shota Tsuchida / Social Department Shu Morino Maria Kiyoki / Metropolitan Area Broadcasting Center Norihide Fujii Yuta Fujii