While Elizabeth Warren is arguing with Pete Buttidzhich for the minds and souls of young members of the LGBT community, Biden's grandfather confidently breaks ahead.
Last week, a change of leader took place in the camp of Democrats wishing to challenge President Trump in the 2020 election.
More recently, the main "surprise" among the candidates from the Democratic Party was considered to be Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren, who stubbornly and consistently cleared her path to victory. Warren's journey from campaign outsider to her favorite took seven months: she announced her entry into the race on February 9, and at the end of September she was seven points ahead of Democratic campaign leader - former vice president Joe Biden.
Leadership Warren first noted a survey of the University of Quinnipack (Connecticut). True, other polls, which are conducted in large numbers in the United States in anticipation of the election, still favored Biden. But on October 8, in the integrated ranking of RealClearPolitics, a Chicago-based institute that collects opinion polls from across the country, Warren also beat Biden, albeit only by 0.2 points.
The return trip (or rather, a fall from first place in the race to third) took less than a month from the senator from Massachusetts.
A recent poll by the same University of Quinnipack showed that Senator Elizabeth Warren’s support across the country has fallen by 50% over the past month. If in October - early November, 28% of the Democratic voters were ready to vote for it, now it is only 14%.
This fall is too sharp and too large to be declared a mere game of chance. Warren either made some fatal mistake, or backstage forces invisible to the observer began to play against her.
According to CNN analyst Chris Siliza, Warren’s main mistake was her active support for Medicare (“Free Medical Assistance for Everyone”). Already on October 15, when Warren was at the peak of her popularity, during the pre-election debate, she was attacked by opponents who criticized her for supporting a program that completely excluded private health insurance, and for not being able to clearly explain who would be for this universal health care pay. And the cost of the program, for a second, is, according to preliminary estimates, $ 20.5 trillion.
“That was Warren’s worst debate to date,” says Siliza. “There are many reasons to believe that Medicare’s Warren support for everyone, combined with her unsuccessful efforts to defend her position in the last two debates, has led to her current downgrade.”
Grandfather Biden again confidently escaped to first place, but from the second place, Warren was unceremoniously pushed aside by Peter Buttigic, better known as Mayor Pete. This curious character is really the mayor of South Bend (Indiana) and the first ever representative of the millennial generation (they are all born from 1981 to 2000), applying for the presidency of the United States. He is also a former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, a veteran of Afghanistan, a musician (Mayor Pete played Jimmy Hendrix's electric guitar during a televised speech), a devout Christian, and ... an openly gay man.
It is not easy to understand how the last two points are combined with each other, but the fight against discrimination against the LGBT community occupies an important place in the Buttigic election campaign.
Anyway, Mayor Pete is a great progressive, in fact the second B.Kh. Obama, whom he calls the "great leader." I must say that in the camp of the Democrats there is an implicit rivalry for the position of "Mr.’s beloved wife," that is, the candidate who will be praised and supported by the first black president of the United States. Since the Democratic Party is now clearly divided into several camps and this split is deepening, the authority of B.Kh. Obama, who managed to keep in check both the extreme left and the moderate, grew enormously among the Democrats. And his approval, of course, is a very powerful resource.
True, Joe Biden yesterday spoke out in the sense that Obama’s approval would not be needed, and would not be needed, even if the “battlefield” narrowed down to three people. But he explained this again by his proximity to the ex-president.
“Everyone already knows that I'm close to him,” Biden told reporters. “Therefore, I do not need his blessing.”
But this is, to put it mildly, deceit. The fact that between Biden and Obama ran a black cat in Washington is known, if not all, then very many.
Almost every Democratic presidential candidate began his campaign with what one of Obama’s closest advisers called “pilgrimage” —a trip to the West End, Washington, where Obama opened his personal office. These "walkers" reached Obama in early 2018 and continued to flow throughout the entire summer. Some candidates, however, ignored a visit to the West End office, such as Andrew Young and Tulsi Gabbard. But both Young and Gabbard are atypical Democrats, and they, frankly, have little chance.
For the rest - Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigic, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Steve Bullock and others - meeting with the former president was no less important than planning their campaign or starting meeting with voters. At least that's what the reputable Politico internet portal claims.
The meetings that the former US president holds in silence of his cabinet with the politicians participating in the race, at first glance, are intended for candidates seeking to receive wise advice and support from the “last democrat in the White House” to win the primaries. But in reality, Obama himself is more likely to need them: in this way he evaluates the candidates in order to choose from them the one who is able to challenge and defeat Donald Trump.
And so Joe Biden does not fit the role of this one, from the point of view of Obama. At least for now. This is evidenced not only by the fact that Obama has not yet expressed his support for Biden during the current campaign.
Before the 2016 elections, he generally discouraged Biden from participating in the race by betting on Hillary Clinton, and this was perceived by many as a black mark, as the outgoing presidents always fought to support their vice presidents. And in 2019, according to Politico, Obama told close friends from his circle that Biden “should earn” his support.
In addition, in an interview with one of the “pilgrims,” Obama mentioned Biden in a negative way: while discussing his 2008 campaign, the ex-president said that he had “a very close relationship with voters,” especially in Iowa, which now Unfortunately no. And he added: “Do you know who does not have it at all? Joe Biden. "
But which Democratic candidate can even boast that Obama expressed his support for him? The question is not simple. “With whom do we agree one hundred percent? - One of Obama's advisers grins in a conversation with Politico journalist Ryan Lyceum. “Yes, with no one.”
It would seem that Warren, with her commitment to Medicare for all, should be ideologically close to Obama, but it's not so simple. According to an Obama adviser, the ex-president tried to give Warren “some tips from his experience” about the Medicare program. Apparently, the senator from Massachusetts did not take into account the advice of the "guru from the West End" - and in vain, because someone, and Obama ate a flock of dogs on the problem of medical insurance. Nevertheless, in the same conversation with the Lyceum, Obama's adviser admitted that Warren could win the primaries: “This does not mean that Elizabeth (Warren. - K. B. ) should not be nominated ... We cannot afford to determine whether we support a person or not, based only on his position on one problem. ”
Obama is cautious, realizing that his voice can be a very important factor in winning the primaries. And he waits until three (or better) two rivals remain on the site (“battlefield,” as Biden puts it). And then, maybe ...
Although Warren collapsed in third place, she still remains in the top four. According to a Quinnipack University poll, the four looks like this: Biden climbed three points (24%), Mayor Pete climbed six points to 16%, Warren - 14%, Sanders - 13%.
Which of the four will receive Obama's “blessing” in the end, which can help win the primaries? That is the question that now occupies everyone in the Democrat camp.
In my opinion, Peter Buttidzhich has good chances here. As already noted, this is the first millennial, claiming to occupy the Oval Office of the White House. And millennials still make up a significant part of the ex-president’s “support group” (on the contrary, among millennials the percentage of approval of Donald Trump’s policy is extremely low).
And the support of the LGBT community, for which mayor Pete is on the board, can play a significant role. Apparently, realizing the importance of approval from sexual minorities, Warren challenged Buttigic in Iowa.
Buttigic bombed Iowa with a real bombardment of online and television commercials, increasing his recognition among voters, and then gave a speech at a rally where more than 13,000 people gathered - these, of course, are not the stadiums Trump once gathered, but for Iowa the figure is quite decent. And at the moment he has a very real opportunity to win the primaries, at least in Iowa.
Warren answered “asymmetrically” - during her meeting with voters in Iowa, she played a whole emotional scene, supporting a young representative of the LGBT community. When a 17-year-old high school student Raylene asked a 70-year-old Warren if there was a time in her life “when an important person for you didn’t accept you for who you are and how you dealt with it,” a Massachusetts senator told her a touching story from personal life, and then went to the schoolgirl, hugged her and whispered something in her ear. Raylene, of course, immediately revealed to CNN reporters what exactly Warren had told her: “You will go through this. Everything will be alright".
The “problem” of Raylene was that, although the next of kin knew about her orientation, the relatives who lived not with her and who visited her house on holidays were not aware of this. This situation made her “very nervous,” but after hugging Warren, things got better.
“I was so moved that she had the courage to answer this question differently than she said before. And that she cared for me, ”Raylin confessed to reporters.
Actually, Warren has always been an ardent advocate of the rights of the LGBT community and supported gay marriage, and in June this year, together with 17 other senators, she signed a letter to Secretary of State Pompeo asking him to explain why this Department of State decided not to issue an official statement this year dedicated to “ month of pride "LGBT. But the memory of voters is short, so she needed a touching story with a 17-year-old schoolgirl from Iowa.
It’s not clear whether it will help Warren defeat the young and energetic mayor Pete. In the meantime, the left-wing Democrat from Massachusetts and the right-wing Democrat from Indiana are fighting for the minds and souls of the LGBT community, the battlefield remains for the "moderate and neat" grandfather Biden.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.