So, the former mayor of New York, billionaire Michael Bloomberg, can become a candidate for president of the United States. Again. Maybe…
The fact is that the ex-town governor could several times and almost once became him (candidate). The latter happened in 2016. Then Bloomberg officially announced that he was going to speak in the elections as an independent candidate.
According to him, in the political menu proposed to the Americans (it was already clear that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would fight for the White House) there was no necessary dish - a moderate candidate who would not be a clown and at the same time would not be so clearly associated with the establishment.
In 2016, quite a lot of attention was paid to independent candidates. By the time Bloomberg made the decision, libertarian Gary Johnson and green spokeswoman Jill Stein had already entered the race. They were later accused of losing to Hillary. Stein especially got it. Until November 2016, both candidates were persuaded, including live on national television, "not to put their ambitions above the interests of the country," but they were not convinced. Bloomberg did not have to persuade for a long time. He spoke at a Democratic Party conference and, contrary to his previous statements, called Clinton “the right choice.” As it turned out, he never submitted documents for registration as a candidate for the highest state post in any state.
Despite several false starts, each time the rumors about the possible participation of Michael Bloomberg in the presidential race cause a certain stir. And this is perhaps one of the insoluble mysteries of the American political elite. For some reason, it is believed that the billionaire has every chance to defeat his more venerable, active and interesting rivals from the point of view of the program. Perhaps the press just loves Michael as a philanthropist and a big supporter of environmental protection, an activist for limiting the circulation of weapons and just a rich person who holds moderate views.
These views are so moderate that he can not decide on his party affiliation. Until the early 2000s, he was a democrat. He then registered in New York as a Republican to run for mayor (the former mayor of the city, Rudi Giuliani, was a Republican). Michael liked this post, and through the city council he pushed through the law on the third term of the mayor of the Big Apple. By then, Bloomberg fell out with the Republicans over his liberal beliefs and went on a third term as an independent candidate. In 2018, he again registered as a Democrat. So now he has to go through the internal party selection process.
And there are certain problems with this. The decision is made too late (if it is, of course, made). Michael Bloomberg clearly does not have time to participate in the primaries in two key states - Iowa and New Hampshire. Apparently, he will also have to skip the primary elections in Nevada and South Carolina. According to his representatives, he is going to start with the so-called Super Tuesday (March 3, 2020), when primaries will be held in 14 states, one associated territory (American Samoa) and among Americans abroad.
Theoretically, Bloomberg, missing the first four moves, does not lose much. Confident performance in California alone can compensate for his non-participation in the early primaries. But in reality, a lot depends on the start of the campaign.
The results in Iowa and New Hampshire set the tone for the entire intra-party race. Failure in these two states is not a problem, but non-participation obviously reduces interest in the candidate. The first stages of the selection are monitored by party activists of the rest of the states and very often adjust their preferences precisely according to their results.
In addition, some super tuesday states have very strict deadlines for registering candidates. In particular, Alabama will soon cease to accept relevant applications altogether, which is why Bloomberg’s team hastened to submit documents to the election commission of this state. But so far no more is known about a single package of documents submitted to the electoral commission. And the official status of a potential candidate is “a serious consideration of the issue”.
And that’s the whole Bloomberg politician. He loves to suspend intrigue and drag time to the last. In finance and stock trading (areas in which Michael is an undoubted ace), such tactics often bring good results. A proof of this is the ex-mayor’s multi-billion dollar fortune. But will it work in politics?
In 2015, Biden was in place of Bloomberg, who delayed with his decision to enter the race until the end of October. Then the vice president was forced to completely abandon participation in the primaries. In his opinion, not a single candidate could build the necessary infrastructure for the campaign in the remaining time. Perhaps Michael 2019 is in relation to Joe 2015 in the best position only in terms of finances. He does not have to collect sponsorship money. He may well pay for all of his election campaigns, putting up to $ 12 billion for them. And his descendants are not very impoverished.
Bloomberg has one more advantage. Despite his slurred party orientation, he is a very systemic person with strong ties in Washington. The establishment can bet on him. Still, Biden was called the hope of the Democrats-centrists on lack of fish. Old Man Joe is a member and unofficial head of the Kennedy clan, which the Clintons, leftists, and influential political sponsors dislike. Many of these sponsors would consider it good to go over to Michael. In addition, Biden's age begins to affect his behavior and work. He is increasingly talking, getting tired, his team has to limit the public events of the candidate, so as not to expose the boss to even more stress. The other two leaders of the democratic primaries, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, are socialists. Washington old-timers look at them with great skepticism.
So if Bloomberg enters the race, support is provided by the party’s apparatus and political sponsors. But will this help the candidate?
Still, everything will be decided by the party activist on the ground. In recent years, he has become very field-wise, and he is unlikely to like the idea of putting one billionaire against another.
Partaktiv also has many complaints against Michael. Two of them are related to his activities as mayor of New York.
Firstly, he continued to pursue a tough street crime policy initiated by Rudi Giuliani. In particular, he supported the practice of sudden stops, document checks, and street searches without explanation (the so-called Stop and Frisk Policy). Dark-skinned residents of the Big Apple, as well as members of other racial and ethnic minorities, were disproportionately often searched, which provoked the liberals even in 2007-2010, not to mention the current era of “merciless tolerance,” when Los Angeles state authorities San Francisco and Seattle have actually legalized petty street crime. The hometown of a potential candidate goes the same way.
Secondly, the left will never forget Michael Bloomberg this date - November 16, 2011. On the night and early morning of this day, the Occupy Wall Street movement was physically destroyed. It is still not known for certain at what level the decision was made to disperse the main permanent camp of demonstrators in Zukotti Park. But it was the mayor who led the sweep. At first, measures were taken to distract journalists (in particular, jamming of communications at all frequencies was carried out, electricity was turned off), then almost all police forces and heavy engineering equipment were pulled to the park. By the time the media came to their senses, the camp no longer existed. The details of the operation and the number of those arrested that night and early morning are still kept secret. There is no doubt that this topic will be discussed more than once during the primaries if Bloomberg takes part in it. This is not the story of Biden in faraway Ukraine, which the press and rivals allowed him to hush up (for now). An attempt to sweep Occupy overclocking under the carpet will cause an incredible scandal.
Summarizing all of the above, it is difficult to believe that the 77-year-old billionaire is really going to participate in democratic primaries. Perhaps he just wants to tickle his nerves for himself and his newfound party members. Maybe there was something else on his mind. There was even a conspiracy theological version, according to which Bloomberg goes to the primaries to lower Biden's chances and thereby help his long-time, good friend Donald Trump. But this assumption is about the same property as the 2016 hypothesis of Trump's nomination to ensure Clinton's victory.
However, in the event of successful entry into the race at the beginning of March 2020, Bloomberg can still play an important role in the election of democrats within the party. He is quite able to collect a sufficient number of mandates for delegates to the pre-election conference (it will be held in July 2020) so that not one of the candidates receives a winning majority - 50% plus one vote. And then everything will be decided at the conference itself, where the first violin will be played not by the voters who sent the delegates, but by the cunning party functionaries. And if “at the request of the comrades,” Bloomberg supports one or another of his rivals, this will become the final solution to the question. It’s not at all necessary that Michael asks for a fee. With his wealth and at his age, he can do this simply for posterity. For example, because of dislike for socialists.
Whether this is so or not, we will know very soon. Because Bloomberg has no time for swinging. Another week or two of “serious consideration of the issue” - and it can once again be debited.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.