Sling in Iraq and Lebanon: Iran "finds itself in an awkward position in its sphere of influence"

In a speech partially broadcast by state television, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday (October 30th) accused the United States, Israel and "some Western countries" of being behind the scenes. disturbances "in Lebanon and Iraq.

These two countries have for several weeks been the scene of spontaneous popular uprisings against their governments and their respective political classes, accused of being corrupt, all against the backdrop of social crisis and economic slump.

"I recommend to those in charge of Iraq and Lebanon to remedy the insecurity and turmoil created in their country by the United States, the Zionist regime [the State of Israel is not recognized by Tehran, Ed], some Western countries and the money of some reactionary countries, "said Ali Khamanei. He also warned that "the enemy is seeking to disrupt the legal framework" of the countries in the region.

I recommend those who care in #Iraq and #Lebanon remedy the insecurity and turmoil created in their countries by the US, the Zionist regime, some western countries, and the money of some reactionary countries.

These accusations and warnings come as the protest in Lebanon has brought down the government of Saad Hariri and in Iraq, the Prime Minister, Adel Abdel Mahdi, conspired by the demonstrators, is suspended.

Even though he acknowledged that the Iraqi and Lebanese populations have "just" claims to make, the Iranian Supreme Leader's exit tends to show that the Islamic Republic fears a destabilization that would be detrimental to its influence and interests in these two countries. States. Which are governed by a political system based on confessionalism, and where there are many allies well placed at the top of power.

"The Iranian government can only be concerned because it has an important political role in these countries.It is important that its influence is sustainable and solid after investing a lot, but Tehran is now challenged by the people and finds itself cant in its own sphere of influence ", confided to France 24 a connoisseur of the Islamic Republic, under the seal of anonymity.

And to add: "the predictable theory of a foreign manipulation and Zionist, supposed to discredit these movements of protest, is alarming even if it shows some feverishness".

Hezbollah challenged in Lebanon

In Lebanon, the wave of protest has spread to the Shiite strongholds in the south of the country, dominated by Hezbollah, the Shiite political-military movement sponsored financially by Tehran and previously untouchable. Worse, some protesters did not spare the party's general secretary, Hassan Nasrallah, while his supporters consider him the leader of the resistance against Israel.

As the only party with weapons and a larger arsenal than the Lebanese army, the pro-Iranian Shiite formation is described by several experts as the real decision-making center in Lebanon and an extension of Iranian power. "There are two states, the one that is in the window, and that of Hezbollah, an Iranian colony that structures political life and controls borders," said Antoine Basbous, director of the Observatory of Arab Countries, based in Paris.

Iran finds itself in trouble with the protests that are shaking Iraq and Lebanon. The Iranian presence and financial support are also the subject of much criticism from the Iranian people, already strangled by a precarious economic situation.

Unprecedented, during the first days of the uprising that began on October 17, protesters attacked the permanence of some Shiite deputies, including those of Mohammad Raad, president of the parliamentary group of Hezbollah. On several occasions, supporters of God's party, and the Amal movement, his Shia ally in Parliament and the government, attacked protesters, a sign of nervousness in their ranks.

For his part, Hassan Nasrallah made similar remarks to those made by Ali Khamenei, hinting last week that the protests in Lebanon were funded by embassies and foreign powers.

Statements that have earned him scathing and ironic responses to the constatives on social networks. Some netizens even shared a speech by Hassan Nasrallah in which he claimed in 2016 that his party's "budget", "wages to beverages" are paid for by Iran.

"Iran out outside, free Baghdad"

In Iraq, where the majority of the population is Shiite, Iran imposes its mark on the political scene. Notably by supporting several parties and armed groups, including the powerful Hachd al-Shaabi, a paramilitary group dominated by Shiite militias. The latter represents the second bloc in Parliament while being a member of the government coalition.

In protests against power, which have caused the death of 240 people since 1 October in Baghdad and the south of the country, resentment against Tehran is reflected in the slogans chanted by protesters: "Iran outside outside, Baghdad free" . "They have clearly indicated that they want, in addition to economic and social demands, to get rid of the Iranian presence in the country and a regime put in place by Tehran," said Oula Said al-Samrani, Iraqi journalist, guest of the debate of the Arab antenna of France 24.

This is not the first time that the Iranian grip, which spread to Iraq in the wake of the US invasion of 2003, is disputed. In September 2018, in Basra, southern Shiite, hundreds of demonstrators set fire to the Iranian consulate and attacked armed parties and groups, most of them close to Iran, in a wave of violence. protests against corruption and the decay of public services.

In addition, Tehran fears especially a contagion of disputes on its own soil, while the country's economy is in trouble because of US sanctions. According to the IMF, the Iranian economy is to shrink 9.5% this year after growth of 4.8% in 2018.

"There is a confluence between the anger expressed against political systems dominated by Iran's allies in Iraq and Lebanon and the contestation that exists within the Islamic Republic itself, where discontent is of the same nature, especially on socio-economic topics ", notes Bernard Hourcade, researcher emeritus at the CNRS and specialist in Iran, contacted by France 24.

"In Iran, Iraq or Lebanon, civil society needs to express itself, as we saw on the Iranian side in 2017, during demonstrations against economic difficulties and power," he says. Political Shiism is important and where Iran is influential, emerging from new political issues that do not relate to Iran's influence on missiles or nuclear. "