Will Israel finally find a government where President Reuven Rivlin will be forced to hold a third election in less than a year? After Benjamin Netanyahu's second failure to compose a government, the country seems once again plunged into a political stalemate.
The outgoing Israeli Prime Minister announced on Monday (October 21st) that he was giving up the idea of forming a new government because of his inability to win a majority in parliament after the parliamentary elections in late September. It is therefore his opponent Blue-white party, Benny Gantz, who will attempt to meet this challenge. He has 28 days to complete this mission. "But as it stands, its chances are extremely low," said Samy Cohen, director of research emeritus at the Center for Studies and International Research (Sciences Po-CERI), an expert on Israel, contacted by France 24.
No obvious partners for Gantz
Benny Gantz's party, Bleu-blanc, has certainly taken the lead in the legislative elections on 17 September, with 33 seats out of 120 in the Knesset, compared with 32 for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, but he has not partners to create a majority coalition.
"Even in alliance with the Arab parties, he would get only 55 deputies, against the 61 needed to take the majority of the Knesset.The missing 6 or 7 deputies, he could find them in the party of Avigdor Lieberman ( the secular nationalist Israel Beiteinou formation of the former minister Avigdor Lieberman obtained 8 seats in the legislative elections of September, Ed), but this one warned that it was excluded that sits with the Arab parties ", continues the researcher.
So, how to break the deadlock? Only solution to form a coalition led by Benny Gantz: to poach deputies within the Likud itself. A scenario that Samy Cohen considers feasible if the legal troubles of "Bibi", in power for more than a decade, are confirmed.
Since February 2019, Benjamin Netanyahu is indeed suspected of corruption, fraud and breach of trust in three cases. In the case of "4000", he is notably suspected of having favored a telecom operator in exchange for more favorable media coverage. Justice must say by the end of the year whether or not it chooses to indict the outgoing Prime Minister and Likud leader.
"Race between the judicial and political process"
"There is a race between the judicial and the political process, if during Benny Gantz's time to form a government, Benjamin Netanyahu is indicted, some Likud deputies may consider it too risky to remain loyal to a government. leader likely to fall under the law, "continues Samy Cohen.
But according to him, this scenario is not obvious, because Benjamin Netanyahu took care to lock his party and his right-wing parliamentary bloc, by signing the deputies "loyalty commitments" to prevent them from joining a coalition of Benny Gantz who would rely on the support of the Arab parties. Will elected officials consider that an indictment delivers them from this commitment?
The question deserves to be asked because, between the two formations, a political common ground exists. "Ideologically, the Blue White party and Likud are not fundamentally different from each other: they are relatively right, hard on relations with the Palestinians, they are both secular parties. prevents them from sitting together, "says the researcher.
To break the deadlock if Benny Gantz also fails to form a government, President Reuven Rivlin could ask a majority of deputies to nominate a candidate. But a new legislative election - which would be the third since April - would then be almost inevitable, in February or March 2020. And this, even if the Israeli head of state has repeatedly reminded that he would do his utmost to avoid calling new elections.