He emphasized that the forecasts “for the season ahead, for the month ahead, do not have the reliability that the forecasts have for short and medium terms”.
“It is predicted that November will be warm - near and above normal, the temperature background across the country,” RIA Novosti quoted Wilfanda as saying.
The weather forecaster explained that there is a concept - the a priori probability of forecasts, which "characterizes the degree of confidence of the forecaster that the forecast will come true."
“If we are talking about the forecast for tomorrow, then this a priori probability is higher than 95%, and with the forecast for the month it does not exceed 65-67%. It is stated that no one forecaster will say about or above the norm, and how much above the norm, ”Wilfand added.
Earlier, Lyudmila Parshina, the head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, talked with the Rossiyskaya Gazeta about the weather in Russia in November.