Forecasters made a long-term forecast for November. The head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, Lyudmila Parshina, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, said that temperature readings would exceed the norm in the Leningrad, Pskov, Novgorod, Vologda regions, in the Volga region, in the regions of the Central Federal District, in most of the southern territories.

The columns of thermometers will rise one degree or more above the norm in the Murmansk region, Karelia, the Arkhangelsk region and Komi. Elevated temperatures are also possible in the Urals, in the Khanty-Mansiysk District, on the Yamal Peninsula, as well as on the coast of Yakutia, Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, in the Magadan Region and in Kamchatka.

According to Parshina, in Moscow November will also be warmer than usual.

Earlier it was reported that the first autumn frosts were recorded in Moscow. On Wednesday night, October 16, at the base weather station at VDNKh, the air temperature was -0.3 ° С.

Forecast accuracy

Commenting on the colleague’s forecast, the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman Vilfand, in an interview with RT, explained that all long-term forecasts are quite general. According to him, in October it is impossible to speak with 100% accuracy about what November will be like.

“This is the case when the weather forecasters do not tell the details not because they do not reveal the secret. The fact is that in the long-term forecasts there are no details, detailing exists in short and medium term forecasts ... The object of the forecast is the background characteristics: the temperature is above normal. How much higher than the norm is not known. The success of the forecast is about two third, not 95%, as for tomorrow, ”said Wilfand.

According to him, such details as precipitation and their intensity, pressure, can be found only from the short-term forecast of meteorologists, which is usually given for a week. Longer forecasts can be useful for narrow specialists: housing and communal services workers, economists.

Earlier, the scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center, Roman Vilfand, told RIA Novosti that the probability of a forecast for November is not higher than 67%.

  • AGN "Moscow"

Warming trend

The meteorologist also noted that an excess of monthly average indicators should be expected by almost all residents of the European part of Russia. In the coming week, the excess will be 5-6 ° C.

“This is a very large value, this means that we will be in temperature approximately in the third decade of September, and not in the third decade of October. The weather lags for a month, ”Villefand emphasized.

Speaking about the general trend for warming, the weather forecaster also noted that last year the first half of autumn was also quite warm. According to him, the first three weeks of September were almost summer. In October, an excess of the temperature norm was also noted.

“This does not mean that it will always be so. The weather is very variable: in 2016 it was very cold October, at the end of October it snowed. There is a global trend that suggests that it is gradually getting warmer. This is a very evolutionary trend, and against this background, the amplitude of change is very large. It may be warm and cold, but if averaged, the warming trend exists, ”said Villefand.

However, in some regions, indicators may be below normal, concluded the supervisor of the Hydrometeorological Center.

So, cooler than usual this November may be in the south of central Russia - in the Krasnodar Territory and on the southern coast of Crimea. In Siberia, in general, indicators will be close to normal, but lower temperatures are possible in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Irkutsk Region and Buryatia.

In Western Siberia, after an unprecedented warmth, a cooling has already begun. The weather begins to be affected by a cyclone approaching from the south of the Urals. Rain and sleet are predicted. Weather forecasters warn that “precipitation can be so strong that temporary snow cover can form,” the site says.