As an icebreaker breaks river ice, allowing the spring ice drift to clear the riverbed, so the Turkish offensive in the north-east of Turkey broke the rigid system built by the Americans and their satellites. Kurds went to Assad camp. They swore to fight to the last, to turn every village into Stalingrad; appealed to the best feelings of Europeans, swearing that the Turks were ready for genocide and would cut them to the last; claimed that the Americans stabbed them in the back. But in the face of harsh reality, they went to Damascus and agreed with the legitimate government of Syria, which for several years had persuaded them to change their mind and return to the bosom of mother Syria, but still to no avail.
While the Kurds were hoping for American intercession, they wring themselves a high price, demanded de facto independence. But, when the Americans left, they quickly lowered the price. Against the Syrian cities, which were under their control since 2012, the flags of the Syrian Arab Republic rose again; Beteers and trucks drove in with Syrian soldiers, and people greeted them with handfuls of rice, as is customary in the East, instead of flowers. People remembered that they were primarily Syrians, and already in the second - Syrian Kurds.
President Trump continued the withdrawal of troops. Now, not only from the border itself, but further south this process continues. Trump is alone in this campaign. All American newspapers and television stations, many congressmen and senators want a continuation of the US military presence. Nothing that has already cost America $ 8 trillion, while hundreds of thousands of Americans have become homeless, and 50 million have no health insurance. Newspapers recall that Israel’s security requires an American presence in Syria. Congressmen swear that leaving is treason.
If it were not for the pressure of the Turks, it is unclear what Trump would have done. But Erdogan called him and asked: what, in fact, is the United States doing in Syria? After all, they said that they came only in order to defeat the IG *? Now the IG is defeated, why is there a delay? And Trump heeded his words and ordered the withdrawal of troops from the northeast.
And here he showed his usual half-heartedness - it was necessary to withdraw all the troops, and not just a part; from all of Syria, and not just from the northeast. But it’s an American tradition to chop a cat’s tail piece by piece. So they left Vietnam.
Now the Turks have achieved their goal - after the Syrians take control of the entire American occupation zone, the idea of Syrian Kurdistan will disappear like fog in the morning. Namely, this ghost scared the Turks, and quite justified. Syrian Kurdistan on the very border of Turkey was the key to endless terrorist attacks and a protracted guerrilla war in the Turkish outback. Both Israel and American amateurs made war on this scenario. But the plan was like a thorn to the Syrians, because Kurdish nationalists were evicted from the homes of the Arabs, the indigenous inhabitants of the Syrian north.
But all for the better. Kurds are legal citizens of Syria; if they also become loyal citizens loyal to a legitimate government, old troubles can be forgotten. President Assad is an unremarkable man.
Much depends on how President Erdogan reacts to this turn of events. He can tell his people that he did everything he wanted - he dispersed the nest of terrorists. Or he may succumb to the persuasion of Assad’s enemies and continue his operation, this time against the legitimate Syrian government. The argument against this unwanted turn was the new sanctions that the United States imposed on Turkish ministers. Trump requires the Turks to cease hostilities. The Europeans demand the same. After the completion of the entry of Syrian troops to the former Kurd bases, both Moscow and Damascus will be able to support these requirements.
In Syria, there was a serious turn. The goal of Assad and Moscow - the complete liberation and unification of Syria under the rule of a legitimate government, which previously seemed pure fantasy - is now visible on the horizon. It can be achieved if, several more times, luck is on the side of the Russians and Syrians. Idlib needs to be played back, all Americans must be gone, oil must be taken - this will allow rebuilding and rebuilding Syria after a long war without resorting to expensive loans abroad. In short, there are a lot of difficulties ahead. Problems can arise at every turn.
But an important milestone has been taken. The United States has taken a reasonable course to exit. US allies realized that relying on a distant power is dangerous. The Turks have achieved their goal. Damascus takes control of the city and village. All this gives grounds for cautious optimism.
PS I’ll add for the understanding of our readers, who often ask why Putin and Russia support President Assad. The answer is simple - it is legitimate. He is the legal elected president of the country. The overthrow of a legitimate ruler opens the gates of a civil war - and it is unclear whether it will be better in its final. Putin, a lawyer by training, is a legitimist. He is everywhere and always stands for legitimate authorities. Therefore, he saved Erdogan during the coup. Therefore, the Middle East relies on him and on Russia.
* “Islamic State” (IG) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.