In Moscow, the protest movement has ended. Anyway, for a while. All who could and had the desire to trample on the topic. Citizens plunged into the reality of autumn weekdays. Rallies, detentions, courts, and heated debates around street events are all in the past. And soon it will be necessary to plan New Year's events ...
But such calm did not come everywhere in the world. Mass protests and riots occur in various parts of the globe. Many of them last for months, and some are the result of conflicts that have lasted for years. It would seem suppressed by the French government, the movement of "yellow vests" reaffirmed itself. Fierce clashes continue in Hong Kong. Again raging Kiev. Bloody clashes erupted in Baghdad. Restless in the USA and Great Britain. There, until they burn cars and fight with the police, supporters and opponents of Trump, Brexit and Scottish independence can take to the streets at any time. And then, given the intensity of passions, it is hardly worth expecting peaceful processions and civilized disputes.
Very different cities and countries and formally different causes of conflict. In France, the respectable bourgeois realized that they apparently made a mistake in the last two elections, handing all power to the product of political technology to Emmanuel Macron with his hastily created party. The Eurozone is increasingly plunged into stagnation (if not recession). EU residents are crushed by taxes and administrative regulations; they are unhappy with the influx of migrants and rising fuel prices. The most annoying thing is that there is no one to ask. The unity of the Old World, among other things, means that the faceless and omnipotent European bureaucracy will continue to carry out its globalist agenda, shifting the severity of its negative consequences to the shoulders of ordinary citizens. They still live better than so many in the world, but are already scared enough by the prospect of impoverishment to rush into police chains and burn cars.
In Hong Kong, tens of thousands of people, leaving the work and comfort of their well-fed, measured existence, actually paralyzed one of the main financial and trade centers in the world. They risk not leaving stone in stone from this center. And all because they are afraid of dissolution in the greater mainland China. And this fear is so great that no concessions by the authorities will no longer suit them. The demands of dissent change all the time. Sometimes it seems that they themselves do not know what they want. Unless the status quo is forever ... Which, of course, is impossible. Beijing cannot stop digesting Hong Kong. But this process can make redundant too many brokers, bank clerks and foreign trade agents, which causes social tension. Dissatisfied people do not defend "democratic principles", but smash with frenzy the new Eurasia, which the Celestial Empire has made a serious bid for managing.
In Iraq, people are driven into the streets by poverty, unemployment, terrifying living conditions and corruption. In the 15 years that have passed since the overthrow of the regime of Saddam Hussein, the citizens of this country have not seen improvements in their lives. And in many aspects, their life has even worsened. The deliverance from the “Islamic state” *, to which for some time both occupational and local (seemingly democratically elected) authorities could blame for their failures, did not bring the desired changes. The internal conflict between the Shiite majority and the Sunni minority has not gone away. About a month before the current events in Baghdad, Basra plunged into chaos. The reason was everyday - the mass poisoning of poor-quality drinking water, however, attacks were followed by the headquarters of Shiite paramilitary groups and the consulate of Iran, which patronizes Shiites.
Of course, not the emissaries of Tehran poisoned the water in the city, but dissatisfaction with the increased influence of the Islamic republic is felt not only in Washington, but also in many settlements of Iraq with a predominantly Sunni population.
In the United States and the United Kingdom, forces are opposing each other, which over the years of political divisions have become virtually irreconcilable.
Voting for Brexit and the election of Trump exacerbated the contradictions that have been piling up for decades. Someone wants to stay in the old, global world order, and someone is so dissatisfied that he is ready to take extreme measures - not only to vote in the most radical way, but also to protect his choice on the street. The press and parliamentarians are no longer shy in expressions. In London and Washington, today they openly talk about the illegality of the actions of executive leaders.
For a long time there is no news from Venezuela. But there, of course, far from calm. It is possible that soon the previously quiet, prosperous Canada will turn into a bust, where, as general elections approach, the domestic political conflict escalates. Compromising and even intimidating politicians are used - just like that of the southern neighbor. The protracted government crisis in Israel does not bode well.
The Jewish state was frozen at a crossroads. The results of several consecutive votes show that society is split on many issues of both domestic and foreign policy. At any moment, Greece may flare up again, which for ten years now continues to slide into poverty (which the French are only thinking about with fear) ...
Events take place simultaneously, and for all the difference in the reasons that gave rise to them, with all the differences in the motivations of the protesters, it’s difficult to get rid of the feeling that all the rallies and almost always the riots that follow them seem to develop in a single scenario. Those who disagree too quickly move from declaring their demands (sometimes very vague) to violence and unrest.
Another common feature of all the protests is their lack of a single political or organizational center. There are no common requirements for all. “Yellow vests” even stated that they did not want to have not only any formal organization, but also a political program. In Hong Kong, as we have already said, the demands of those who disagree are so vague that it is impossible to fulfill them with all desire. And everywhere - from Washington to Baghdad - social networks and instant messengers play a huge role in the rapid mobilization of street masses. The Iraqi authorities tried to block them as soon as the riots began, but, apparently, nothing came of them. Too many ways to bypass locks. And every day more and more of them are invented.
The same technologies are used all over the world.
Today it is already difficult to understand where they are used meaningfully by internal or external backstage players, and where they are taken into service by unknown forces as “ready-made solutions” developed for other countries and circumstances.
The events of the so-called Arab spring were often called Twitter revolutions because of how this social network was used to promote social protest. Then many (and in many respects fairly) pointed to the United States as the organizer of network riots. But already in 2014 (two years before the election of Trump) the turn of the United States came. Twitter in a matter of hours made Ferguson, Missouri, the source of major political news and an arena of natural hostilities that lasted several weeks. In 2017, in Charlottesville, Virginia, both sides of the confrontation were mobilized through social networks. Moreover, they turned out to be well informed about each other's plans and well prepared for tough clashes.
You can, of course, in all protests and riots look for the hand of invisible puppeteers. Sometimes such puppeteers do exist. The problem is that what is happening in none of these countries (and not only in them) cannot be explained only by someone’s evil will. First of all, because there can be several players.
The problem with the network technology for organizing meetings and riots is that, like almost any modern weapon, it can be in anyone’s hands and used with minimal financial investment and mobilization efforts. In addition, the management of the running process can be repeatedly and not twice intercepted by other interested parties, which sometimes can not even be reliably determined. These are the dangerous technologies today freely walk around the world. And no one knows how to prevent the most sad consequences of their use.
But this is only one side of the problem. You can’t boil it all down to technology. At least it is counterproductive to blame the State Department (or someone else) for everything, and to write down those who disagree with the Chokh as servants of hostile forces.
The socio-political changes taking place on the planet today are called by many experts tectonic. And it is true. Such “mainland slabs" of the world order came into motion that ten years ago seemed unshakable. This could not but cause tension and kinks around the globe.
So national states, in addition to participating in post-global competition with each other, will have to deal with the aftermath of the “earthquakes”. And the more effective such liquidation is, the more successful the state will be.
Hong Kong clerks, Iraqi Sunnis and French bourgeois can be understood. They really "hurt and hurt." But governments have to call them to order, and quite harshly. They are not up to sentiment now. And in the societies involved in the confrontation, in the near future there will be no agreement as to on which side “moral right” is - a demonstrator with a cobblestone or a law enforcement officer with a club. Because societies, as always happens at crucial moments in history, are split.
Not all countries will regain unity. And those who gain will do this, of course, not under the pressure of the "righteous anger" of the crowd and not under the streams of water cannons. And thanks to the advancing socio-economic development and success in the international industrial and technological competition. Those that do not succeed will remain in a state of chaos for a long time. Like many regions of today's Africa.
* “Islamic State” (IG) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.