The detonator from the "formula Sh"

After signing the so-called Steinmeier formula, the current Kiev regime stormed almost nine-point - only the lazy did not notice it. We will not now examine the points of this diplomatic pact from the point of view of who is merging whom, because personally I am all about the sabotage of Donbass by Russia and I refer only to information sabotage and cowardice.

It is much more interesting to observe how “Formula Sh” (I call it so abbreviated) became a detonator for political contradictions, which were laid in the very foundation of the new Ukrainian government - of course, I mean the forces that led the country after the 2014 coup.

Literally the day before, information appeared that separate units of the National Guard were being withdrawn from the OOS zone (operations of the combined forces) to ensure and maintain law and order in the capital and other regions of Nezalezhnaya, where nationalists who were dissatisfied with the signing of "Formula Sh" seriously intend to organize unrest, and possibly and more radical events. More than once after February 2014, when Euromaidan won a bloody victory in many respects, there were calls for Euromaidan 2.0, but protest sentiments were blown off one way or another. However, this time, it seems, there really are all the prerequisites for the fact that “Formula Sh” will become a turning point in the history of relations between the ruling elite of Ukraine and the radical nationalists.

Note that, purely ideologically, there is practically no difference between those who, conditionally speaking, have authorized the signing of "Formula Sh", and those who are against this. But the difference, as they say, is qualitatively very striking. While Zelensky and his team can be classified as a “cabinet nationalist,” the average protester is a “field nationalist.” By “field” I mean the presence of some practical experience in the struggle for nationalist ideals, namely, direct participation in hostilities, business trips to the DUS zone and involvement in other radical processes.

In this sense, the degree of confrontation provoked by the signing of "Formula Sh" is much higher than during the protests and the conflict five years ago. Then let the Yanukovych regime go and prepared, but not yet fired, in fact, nationalists. Now Zelensky is threatened by radicals with real combat experience, I would even say - by intense combat experience, which means that if you escalate with them in the language of hoses and rubber truncheons you will not speak. More serious arguments will be required.

It is precisely in order to have such arguments that the authorities remove certain units of the National Guard from the OOS zone. There serve people who, too, one way or another have experience of war.

It would seem that the measure is logical and justified. If not for one but. The coup d'etat of 2014 brought to power people who, in fact, blurred the boundaries between radical militants and law enforcement officers. The permanent Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, has united both of them under his wing.

What I mean? Take, for example, the notorious Azov battalion, manned specifically by nationalists who went to the Donbass front voluntarily, and not by order. Officially, "Azov" is a linear special forces unit in the military unit No. 3057 of the Eastern Operational and Territorial Association of the National Guard. That is, in fact, some of the most radical nationalists of Ukraine are part of the same structure, which, in theory, should cool their radical fervor.

On the one hand, you might think that it is a rather wise and tricky move to take nationalists under your wing. Let them be better under control or, as they say, under the hood of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, than to turn into an independent and organized structure. On the other hand, the creation of such a conditional Frankenstein is fraught with further irreversible consequences. After all, what is the National Guard - these are the former internal troops, which also included the same “Golden Eagle” that opposed the nationalists at that very “Euromaidan-2014”. That is - I emphasize - Avakov united under one roof those who until recently stood against each other. And if you think that the fighters of the internal troops, even if they were renamed the National Guard, have forgotten how the current colleagues threw them Molotov cocktails, you are mistaken.

This kind of crossing is a time bomb, for the explosion of which only the detonator is missing. “Formula Sh” can easily become such a detonator. Indeed, now Avakov, the commander of the National Guard, including, is in a situation where the two chairs (nationalists and law enforcement officers), on which he sat complacently in 2014, begin to slowly but surely disperse in different directions. That is, now, as an official, he, on the one hand, needs to ensure public order (that's why the units of the National Guard are responding from the front), and on the other, not to lose the trust of those whom he once tried to tame. Indeed, among the protesters against the "Formula Sh" there are a lot of people from Azov.

The current government, therefore, turned out to be a hostage to the order of things that it itself laid as a result of a coup in 2014. And it may very well be that even curators from Washington cannot unravel this tangle of contradictions. A new internal front, for example, the Kiev one, can be added to the Donbass front, and then the comedian president will really have no time for jokes.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.