Equation without solution

If German business led politics, sanctions against Russia would long ago become history.

Steinmeier's formula turns into an equation without a solution. If Ukraine proudly shows a leaflet with the signature under the formula, then in Germany they prefer to keep silent about this. Whether the Chancellor will go to the meeting of the Four in Paris and what gives a solution to the formula are the questions that need to be answered.

A little about Steinmeier himself.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President of Germany, is stubbornly silent and does not utter a word about his formula and generally about Ukraine. I understand why. It fights memories of those times when he drowned for Russia, with memories of the failure for him in February 2014. But there was a time when he sincerely considered himself a supporter of good-neighborly politics with Russia and Ukraine.

The first time I heard about “informal Steinmeier” was in 1998 from his chief, then Minister of President of Lower Saxony Gerhard Schroeder. Steinmeier worked as the chief of the Schroeder administration, and it was he who instilled the chief's love for Russia in many ways. I personally met him many years ago, when he was already the Minister of Foreign Affairs, in the Einstein cafe on Unter den Linden near the Bundestag.

I had a conversation with a German colleague, we loudly mentioned Russia. At a nearby table sat Frank-Walter Steinmeier with his press secretary. At some point, Steinmeier waved his hand, attracting our attention, and said loudly: "We are very nice to Russians and to Russia." The word "Russia" he pronounced in Russian. This was not coquetry; he considered himself a Russophile.

However, as he progressed through the ranks, rhetoric began to change. As president, he is deprived of the opportunity to say something personal, which can be regarded as a political statement. The federal president of Germany is a wedding general who signs important documents, and then formally. That is why do not wait for Steinmeier to react to his own formula - he will remain silent.

It’s more important to understand what position the Chancellor of Germany will take. All news agencies wrote that Merkel does not know the date, but will go to Paris. As of 02.09, there was not a word on the website of the Federal Office for Information about Merkel’s words or about her possible trip. But the first German TV channel published an article saying that such a meeting is possible, accompanied by an amazing phrase: “President Macron, President Zelensky, Russian President Putin and the Chancellor will go to the meeting.”

Out of the ordinary commentary in which the Chancellor is not named by name!

One wonders - perhaps they know the most on German TV? The Chancellor, they say, will go, but with a surname we will wait.

Given Angela Merkel’s clearly unhealthy condition and the coup attempt in her home party, it can be assumed that Tagesschau wrote an article, implying that the chancellor could change at any time.

Therefore, in the near future Ukraine will not be in the center of foreign policy interests of Germany, no. And even if the nameplate changes on the chancellor’s chair, they will not forget Zelensky’s insult during a conversation with Trump that Germany does little for Ukraine.

But politics is one thing, and business is another.

This political elite can offer slogans instead of fresh buns for breakfast, business - no! This is understandable by the reaction of the Eastern Committee of German Economy to the signing by Ukraine of the Steinmeier formula. The chairman of the committee, Oliver Hermes, without regard to political correctness, said that the Minsk process should be protected from possible new US sanctions against Russia. The main "eastern businessman" of Germany knows very well how much the game of sanctions costs to German enterprises. From 2014 to 2018, total trade losses, including losses from retaliatory measures imposed by Russia, amounted to $ 300 billion.

Do not forget that losses are measured not only in monetary terms. Losing profits, the business begins to reduce its production, which inevitably leads to job cuts. Over the years of the sanctions, export industries working with Russia, according to some estimates, have lost about 100 thousand jobs. The figure is not very big, but very significant. Leading German parties, primarily the CDU, CSU and the Social Democrats, are already rapidly losing their voters, casting their votes to the Alternative for Germany and the Green parties.

Recent elections to the local landtags of some lands have shown that even a hundred votes can be a decisive factor for victory. For Chancellor Angela Merkel, this factor has long been decisive in making important foreign policy decisions. That is why the Chancellor is firmly holding on to Nord Stream 2 and will refuse sanctions against Russia as soon as possible. Steinmeier’s formula is an excellent occasion to raise this issue again, which is what German business does.

“The EU should consider lifting sanctions in order to provide the necessary incentive for the development of the peace process,” said Oliver Hermes, head of the Eastern Committee of the German Economy, the day before. The committee, although not a government or parliamentary body, plays a significant advisory role in making important economic and political decisions in Germany. In this sense, the formula can play, and this will be perhaps the most important effect of its solution.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.