Afghan confused presidential election October 1, 16:03

An American military operation lasting 18 years in Afghanistan. It is said to be the longest war in American history. A presidential election was held once every five years in Afghanistan on September 28th. In Japan, anti-government armed forces such as the Taliban have been repeatedly terrorized and attacked, and the deterioration of security has not been stopped. Moreover, the peace talks between the US government and the Taliban have stalled. In fact, Afghanistan, the Japanese government has provided a large amount of support in excess of about 710.0 billion yen in Japanese yen. Can a new leader in Afghanistan deepen chaos lead to stability?
(Islamabad branch manager Michitaka Yamaka, Washington branch manager Hideki Yui, Washington branch reporter Keisuke Ota)

Strictly alert presidential election

“Although I am preparing for the presidential election, I rarely see the candidates.”

This is the voice of voters in the capital Kabul. In Afghanistan, even the street election campaigns are not going to stop.

This is the fourth presidential election after the collapse of the Taliban administration. Originally scheduled for April, it was postponed to July and then to September due to delays in preparation and lack of funds.

There were more than 10 candidates, including the incumbent President Gani aiming for re-election, and the administration's number two Secretary General Abdullah. Each candidate held an election campaign with the greatest issue of "restoration of security" amidst a series of terrorism by the Taliban and the radical organization IS = Islamic State.

However, on the 17th of last month, a bomb terrorist attacked by the Taliban aimed at an election rally in the north of the capital Kabul. Since then, terrorist attacks have been repeated in various places, and the obstruction of the elections by the Taliban seemed to persist. Some candidates were forced to move using a helicopter, resulting in a life-threatening movement.

The Afghan government has placed more than 70,000 security forces and strictly guarded election-related facilities such as polling stations. However, more than 10% of the 29,000 polling stations were closed for reasons such as the lack of security.

On the day of voting, Taliban repeatedly exploded and attacked at the polling place and its surroundings as predicted, and 9 people were killed and more than 100 people were injured.

The Election Management Committee plans to publish provisional results around the 19th of this month, but this time it will not be settled, and the view that it will be entangled in the final vote by President Gani and Secretary Abdullah is growing.

The last five years were also voted for by these two people, and it took more than 5 months to confirm the result due to allegations of fraud, so many voters are worried about the uncertainty of the future.

The worst number of victims

Afghanistan is getting more confused. One of the reasons for this was the terrorist attacks that hit the United States 18 years ago.

Osama bin Laden suspected by the international terrorist organization Al Qaeda was the mastermind of the incident. The Taliban administration collapsed as the US decided to take military action, assuming that the Taliban administration was confined to the suspect.

After the collapse of the administration, some Taliban forces reinforced their position around southern Kandahar, where they were based, and hired in the border area with neighboring Pakistan, increasing their fighting capabilities. The Taliban rebounded in 2014 after the withdrawal of most of the international forces stationed in Afghanistan.

It is said that less than 60% of the region is now under the influence and influence of the Afghan government. The victims of terrorism and raids continue to grow, and according to the United Nations, the number of civilians killed last year was more than 3,800, the worst since the survey began.

In fact, Japan has also provided a lot of support

Since 2001, when the United States began its military operations, the Japanese government has continued to support reconstruction with the objective of "making Afghanistan independent and not becoming a hotbed of terrorism again." To date, US $ 6.6 billion will be contributed (approximately 710 billion yen in Japanese yen), and it will be the second largest donor country after the United States.

Of these, in order to improve security capabilities, we contribute nearly $ 1.6 billion (approximately 170 billion yen) to the salary of local police officers, as well as support for drug countermeasures and landmine removal.

"Dead" peace negotiations before agreement

On the other hand, since 2001, the US has spent approximately 7500 billion dollars (over 81 trillion yen in Japanese yen) on military operations. Apart from this, more than 120 billion dollars (about 13 trillion yen) are invested for reconstruction.

The Trump administration has promised to withdraw from Afghanistan, saying that such a huge burden is wasted. Decided to start peace talks with the Taliban, we have been in full swing since last October.

On the American side, Afghanistan's special representative Harilzad, Taliban introduced number two Valadal, and secret negotiations were held nine times in Middle East Qatar and others.

The following four items were the focus.

1 Withdrawal of US forces stationed

2. Disruption of the relationship between the Taliban and international terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda because it will not be a hotbed of terrorism again

3 Direct dialogue between the Afghan government and the Taliban

4 Realization of a comprehensive ceasefire

Regarding the two items, the withdrawal of the US military and the severance of relations with international terrorist organizations, we decided to draft a draft in March.

However, the discussion follows the parallel between the Taliban side who demands a prompt withdrawal within a few months and the American side who is cautious about the specific withdrawal timing of the US military.

Finally, on September 2nd, US Special Representative Harilzad announced that he had agreed in principle with the Taliban on the draft. The draft included that approximately 14,000 American troops stationed in Afghanistan would withdraw within 135 days after the peace agreement entered into force, and with the consent of President Trump, the final peace agreement was proposed. It was supposed to be. However….

“The peace negotiations died. They thought they needed to be killed to make the negotiations more favorable, but they did n’t work for me.”

President Trump, who worked hard on the Taliban bombings that did not stop even after the announcement of the principle agreement, suddenly announced the cancellation of negotiations just three days after the announcement.

Behind the scenes of the peace negotiations revealed

Peace negotiations that were just before the agreement. What was happening behind the scenes? This time we tried to hit the Taliban executives directly to find out what happened.

Suhail Shaheen responded to a single interview in Qatar. He has consistently been involved in negotiations with the United States and has served as a Taliban spokesman.

Surprisingly, I was an executive of an anti-government armed group, and I thought it was a scary person.

“The peace plan agreed in principle was only signed.”

“We agreed to hold a signing ceremony in Doha, Qatar within one week of the principle agreement. There are 23 foreign ministers to be invited, including China, Russia and Japan.”

Shaheen testified about the details that were consistent with the American side. However, the sudden cancellation of negotiations shows resentment.

Shaheen: “Negotiations are backed down because the US side withdrew what they have agreed to. If you really want to solve the problem, you have to come here and start again. The US side does not want a peaceful solution. Then you have no choice but to continue the battle. ''

Depending on how the American side came out, I showed a stance that I could not give up the use of more force, and I strongly resisted it.

The closest peace in the past

“The discussion between the US and the Taliban has been shelved for the time being, but for the past year, there has been substantial negotiations between the US and the Taliban, and now we are heading for peace in the past 18 years. It is in the closest situation. ''

What I highly appreciate is the special representative of Tadatsu Yamamoto, Secretary General of the United Nations Afghan Support Group. Mr. Yamamoto, a former diplomat, looked back on peace talks for nearly a year in an interview with NHK.

Mr. Yamamoto showed that if the peace negotiations were finally agreed, the withdrawal of American troops was being implemented in stages so as not to affect security.

As a next step, he showed that the Afghan government and Taliban would have started a full-scale peace talks to discuss ceasefires.

Mr. Yamamoto concludes, “Because the presidential election is scheduled, we will conduct the election in a reliable manner. Based on this, it is our task to consider the next step.” First, he pointed out that steady implementation of the presidential election is important.

The goal set by the international community to “not make Afghanistan a hotbed of terrorism” is now under great test. I would like to continue to see how Afghanistan will continue in the future, with an awareness of such issues as to how Japan should be involved.

Islamabad branch head

Washington Branch Director Hideki Yui

Washington branch reporter Keisuke Ota