Who would have thought, who would have imagined four years ago, that in 2019, three powerful rulers of the East - the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran - would meet in Ankara, agree on a constitutional settlement in Syria and require the United States to withdraw troops, and from Israel - stop the bombing. That Assad sits firmly in Damascus, and his opponents scattered in refugee camps and European shelters. That the scales are slowly but inevitably leaning toward the East.
A wave of deceptive “Arab spring” broke on the cliffs of Astana, poets will write.
And if we move on to prose, then the results will be more than comforting. Russia is the main winner in the Middle East, Reuters, Al Jazeera, and AFP, and Israeli observers unanimously say. The meeting in Ankara is not yet a feast of the winners, but an important milestone in the fate of the region. It is especially pleasant that the leaders of the militants, who fought against Damascus for eight years, also recognize this and acknowledge that we have no other way than the one drawn by the triumvirate of Astana. Not everyone will like the results of the settlement, but everyone will be able to come to terms with them and start living a normal life. It is precisely this decision that Russia has sought all these years.
The Russian president and his colleagues from the East have well learned the lesson of the Iliad: we need to achieve a compromise acceptable to the parties, and not an unconditional victory. Such a compromise in itself will be the best victory. After all, the Greeks and Trojans suffered precisely because they refused acceptable compromises when they were possible, hoping for a complete victory. The development of events in Syria largely justifies the diplomatic and political strategy of Russia.
Erdogan resigned to the fact that Syria will be united. All three - the Russian, Iranian and Turkish presidents - called on Trump to complete his plan for the withdrawal of American troops. The Iranian president poisoned the Trump’s inability to complete his plans. Erdogan gave the Americans two weeks to execute the maneuver - otherwise, he said, Turkish troops themselves will solve the problem of Kurdish militants.
Three presidents also agreed on a constitutional committee. He must develop the Constitution of Syria (Russia has already proposed a draft) and hold elections, thus ending the Syrian war and returning law and order to the country.
This committee has been discussed for years, but the opposition thwarted all attempts to reach an agreement. Only now, when the militants had only a few kilometers of Syrian land, the ice broke - and went violently, as if in ice.
The disagreements between the three presidents have not been canceled, but the fact that they were able to act as a united front, without mutual accusations and reproaches, is already a great achievement. Recall that recently the G-7 leaders failed to do this at a meeting in Biarritz.
Ahead is a solution to the Idlib problem, where militants from all over Syria were moved. The Turkish president fears that millions of Idlib residents will flood into Turkey, where they do not want to see them at all. President Putin has promised to finish off the nests of terrorists in Idlib if they aren’t killed. Judging by these remarks, Erdogan and Putin were able to understand each other during their long tête-à-tête conversation.
The condemnation of the Israeli bombing of Syria by all three presidents was especially convincing on the eve of the Israeli parliamentary elections.
Against the background of the meeting of the three presidents, there was an impressive blow to the Saudi oil fields, which halved the Saudi production, raised oil prices and caused considerable concern in the world. Although this topic was not discussed at the meeting, at a subsequent press conference, President Erdogan recalled that before this strike, Saudi aviation bombed the defenseless beggar of Yemen for several years, and the Iranian president said that the people of Yemen have the right to self-defense.
“When calm comes in Yemen, then oil can be easily extracted in the region,” he said. Erdogan added that if you remember who was the first to drop bombs on Yemen, then you can immediately find the answer to the question about the cause of what happened in Saudi Arabia. Putin subtly tapped the Saudis by offering them to buy the Russian air defense system, as Turkey and Iran had already bought. In other words, to rebuild from the American camp to the east. After all, buying air defense is not the same as buying tomatoes.
The pursuit of peace was an important feature of this summit. If the US is constantly fomenting war in the Middle East, the three presidents are trying to bring peace to the region. The Iranian president called for reconciliation between Turkey and Syria on the basis of historical pre-war agreements. Peace between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is not only possible, but necessary - not only for poor Yemen, but also for super-rich Arabia. However, the Russian president did not offer himself as a mediator. But the parties have not asked him yet.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.