Trump saved on a zigzag. Until now, his technique of conducting international relations has been characterized by stupid zigzags. At first he threatened North Korea, then he met with Kim and sang their wonderful friendship, and at the next stage he refused to do anything - he did not weaken the sanctions and did not stop the maneuvers. In response, Kim began to launch rockets again, and everything returned to normal. The zigzag with China was also useless. The promises made to the Chinese were disavowed at the next round.
With Afghanistan, even a zigzag did not work. Last Saturday, Trump said on Twitter that he is canceling the meeting with the Taliban *, which, according to him, was scheduled at Camp David, at the official presidential cottage: "Why meet with them if they continue the attacks and right there now they killed an American soldier, and another 11 people in Kabul? ”American observers seriously doubt that this meeting was planned at all. Representatives of the Taliban, of course, are reckless and risky people, but not so risky as to fly to America, where instead of Camp David you can easily get to Guantanamo. And in Camp David itself there were no signs of an upcoming meeting, according to the American site Moon of Alabama, familiar with the situation.
That is, instead of meeting, and then disappointing, Trump decided to immediately go on to disappointment. But there was still a zigzag. Trump went to the polls in 2016 with a promise to end the longest war in American history and return the soldiers home. He really began negotiations with the Taliban on the withdrawal of troops. Negotiations conducted by experienced diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad from the American side were successfully promoted. But a few days ago, he suddenly announced that he would withdraw only half of the troops, and the remaining 9 thousand soldiers would remain in Afghanistan forever. The Taliban did not like it. They want all Americans to leave, all to one. Trump seemed to agree, but now, when his war-loving assistants pressed him, he made a new zigzag.
Negotiations continue in Qatar, but there is no sense in them until Trump manages to make a decision himself, not listening to the sweet couple Pompeo - Bolton. These two have already frustrated negotiations with the DPRK, ruined relations with Iran, and they do not allow agreement with Russia.
The Taliban do not seek negotiations at all. If you leave, there’s nothing more to talk about, they said. And if you don’t leave, there’s nothing more to talk about. This approach, reminiscent of the tactics of ancient Sparta, is apparently the most productive in relations with the United States. You need to know exactly what you want, and do it, but with the United States - if you manage to come to an agreement - thank God, but if you don’t succeed - you need to continue. This is the position of the Taliban, and even earlier - of Vietnam.
The Taliban are now fighting effectively to liberate two more provinces from the forces of the Kabul regime. Kabul soldiers are fleeing - mainly through Iran to Europe, where the number of Afghan refugees has already exceeded the Syrian contingent.
There is no money in the Kabul treasury. Although huge money for drugs passes through the US base Bagram, the government gets only a trifle, and the main income flows into the bins of the American intelligence services. If the Americans leave, the Kabul government will fall, observers say.
Russia does not sit with popcorn on the couch. Russia is ready to become a witness, a participant, and a guarantor of the US Taliban agreement, because it is in Russia's interests to achieve both the withdrawal of American troops from its Central Asian underbelly and the non-conversion of Afghanistan into a base of international terrorism.
Pro-American experts are trying to convince Russians that it would be better for Russia if the Americans got stuck in Afghanistan forever. But past experience points to the opposite. Americans in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Libya, Kosovo and other places are preparing terrorist attacks against neighboring countries. While the Americans are there, the attack of the Islamists on the republics of Central Asia, and from there to the Volga and the North Caucasus is only a matter of time. Nowhere and never did the Americans fight terror - they only channeled it against their enemies. Yes, and Afghan terrorism was created by the Americans at the time, as Zbigniew Brzezinski admitted.
Such recommendations of the “experts” should be heard in order to do the opposite. Russia stands for the withdrawal of American troops in a peaceful manner and preferably by agreement, but if the Americans have to evacuate from the roof of the American embassy in Kabul, Moscow will not cry, although it will always help humanitarian evacuation.
Moscow will not disappoint the liquidation of the most powerful drug production in the history of mankind, if only because part of these drugs comes to Russia, China and Iran. The Taliban is known for its tough drug stance and can cure this ulcer. And finally, Russia's ties with the people of Afghanistan are long and strong. Afghans warmly remember the Russians, especially after the experience of the American occupation.
Therefore, Russia is not afraid, but hopes that President Trump will be able to make a strong-willed decision and begin the long-awaited withdrawal of troops.
* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.