More than 20 politicians compete for the right to represent the US Democratic Party in the 2020 presidential election. Four to five have real chances to win the primaries, but a record number of applicants decided to take the opportunity to increase their popularity nationwide.
But republicans may not have internal party selection as such in this electoral cycle. Formally, in each state, delegates will be elected to a national conference, but so far no serious struggle, but even elementary intrigue is not expected. The local party asset, which takes part in the primaries, is unlikely to support anyone other than the current head of state.
This does not mean that several applicants from the ruling party in the United States do not exist. They simply lose or withdraw their candidatures in the very early stages of the primary election. So, in 2012, when Barack Obama was in his second term, the Democratic National Committee, in addition to the owner of the White House, registered seven more candidates, but they were included in the voting lists rather for pro forma. The same thing happened in 2004 with the Republicans. There were ten candidates in all, but no one competed with George W. Bush.
Leading US parties, as a rule, strive to “not change horses at the crossing,” therefore neither political sponsors nor local party bodies are seriously considering alternatives to the current president. But this does not always happen. The most recent example is the primaries of the 1980 Democratic Party. Jimmy Carter ran for a second term. However, his policy did not suit all democrats. The left-liberal wing of the party put forward Senator Ted Kennedy, who managed to win primary elections in 12 states out of 50. Perhaps his result would have been better if American diplomats had not been taken hostage in Iran.
In the Republican Party, until the end of 2018, there was a serious frontal to Donald Trump. She was collectively called Never Trump. The 45th president was a non-systemic Republican, and many representatives of the party establishment were even ready to lose the presidential election in 2016, if only Donald did not occupy the highest state post. Before the midterm congressional elections in 2018, a fairly large number of influential Republicans decided not to run for the next term due to disagreement with Trump's policies. Even House Speaker Paul Ryan has resigned.
The 2018 election changed the party. Both representatives of its establishment and members of the right-wing conservative faction (mainly represented by the Tea Party) rallied around the president. The anti-Trump Republican opposition, in fact, ceased to exist. Of course, a bright conservative politician who opposes the president has appeared, the old party elite will not fail to take the chance to regain its former influence. But the fact of the matter is that there is no such bright politician.
For quite some time, Ohio Governor John Caseyk talked about the possibility of joining the fight. He participated in the primary elections of 2016, but did not show impressive results.
Senator Ted Cruise, who was considered the idol of the religious right, was much less behind, but today he supports the head of state in almost everything. The libertarian opposition could prove itself, but its potential leader, Senator Rand Paul, although he does not agree with Trump in everything, is in close friendly and professional relations with him. It was his president who appointed him special envoy on the Iranian issue.
Therefore, Trump's competitors within his own party, to put it mildly, are rather weak. The former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld was the first to nominate himself. He registered with the Republican National Committee and opened an account for donations, but could not even raise $ 1 million, which now almost put an end to his campaign.
Last Sunday, former Congressman Joe Walsh announced his desire to participate in the internal party selection. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 2010 from the state of Illinois in the wake of the rise of the Tea Party, but already in 2012 he lost the re-election. Now he is a popular radio host and blogger. He had just begun his campaign - he wrote a column in The New York Times (not the most popular publication among Republicans), gave interviews to several TV channels and shot his first YouTube video clip.
Walsh until recently was a big supporter of Donald Trump. In any case, everything that he wrote and said in his broadcasts in 2016-2017 was aimed at supporting first the Republican candidate, and then the president. But now he has changed his mind. He believes that Trump behaves “like a child” and “is not suitable” for his position. In his column for The New York Times, he wrote: “Mr. Trump incites racial hatred and encourages intolerance and xenophobia, trying to expand his support base and improve his electoral prospects. By doing so, he inspires imitators. ”
This argument is very similar to the one used by the representatives of the Never Trump movement in 2016-2017. Their failure, it would seem, should have taught all the enemies of the 45th president of the United States, but, apparently, no serious arguments against the candidacy of Donald (at least for the Republicans) were found. Therefore, over and over again, the same words sound that convince voters a little.
As a member of the Tea Party, Walsh could try to attack Trump on the right, pointing to the growing budget deficit and public debt, as well as the president’s violation of the principles of free trade, which four to five years ago were very important for the “dummies”. But the successes of the American economy have reconciled the free-trade adherents with the protectionist Donald, so most of the Republicans who voted actively for tea advocates today are the nuclear Trump electorate.
Calls to refuse support to the president for moral reasons are obviously doomed to become the voice of one crying in the desert. Trump voters know perfectly well that he is imperfect.
But they did not baptize children with him. It is quite enough for conservative Americans that he is fighting for their interests. In 2016, the most devout Puritans in the United States forgave Donald and his three marriages, his past, and frivolous remarks about women. They needed a man who could stand up against the liberal mainstream and lead more conservative judges to the Supreme Court. The middle class needs low taxes, jobs and stability in the economy. And the fact that the owner of the White House, providing all this, cannot be set as an example to children as an example, is their last concern. Trump xenophobe? Well, all Americans outside liberal metropolitan areas are a bit xenophobic. Well, the racial and other enmity was successfully planted by the liberals, repeating about the "innate" fault of a white man in front of minorities.
However, Joe Walsh himself is not a "nice guy" who could be opposed to the "impossible Donald." In his Twitter, he often used the word "Negro" which was politically incorrect in the USA, claiming that it was no worse than, for example, "redneck" (literally - "red neck", as white workers from the American hinterland are sometimes called in America).
Walsh accuses Trump of inciting violence, but at one time he repeatedly made very controversial statements. So, in October 2016, he wrote in his microblog: “If Trump does not become president on November 9, I grab my musket. Who is with me? ”
Today, Walsh accuses Trump of calling liberal media "enemies of the people." In the already mentioned column in The New York Times, he writes that the media are not enemies at all, and anyone who describes them like that attacks American constitutional freedoms. Meanwhile, in 2016, turning to the media community, he wrote on his Twitter: “You are enemies!”
An ex-congressman from Illinois claims that "today in the White House is his most corrupt master." But Walsh himself in 2011 immediately fell under several investigations related to corruption. The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington Public Organization then called Joe “one of the most corrupt congressmen.”
Donald Trump is still remembered for his participation in the promotion of the topic of “non-American origin” by Barack Obama - allegedly he was born not in Hawaii, but in Kenya, therefore he did not have the right to be elected to the highest state post. Walsh has a "sin" before political correctness is much more serious - for a long time he claimed that Obama is a secret Muslim. Last year, he continued to insist on the legitimacy of his statements: “I have every right to call Obama a Muslim ... This is America. Come away from my lawn! ”
All in all, Joe Walsh is not a “moral alternative to Trump.” However, like any other long-time resident of Washington. There whose biography is not a dig deeper, you will find compromising evidence.
This, by the way, greatly interferes with Democratic candidate Joe Biden, who has been working in the US capital for a long time. That is why he is so vulnerable under the attacks of his younger members of the same party.
Donald Trump has an important advantage over his competitors. He broke the image template from the very beginning. He has already been accused of racism, xenophobia, sexism, inciting violence, as well as working for the Kremlin. And this did not play against Trump, but against his rivals. There is already practically nothing to add to the list of charges. Donald may remain Donald and not react to black PR. And the image of a politically incorrect hooligan is only to his advantage - he was elected to change something, and not pretend to be white and fluffy.
His populist program received tremendous support in the party. For the American conservatives to start looking for some other agenda, something very serious must happen. Otherwise, in 2024, a person with the same rhetoric and set of ideologies with whom Trump went to the polls will win again at the republican primaries. So there is no software alternative to Donald.
Added to this is another important factor. Trump has been a very successful president. Anyway, bye. So neither Walsh, nor even a much more famous Republican will be able to compete with him within the party. Will the Democrats be able to impose a serious struggle on him, time will tell. But while their chances also look unimportant.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.