Presidential elections will be held in independent Abkhazia next Sunday - an event for the region is quite significant, given the background on which the election race has traditionally unfolded in this Caucasian country. Here, as always, the real Shakespearean passions rage. First, one of the most powerful candidates (opposition candidate) Aslan Bzhaniya was heavily poisoned under unclear circumstances, now the headquarters of the other, Oleg Arshba, was fired at night from unidentified small arms. And in general, the situation in Sukhumi is quite tense.
To make you understand, Abkhazian political life is a separate phenomenon in the post-Soviet space in principle. With a population of 200 thousand people in this country, about seventy percent (certainly no less) of the inhabitants are actively and deeply involved in all political realities. Civil society here is developed many times more powerful than in any European country, and - more importantly - it can really affect most of the processes. This is to say that absolutely everything is involved in politics in Abkhazia and the traditionally high competition in the presidential election is obvious for the upcoming vote.
The alarming reports from Sukhum, in particular the news about the shelling of the headquarters of one of the candidates, erroneously lead to panic conclusions: the situation in Abkhazia is unstable, unrest can begin at any time. However, for the republic itself this is a completely familiar state - in which case Abkhazians gather for a gathering (this is such a Caucasian form of rally) at the first call of the soul. So, of course, one does not have to wait for serious and real clashes.
However, keeping your finger on the pulse, of course, is worth it. In the prevailing electoral situation, there will most likely be a second round, and at least four candidates really aspire to enter it, and Oleg Arshba, whose headquarters was under fire, is just one of them. The main rivals of Arshba are the current president of the republic, Raul Khadjimba, the former head of the local security services, Astamur Tarba, and the chairman of the party of veterans of the Abkhaz-Georgian war "Amtsakhara" Alkhas Kvitsiniya. All three politicians have a worthy reputation, and I do not think that anyone in Abkhazia seriously suspects them of organizing shelling of the competitor’s headquarters. But the versions that it could be a self-propaganda sound somehow.
The fact is that many in the republic do not perceive Oleg Arshbu as an independent political figure. It is believed that behind him is the ex-president of Abkhazia and one of the most influential Abkhaz politicians, Alexander Ankvab. In case of victory, Arshba (Ankvab) will be the prime minister, and for Sukhum it is by no means a technical position.
Ankvab’s reputation is far from straightforward. When he was president and prime minister under Bagapsh, he himself was subjected to several assassinations, and despite the death of one of his guards, many in Abkhazia still consider at least some of them to be staged. Partly precisely because of this report about the shooting at the headquarters of the candidate who is considered the puppet of Ankvab, almost no one takes seriously in Abkhaz society.
However, all these Shakespearean passions, of course, make you closely monitor what is happening in this young republic.
For me, Abkhazia has always been associated with the magical realism of Marquez, Borges and Llosa - here, as in their novels, even a seemingly minor character for the story can “shoot” at any time. In this sense, Abkhazia is a champion in unpredictability (at least among most of the post-Soviet countries), and other candidates have their chances in this election race. Veteran of the Abkhaz-Georgian war and favorite of Abkhazian youth Shamil Adzynba, for example, or ex-Minister of Internal Affairs Leonid Dzyapshba in his own willful manner.
If the result of presidential solitaire is really difficult to predict, then (if we take the foreign policy aspects of everything that is happening) here the picture as it was, remains black and white. Under no circumstances will Abkhazia turn to Tbilisi, this must be understood accurately and irrevocably. And one way or another, Moscow remains the main partner for Sukhum in the region.
Russia, however, diplomatically declares in one way or another that it remains aloof from internal political processes in Abkhazia, demonstrating, as it were, a certain distance from Abkhaz sovereignty. And this, by the way, is the central issue of the intra-Abkhaz agenda. The demand to be an independent country, and not consist in permanent (primarily financial) dependence on Moscow, in civil society is very high. I am sure that for the reputation of Russia as a state that recognized the sovereignty of Sukhum (provided that the position I have formulated is genuine), this will probably be an effective approach.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.