Every day, Didier François deals with an international topic.
This is a decision that surprises and worries, the Indian government announced on Monday that it revoked the autonomy of Kashmir, a province prey for 72 years to a separatist insurgency backed by Pakistan.
This raises fears of a huge outbreak of violence in the days or weeks ahead. Even if, for the moment, we have very little news about what is really going on in Indian Kashmir. On the eve of its constitutional coup, New Delhi deployed 80,000 police officers from paramilitary units who completely cordoned off the province and cut off all communications (telephone and internet). Many local politicians are under house arrest, not just separatist leaders. Elected officials from both traditional parties have also been arrested, which is exceptional. Even tourists have been ordered to leave the area. Proof that the central government expects a strong reaction, both politically and in terms of security. Jihadist groups already conducting a violent terrorist campaign against Indian Kashmir from their back bases in Pakistan. On February 26, Indian and Pakistani air raids clashed over Kashmir after an Islamist attack that left 46 dead in the province.
What makes the situation so explosive in this region?
Kashmir is a politico-religious nightmare since the British Raj gained independence in 1947. Already at the time, India, Pakistan and even China claimed a piece of this tiny princely state lost on the foothills of the Himalayas. Because in fact this province is three valleys: the valley of Srinagar (four million inhabitants mostly Muslim and as such Pakistan believes it should return to him), the valley of Jammu (three million inhabitants who are Hindu for the most part, which explains the pretensions of India) and finally the valley of Ladakh (much smaller, with only 250,000 inhabitants but who they are Buddhists, which justifies the interest of China). It is therefore a real powder keg as Kashmir is not an official border but a simple line of cease-fire, drawn by the United Nations in 1949 to end two years of war between India and Pakistan. Moreover, for the last 70 years, countless wars, battles, skirmishes or skirmishes have ignited this demarcation, one of the most militarized in the world, between two nuclear states.
What set fire to the powder?
It seems like it's a trick of Donald Trump. Last week, he received the Pakistani president in the White House and assured him on occasion that the Indian prime minister had asked him to play the mediators on the Kashmir issue. An absolutely phenomenal blunder when you know that Narenda Modi runs a Hindu ultra nationalist party (the BJP) that does not want to hear any compromise on Kashmir. The abrogation of its autonomy which was a campaign promise of the BJP thus makes it possible to counter the accusations the opposition who shouted at the treason while galvanizing the electoral base of the Indian government.