Every morning, Etienne Lefebvre decrypts one of the most important economic news of the day.

The withholding tax should bring in a billion more revenue in the state coffers.

Yes, it was the reform that frightened everyone, and which today holds pretty surprises. We remember that last September, Emmanuel Macron had hesitated to give the green light, fearing a mega bug but also the reaction of the French who were going to see their payroll thinning. The head of state finally gave the go, and he took it: bug, there were no, or minor incidents. And taxpayers have approved the reform, considering the system simpler.

But there was another concern that had been less talked about: that of Bercy to lose a few billions in the passage of the tax collection in the year of transition. In fact, the opposite has occurred: revenues should be higher than the forecast of 1 billion euros.

How to explain such a gap?

So you have to know that before the reform, the rate of recovery of the tax was only 95% at the end of the year. To obtain more, it was necessary to multiply reminders, even contentious ones for months. With the withholding tax, this rate jumped immediately to 98.5%. The finance ministry had anticipated a rise, but not so much. And Gerald Darmanin to congratulate himself, I quote, "to make pay the tax to those who did not pay it, by fraud or phobia of formalities".

An allusion to the administrative phobia of the former Secretary of State, Thomas Thevenoud who failed to complete his tax return. Well, there are still negative effects for Bercy: there are more taxpayers who modulate their tax rate down during the year, because their income is decreasing.

But overall, it's still a good deal for the state

Yes especially as in addition to the revenue gain, there are savings to the key because there is less need for agents in Bercy. It is primarily a simplification reform - the scale does not change - for taxpayers who pay a tax more in line with their current income, and for the administration. There will not even be a need for a tax return for some 12 million taxpayers next year. All this will reduce the number of 10,000 posts in Bercy over the five-year period. For public finances, this is the double positive effect of the reform. We would now like the state reform, a little out of order, to lead to other results of this type.