Even French President Emmanuel Macron thought he could find a "great description" of migration from Africa in Stephen Smith's book. Not only was Smith's book quoted and praised in many places, it was even received in the highest spheres of power. Not everyone could join in this praise.
Last June, 500 scientists called for a "rational, realistic and scientifically sound" approach to migration. One of the triggers was the book by Stephen Smith, now available in German translation, which, despite - or perhaps because of - the distorted presentation of facts, was able to celebrate a great success in the media.
Smith argues that rapid population growth in Africa will cause a wave of migration to Europe. Within the next 30 years, he predicts, Africans will make up a substantial proportion of Europe's population - Smith speaks of 25 percent of Europeans. It would be better to prepare for a veritable "onslaught on Europe" already, because it could not be avoided: "Young Africa is relentlessly on its way to the old continent," he writes.
Political theses that are rather rhetorical strategies
Smith insists that his theses appear scientific. The journalist, who also teaches at Duke University in the US, has decorated his book with 157 footnotes and a variety of statistics. For him it is only about informing objectively and soberly and "providing a foundation of facts". But his book is far from a scientific account. Instead, Smith sells a political thesis that he deftly disguises as scientific knowledge through four rhetorical strategies.
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Stephen Smith
The first rhetorical strategy: Leading Numbers. Many numbers. Impress figures, act reputable and are also popularly quoted. The problem: According to experts, the numbers are not always right. Smith, who repeatedly insists on the predictive power of demography, does not, however, take the work of the demographers themselves so seriously. In 30 years, writes Smith, Africans are supposed to put up to "a quarter," or even "a third," of the population of Europe. There is solid research on this: Based on the current data estimates the migration researcher Francois Héran, Professor at the Collège de France, that "sub-Saharan Africans" will make up no more than three to four percent of the European population. Smith's numbers are very far away.
His second strategy: To quote as many well-known scientists as possible. Smith tries to impress the reader with a constant name dropping : he likes to cite prestigious names from philosophy (Hannah Arendt), from social science (Achille Mbembe), and even from postcolonial studies (Edward Said). The problem is that he cites many authors for the exact opposite of what they actually wrote. Some of the cited ones defend themselves vehemently: Jean Francois Bayart, for example, called Smith's book a "statistical figment of ideas and political manipulation." Others can only turn around in their graves. Only in the second half of the book does it become apparent that Smith was less inspired by philosophers than less prestigious sources. He likes to cite African autocrats (the threat of Muammar al-Gaddafi that "Europe would no longer be European tomorrow"). Writers from the right-wing French tradition are also welcome (Maurice Barrès, Jean Raspail).
Smith's third rhetorical strategy: Linking two issues: Africa's demographic growth on the one hand, and migration to Europe on the other. Smith's statement on the first issue is true, and has long been known and documented: the population of Africa is growing, and it is growing very fast. According to UN statisticians, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow from 970 million to 2.2 billion in 2050. Smith's claim to the second case, however, is groundless. Because this growth will by no means lead to a rapid increase in migration to Europe. What do the statisticians say? First, that Africans no longer migrate, but rather less than the inhabitants of other continents. Although Africa accounts for 16 percent of the world's population, the continent produces only 14 percent of migrants. The reason: poverty prevents mobility.
Smith's fourth rhetorical trick is skillfully using metaphors to causally link the unsubstantiated claim of mass migration to Europe with the scientifically-based assumption of strong population growth. First, he uses the vocabulary of hydrology: Africa is described as the "ocean of misery", which is supposed to produce a "huge wave of migration". Migrants are "flushed out of the villages into the cities", while the "next tidal wave of south-north migration is now spilling from less developed regions around the world".
"The migration from Africa resembles a fountain with several overflowing basins," writes Smith. It seems as if the constant comparison of migration with "currents" and "tidal waves" serves above all the goal of triggering the reader the feeling of drowning. This is a common practice in texts on migration: the metaphors in the field of natural disasters give an impression of unavoidability. There is finally "no solution". But at Smith, hydrology fulfills a different purpose as well: his whole thesis is based on the fact that migration works purely mechanically according to the principle of communicating tubes. Pounding on words such as "population pressure" and "deserted" thus replaces the lacking empiricism.
DISPLAY
Stephen Smith:
To Europe!
Young Africa on the way to the old continent
translated by Andreas Rostek and Dagmar Engel
edition.fotoTAPETA; 244 pages; 17,50 Euro
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Smith is right when he says the population of Africa is growing very fast. In 2050, one in five people on earth will be African. The rest of his argument is dangerous phantasmal. African mobility is not a special case, but should be monitored and discussed using the usual means of mobility and migration research: rational, realistic, and science-based.