Each morning, Axel de Tarlé decrypts one of the most important economic news of the day.

The economy with Axel de Tarlé. Will US sanctions against Iran affect fuel prices in France?

Donald Trump toughens sanctions: so far, eight countries (China, India, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, but also Greece and Italy) could continue to buy oil from Iran. But it's over, these derogations will not be renewed. These eight countries will therefore no longer have the right to buy Iranian oil - from May 1 - in a week - under penalty of US sanctions.

And how do the Chinese or the Indians take the thing? They will bow to the American "diktat"?

Of course, this American extraterritoriality goes very badly. Turkey has already indicated that it does not intend to obey Washington's injunctions. In China, the Foreign Ministry has also said it opposes "unilateral sanctions of the United States" and intends to preserve its relations with Tehran. Well, it does not prevent, this toughening of the sanctions will have an impact. By the way, yesterday, a barrel of oil rose from $ 72 to $ 74.

Does that mean we have to expect a new surge in fuel prices this summer?

Prices are unfortunately already rising. According to the latest survey of the Ufip, unleaded 95 has risen 16 cents since the beginning of the year to 1.56 euro. We came back to the price last October that triggered the movement of "yellow vests". The diesel fuel, it rises a little less: he won 9 cents, 1.47 euro.

And will it continue? We go to the liter two euros?

I do not have a crystal ball, but a priori no. First, Donald Trump has exactly the same problem with his constituents, who do not have yellow jackets but are very sensitive to the price of fuels. And so, since yesterday, he called on Saudi Arabia, which is underfoot, to compensate for this disappearance of Iranian oil. But above all, the White House press release quotes another country that will massively increase its oil production, the United States.

America produces shale oil like never before. Within two years, the country will even be a net exporter of oil. The International Energy Agency estimates that in five years, US production will have increased by four million barrels days, more than twice the production of Iran. We see it, with the technical progress, the new technologies. More oil is pumped on the ground. This idea of ​​the coming end of oil does not hold water.

It is obviously a poisoned gift, because it means that it is not by prices, but by law - with prohibitions - that we will come out at all.