Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi points out three other key areas that could be crucial for the war ahead. "Crimea is actually tied in the Ukrainian efforts to liberate the country," he said.
It is unclear exactly when Ukraine's counteroffensive is supposed to begin, but it may also take until the beginning of June. The longer you wait from the Ukrainian side, the less time you have to fight until the autumn rains come, he says. There is a limited period of favorable weather and it ends sometime in September or October.