Confidence in development based on economic dialectics (mid-year economic observation ②)
Perceive the economic cold and warm, not only look at the macro operating data, but also look at the micro main activities——
The factory workshop is in full swing.
In the smart factory of Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable Co., Ltd. in Qianjiang, Hubei, a robot wields a robotic arm.
"It has returned to the previous level in the first quarter of this year, and the large-scale deployment of 5G networks will bring a new round of development." Yan Changkun, senior vice president of the company, was full of hope.
The port and docks are constantly flowing.
In the container terminal of Chuanshan Port Area of Ningbo Zhoushan Port, the cranes are snatching non-stop, and truck loading and unloading are busy.
"Foreign trade continued to grow strongly and fully recovered to its previous throughput." Mao Jianhong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Ningbo Zhoushan Port Group, was full of confidence.
The city streets are bustling and noisy.
Shifting gears, accelerating... Beijing taxi driver Tang Baodong beamed his brows: "There are many passengers, and he can earn 10,000 yuan a month."
General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "We must scientifically analyze the situation, grasp the general trend of development, persist in looking at the current difficulties, risks, and challenges from a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective, and actively guide the whole society, especially various market entities, to increase confidence and consolidate my country’s economic stability. The basic trend of improving in the medium and long-term."
In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's economy handed over a "semi-annual report" of "stability while strengthening, and stability while improving."
What is the gold content of this "semi-annual report"?
How to treat the current economic situation dialectically?
The reporter visited companies, experts and people to feel the pace of China's high-quality economic development.
The economic development is full of colors, the quality and efficiency are steadily improved, and the development vitality is significantly enhanced
12.7%!
On July 15, China's economic growth rate in the first half of the year was announced, which immediately attracted widespread attention at home and abroad.
"Showing a steady recovery trend" "providing support for the global economic rebound"... the international community has praised them.
This "semi-annual report" is not only hard-won, but also full of gold.
——Looking at the speed of development, China's economy continues to lead the world.
Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has gradually recovered, but the recovery of various economies has been uneven.
"After becoming the only major economy that achieved positive growth last year, China's economy continued to lead the world in the first half of this year," said Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economic Relations of the National Development and Reform Commission.
In June, the World Bank released a new issue of the Global Economic Outlook, which raised the global economic growth forecast in 2021 to 5.6%, and China's economic growth forecast to 8.5%.
——Looking at the quality of development, corporate profits have generally improved, and profits have risen significantly.
In line with the wave of personalized consumption, Oupai Home Furnishing's "whole home customization" is very popular.
"The market share in the first half of the year continued to increase." Yang Yaoxing, deputy general manager and secretary of the board of directors of Oupai Home Furnishing, introduced that in the first quarter, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 340.02% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the revenue growth rate over the same period.
While China's economy continues to recover steadily, quality and efficiency have also steadily improved.
In the first half of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 66.9% year-on-year. In the first five months, the total profit of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 1.5 times.
——Looking at the vitality of development, the rapid growth of new drivers and the rapid growth of new market players.
In May, the one millionth vehicle rolled off the assembly line; in June, sales increased by 207.1% year-on-year... BYD's new energy vehicle production and sales have repeatedly hit new highs.
In the first half of the year, the vitality of China's economic development increased significantly.
The output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits increased by 205%, 69.8%, and 48.1% respectively year-on-year.
At the end of June, according to the Basic Unit Directory of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of legal entities exceeded 30 million for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.9% in June, which has been in the boom range for 16 consecutive months, reflecting the continuous improvement of market participants' confidence in future economic growth.
Looking at the economy dialectically, we should also be soberly aware that, from an international perspective, the current global epidemic continues to evolve and there are many external uncertainties and instability.
From a domestic perspective, economic recovery still differs among different industries and enterprises, and efforts are still needed to consolidate the foundation for recovery and development.
Xu Xianchun, director of the China Economic and Social Data Research Center of Tsinghua University, said that at present, we must firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and lay a more solid foundation for promoting the stable and healthy operation of the economy.
Under the influence of the base, the economic growth rate may be "high in the front and low in the back", but this does not mean that the economy is weak
Although the "semi-annual report" achieved good results, it should be noted that from 18.3% in the first quarter to 7.9% in the second quarter, the quarterly growth rate declined due to the influence of the base.
It is predicted that the whole year may show a trend of "high before and low afterwards", but the two-year average growth rate will generally remain stable.
In this regard, we must look at it from a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective.
——Looking at the essence through the phenomenon, the "high in the front and low in the back" is mainly affected by the base effect last year.
"The year-on-year growth rate is high to low, and it is impossible to make a judgment that China's economy will continue to weaken." Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that my country's GDP growth rate was -6.8%, 3.2%, and 4.9% in the first to fourth quarters of last year. And 6.5%. According to the fact that last year’s “low in the front and high in the back”, this year’s year-on-year growth rate is likely to be “high in the front and low in the back”.
If the base factor is aside, it is not difficult to find that the growth rate of 7.9% in the second quarter is actually not low.
Looking at the quarter-on-quarter growth rate, the second quarter grew by 1.3%, which was faster than the quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the first quarter. Looking at the two-year average growth rate, the second quarter grew by 5.5%, which was 0.5% faster than the first quarter.
——The normal mentality looks at the growth rate, prices and employment remain stable, and short-term fluctuations in the growth rate have little effect.
"The price of vegetables has not changed much." On July 17, Beijing resident Zhang Lan was buying vegetables at the Weicai Life Supermarket near the East Fourth Ring Road. In her opinion, prices and income are relatively stable this year.
In the first half of the year, my country’s employment prices were generally stable. Consumer prices (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year. The urban surveyed unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year. Residents’ per capita disposable income basically kept pace with economic growth.
"Based on the new development stage, implementing the new development concept, and building a new development pattern, we must pay more attention to employment, social security, and common prosperity related indicators of people's livelihood." Yang Changyong said.
—— The long-term trend will not change, and the current growth rate is within a reasonable range, and China's economy will be stable and improve in the long run.
Xu Xianchun believes that although the growth rate fluctuates, the overall endogenous driving force of the Chinese economy continues to increase, and it is guaranteed to achieve the expected target of economic growth for the whole year.
Looking at the long-term, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the prospects for development are very bright.
my country has a population of more than 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of more than 400 million. It has a super-large-scale market advantage and has a solid demand base for realizing a large domestic cycle; my country has the world's most complete and largest industrial system and complete supporting capabilities, and its research and development capabilities continue There is a solid supply foundation for upgrading and realizing the domestic large-scale circulation.
"Under the new development pattern where the domestic big cycle is the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other, expanding domestic demand, especially expanding consumption, will create more favorable conditions for the long-term stable growth of China's economy." said Huang Zhiling from the China International Economic Exchange Center.
The pressure to stabilize growth may be small, but high-quality development must be continuously promoted during the window period
Many experts said that looking forward to the whole year, China's economic growth rate can meet or exceed the expected target, it is necessary to use the window period with less pressure to stabilize growth, promote economic stability and improvement, concentrate on deepening supply-side structural reforms, and open up the domestic market. The large-scale circulation and the domestic and international dual-circulation blockage points provide continuous impetus for my country's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
——Precise implementation of macroeconomic policies to achieve a higher level of equilibrium in the recovery of the economy.
Recently, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is intended to improve financial service capabilities and better support the real economy.
"The current macro policy focuses on enhancing the resilience of overall economic recovery, improving the quality of economic development, and promoting a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand." Xu Xianchun said.
—— Deepen the supply-side structural reforms, and practice the "internal strength" of high-quality development.
"The changes in the external environment are uncontrollable, and only hard-working internal skills can control risks." Liu Qihong, chairman of Zhejiang Changlong Airlines, told reporters that in June of this year, Changlong Airlines began to make efforts on the supply side to continuously improve its intelligent flight operation capabilities.
Yang Changyong said that in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", supply-side structural reforms must not only adhere to the established goals and tasks, but also closely integrate with the new development stage, the implementation of new development concepts, and the establishment of a new development pattern, so as to continuously improve the domestic market. The quality and efficiency of the supply chain of the industrial chain.
——Accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and open up the domestic large-scale circulation, domestic and international dual circulation blocking points.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, whether substantial progress can be made in building a new development pattern is related to maintaining sustained and healthy economic and social development, and to achieving the second centenary goal as scheduled.
"The current primary blocking point is that the quality and efficiency of the supply side cannot fully adapt to the changes on the demand side." Yang Changyong believes that the most fundamental way to break through the blocking point should be driven by innovation, especially in promoting technological innovation and optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure. , Intensify efforts to maintain the security of the industrial chain and supply chain.
Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counsel’s Office of the State Council, believes that in the future, China’s economic development will be a complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept. It should be development driven by innovation; Inter-industry coordination; it should be green development to promote the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutral goals; it should be open development; it should also be shared development, so that the results of reform and development will benefit the people more and more equitably.
Our reporter Wu Qiuyu and Zhao Zhanhui