Entering the period of intensive disclosure of annual reports, how will the A-share market be interpreted?
The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities companies. Most of them believe that under the background of repeated domestic epidemics and overseas currency contraction, the market is in a period of grinding bottom, or continues to fluctuate sideways.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities said that from a medium-term perspective, the market is in a bottom-out period.
On the one hand, the economy has entered a stage of active destocking, and the epidemic has disrupted the economy.
On the other hand, the rapid rise in US bond interest rates has not stabilized, and the geopolitical situation is also uncertain.
Guotai Junan Securities also pointed out that the current stock investment is like driving in a "foggy day". Although the fog will eventually dissipate, it may still fluctuate sideways until the credit path is clear.
CITIC Securities predicts that mid-April will not only be the inflection point of the current round of local epidemics in China, but also a key window for the second effort to stabilize the growth policy.
If the inflection point of the epidemic and the policy force are superimposed as expected, the mid-term recovery of the A-share market is expected to run through the second and third quarters.
In terms of configuration, stable growth is still the main line configuration that many securities companies are optimistic about.
CICC said that in general, steady growth may still be the main line at present.
Among them, combined with the characteristics of the overall low market risk appetite during the bottoming period, the current stable growth areas with low valuations still have phased relative allocation value.
CITIC Securities also recommends that investors continue to closely follow the main line of stabilizing growth, and firmly deploy "low valuation" and "expected low" varieties.
CITIC Securities: The medium-term repair market is expected to run through the second and third quarters
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is expected that mid-April will be the turning point of the current round of the epidemic and a key window for the second effort to stabilize the growth policy. If the inflection point of the epidemic and the point of policy effort are superimposed as expected, the mid-term recovery of A-shares will run through the second and third quarters.
On the one hand, in this round of local epidemics, the newly confirmed cases are expected to usher in an inflection point in mid-April. It is expected that after this round of local epidemics is effectively controlled, local policies will be rebalanced between epidemic prevention and control and economic development to ease the economy. pressure.
On the other hand, it is expected that the disclosure of economic data will lead to a second focus on the policy of stabilizing growth. Among them, the "package" policy for real estate will continue to increase, and mid-April is also a key window for policy interest rate cuts.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors continue to closely follow the main line of stabilizing growth, firmly deploy "low valuation" and "expected low" varieties, and focus on real estate and infrastructure industry chains in the second quarter.
CICC: Steady growth may still be the current main line
Looking ahead, the growth and inflation at home and abroad are more and more characterized by "internal stagnation and external inflation". The current round of overseas tightening cycle is mainly due to the over-stimulation of some overseas economies, high inflation, and monetary policy lagging inflation. At the same time, China's own growth has been hovering at the bottom, and the policy of stabilizing growth is expected to continue to exert force.
Under such a comprehensive background, the impact of this round of overseas tightening on the Chinese market may be relatively limited, and the pressure of capital outflow and RMB depreciation may be less than in the past.
In terms of allocation, the recent value style has clearly outperformed the growth. In general, the current policy of stabilizing growth is still relatively positive, but the effect will take time. Combined with the impact of the recent domestic epidemic, there is still room for further strengthening of the policy. "Stable growth" may be Will still be the current mainline.
In terms of strategy, combined with the overall low risk appetite of the market during the bottoming period, and the consistency of global growth underperforming value in the context of tightening overseas liquidity, the current stable growth areas with low valuations are still relatively phased. configuration value.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities: You can wait patiently at the bottom grinding stage
In general, the market is in a bottom-up period from a medium-term perspective and faces some challenges.
On the one hand, the economy has entered a stage of active destocking, and the epidemic has disrupted the economy.
On the other hand, the rapid rise in US bond interest rates has not stabilized, and there are uncertainties in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the geopolitical situation.
At the current point in time, it is suggested that investors should be patient and not rash, waiting for the opportunity for fundamentals to bottom out, the external environment to improve or policies to be strongly relaxed.
First of all, the bottom of the policy has been further confirmed, and we need to wait for a clearer signal of fundamental repair.
Secondly, the stock price is already relatively high, but it may still need to be fully changed.
In terms of configuration, if there is a major adjustment in the market, it can also be gradually deployed, and the layout direction will focus on early-cycle varieties.
At the same time, if the interest rate of US bonds stabilizes in the future and the domestic loose currency is strengthened, we can consider gradually increasing the allocation to growth.
Guotai Junan Securities: Continue to change positions
Currently investing in stocks is like driving in a foggy day. The key is to find stocks with low valuations, high performance and high dividends.
Looking forward to the market outlook, although the fog will eventually dissipate and spring will finally come, it may still fluctuate sideways until the credit path is clear.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended to select stocks around the certainty of performance.
In addition to cyclical manufacturing, due to the continuation of the epidemic, the supply of some consumer industries has also contracted, resulting in an increase in allocation value.
Among them, investors can recommend three directions: First, coal, chemical resource products, and finance with dividend strategy.
The second is wind photovoltaic, power grid, construction and so on.
The third is live pigs, liquor and consumer services.
Among them, although growth assets such as "track stocks" have been squeezed by a large valuation, it is still recommended that investors should continue to change positions, and even more in the rebound, not greedy for temporary wins.
Haitong Securities: Growth in the second quarter is expected to be dominant in stages
The Fed's interest rate hike, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the domestic epidemic caused the market to encounter a "cold winter" in the first quarter. Investor confidence was frustrated and market sentiment was depressed.
But looking back, the market will slowly fill the hole in the future.
Specifically, the bottom of the current round of policies started at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021, and the market bottom may have appeared when the panic fell in mid-March 2022. Looking at the future, the driving force for the market to climb the pit comes from the steady growth policy.
From the perspective of configuration, the main line in the first half of the year is the policy of stabilizing growth, and the main line in the second half is economic recovery.
In terms of quarterly style, in the first quarter of 2022, benefiting from the steady growth policies of traditional sectors such as infrastructure and real estate, the value style will dominate in stages.
After entering the second quarter, growth is expected to dominate in stages. The possible catalysts are policies and fundamentals.
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to continue to focus on the main line of stable growth, such as financial real estate and new infrastructure.
Among them, new infrastructure is more flexible, and can focus on low-carbon economy, digital economy, etc.
GF Securities: The bottom of value stocks may have appeared
Looking forward to the market outlook, the upward trend of US bond real interest rates and the marginal changes in the expansion of A-share credit structure are all conducive to the value style.
Among them, the rankings are large-cap value, small-cap value, small-cap growth, and large-cap growth.
Under the premise that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is controllable, the big bottom of A-share large-cap value stocks may have appeared, but before the blockage of real estate supply and demand and dynamic clearing and epidemic prevention have not changed significantly, the bottom of A-share earnings cannot be expected to form a consensus, so value stocks may It has been dominated by shocks, and growth stocks will still be trapped in the upward trend of US Treasury real interest rates and changes in the supply and demand pattern.
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to pay attention to the inflation benefit chain and the direction of "steady growth": First, the resources and materials that benefit from the "supply-demand gap" inflation logic, such as coal, aluminum, and potash fertilizers.
The second is the "old-style" steady growth force to carry the role of economic "stabilizer", such as real estate, consumer building materials, home appliances, etc.
The third is to "turn the old into the new" to stabilize the growth of the traditional cycle of "low-carbon transformation", such as green buildings, coal chemical industry, etc.
Industrial Securities: Pay attention to the spread and spillover of the real estate market
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to focus on three directions: real estate, stable growth, and high prosperity in the first quarter.
First of all, for the real estate sector, although there have been periodic fluctuations after continuous sharp rises.
However, in the mid-term, whether from the perspective of time or space, the market may not end, and you can pay attention to state-owned real estate, trust and so on.
Secondly, under the stock game environment, we should pay attention to the spread of the market from real estate to the "steady growth" sector as a whole.
After the sharp rise in real estate, the price-performance ratio of the “stable growth”-related sectors that are similar to real estate style attributes, also benefit from the expected increase in policy relaxation, and whose growth rate is relatively lagging behind, has become prominent.
At the same time, global markets remain in a chaotic mess of high volatility and low risk appetite.
Building materials, construction, banking, securities companies and other sectors are both security and policy-driven, and they can attack and retreat.
Finally, the quarterly results that exceed expectations will become an important support for the performance of the sector.
At present, among the stocks that disclosed the first quarterly report in advance and pre-winned, photovoltaic, chemical, pharmaceutical, semiconductor, etc. have higher disclosure rates, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is higher.
Caitong Securities: Opportunities in the second quarter are dominated by "big finance"
Looking forward to the second quarter of 2022, the situation of external chaos and internal stability will continue. The global liquidity interest rate turning point has been formed. Funds have returned to low-risk assets and developed markets. Global investors have staged aversion to high-valued products.
The internal economic growth pressure is relatively large, and corporate profits are in a downward cycle, which makes the overall market bottom in the second quarter, and the opportunities are dominated by "big finance".
When the external disturbance factors basically subside, the direction of the global capital flow of the Korean stock market appears, and the internal economy and profits recover, the market is expected to usher in a counter-offensive moment.
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to take "big fast and small slow" as the main configuration idea.
"Big fast" means that the allocation of "big finance" should be early and fast, and the allocation of "small slow" market value service consumption and small-cap growth stocks should be slow. Don't be in a hurry to buy bottoms. soft growth, etc.
Specifically, in terms of service consumption, it is recommended to pay attention to transportation, catering, tourism, hotels, medical services, etc., and in terms of soft growth, it is recommended to pay attention to intelligent driving, cloud computing chain, VR, AR, metaverse chain, etc.
Essence Securities: Steady Growth Realized, High Prosperity Turnaround
With the convening of the two sessions and the meeting of the financial stability committee, the future will gradually enter a stage of stable growth and realization of high prosperity.
In the process of stable growth and realization, there is a high probability that there will be a wave of excess market prices in real estate or consumer stocks, and then it will gradually transition to the direction of high prosperity.
In the short term, the excess real estate market may continue until the market transaction is expected to gradually rise to the predetermined economic goal, that is, to complete the mission of "steady growth" in this round.
However, the proliferation of the real estate excess market to the real estate chain is based on the demand-side driving logic, and subsequent verification of real estate fundamental data (such as sales data) is required.
Looking forward to the market outlook, in the grinding stage from "policy bottom to market bottom", the market is facing the suppression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty. Low-value, value-based and counter-cyclical industries (such as infrastructure, real estate), and weak-cycle industries perform well. in growth industries.
However, after passing the bottom-grinding stage, with the recovery of risk appetite, the market will return to the growth style, and the high risk appetite sector is expected to perform better.
Huaxi Securities: Repeated grinding
Looking forward to the market outlook, overseas, short-term global "stagflation" worries are difficult to subside, and the Fed's accelerated monetary tightening will also disrupt major global assets.
Domestically, the repeated local epidemics caused economic activities in some regions to press the pause button, further increasing the downward pressure on the economy.
Therefore, under the requirement of the policy to "strengthen ahead and strengthen in time", the monetary environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. The April Politburo meeting will continue to focus on "steady growth" as the main policy keynote.
At present, A shares are still in the process of repeatedly grinding the bottom. In terms of style, the dividend strategy and stable growth value blue chips are still better.
In terms of industry configuration, investors are advised to pay attention to three main lines: First, infrastructure-related buildings and building materials.
The second is real estate-related finance and real estate.
The third is the breeding of sectors that are expected to gradually improve in distressed industries.