Chinanews client, Beijing, October 15th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Pork prices have significantly narrowed year-on-year growth and declined month-on-year. In September, both the month-on-year and year-on-year growth rates of CPI declined. Among them, CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, the first 18 months Back to the "1 era" again.

Do you feel the price drop?

CPI growth chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI gains return to "1 era"

　　According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced on the 15th, from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 1.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, food prices rose by 7.9%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 1.69 percentage points; non-food prices changed from 0.1% last month to the same level.

　　This is also the first time since February 2019 that the year-on-year increase in CPI has returned to the "1 era" after a lapse of 18 months.

　　Judging from the CPI growth chart, after reaching the bottom in February 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise or stay flat in the following months. After reaching a high of 5.4% in January 2020, it fell back, and was slightly affected by the southern floods in July. Rebounded, but then fell again.

Why did the increase fall sharply?

　　Dong Lijuan said that in food, pork prices increased by 25.5% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 27.1 percentage points from the previous month; beef and mutton prices rose by 9.0% and 5.4%, respectively, and their growth rates fell by 5.4 and 4.3 percentage points respectively; eggs, chicken and duck meat Prices fell by 17.7%, 9.1%, and 4.7%, respectively, and the decline expanded by 5.3, 7.5, and 3.8 percentage points, respectively.

　　"Among non-food, transportation and communications prices fell by 3.6%, of which gasoline and diesel prices fell by 15.0% and 16.6%, respectively." Dong Lijuan pointed out that according to estimates, in September’s 1.7% year-on-year increase, last year’s price changes had a lift-up effect. About 1.2 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase is about 0.5 percentage points.

Data map: Changsha citizens buy pork in supermarkets.

Photo by Lu Yi

The price of pork at C has dropped

　　It can be seen from the data that the increase in meat, poultry and eggs has fallen, especially the increase in pork prices has narrowed significantly, which is the main reason for the drop in the year-on-year increase in food prices.

　　For many months, the price of pork has remained at the “C” position in the CPI increase factor.

However, the influence has continued to weaken in recent months.

According to the analysis, in July, August and September, the year-on-year increase of pork prices was 85.7%, 52.6% and 25.5%, respectively, showing a continued narrowing trend.

　　"Affected by the increase in the base number last year, the year-on-year increase in pork prices fell sharply." said Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

　　At the same time, the price of pork has stopped rising and falling. Recently, "the price of pork has fallen" has become a hot topic on the Internet.

　　"The price of pork has dropped slightly recently. For example, pork belly is now 35 yuan a catty, and it used to sell for 36 yuan a catty." A staff member of a community supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

　　Since the beginning of this year, as of the end of September, Huachu.com has put in 35 batches of about 600,000 tons of frozen pork from the central reserve, effectively increasing the market's pork supply.

　　In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs disclosed data on the 10th that as of now, the national stock of live pigs and reproductive sows has recovered to more than 80% of normal years.

Data map: Farmers care for piglets.

Photo by Han Zhangyun

Industry: Pork prices will gradually return to normal prices next year

　　Faced with the falling prices of "Second Brothers", many people worry about whether it will be "short-lived".

　　Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, believes that pork prices have reached an inflection point and will continue to fall in the next few months, and the possibility of a sharp rise again is unlikely.

　　Numerous signs indicate that pork prices have really reached an "inflection point" and the "pig cycle" has entered a downward channel.

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig stock in July increased by 13.1% year-on-year.

This is the first year-on-year increase in pig stocks since April 2018.

　　"The year-on-year increase in the live pig inventory indicates that 5-6 months later, the number of live pigs will also increase year-on-year, which will fundamentally reverse the tight market supply." The relevant person in charge of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said.

　　"At present, the production capacity of pig farming is in the recovery period, and it is expected that the production capacity will be realized in the fourth quarter of this year." Sun Fu, chief analyst at Huaxi Securities, predicts that from the Spring Festival to the middle of 2021, the number of pigs for slaughter will increase and the supply will rise sharply. , And demand enters the off-season after the Spring Festival, the price of pigs will drop significantly.

　　New Hope Group Chairman Liu Yonghao also believes that after the middle of next year, it is possible that pork prices will gradually return to normal prices, and the people across the country will surely be able to enjoy pork with reasonable prices and good quality.

Data map: People buy pork in a Jingkelong supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Jiang Qiming

In the fourth quarter, the CPI will remain "one era". Is deflation coming?

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from October 5 to 11, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped by 1.1% from the previous week.

Among them, the wholesale price of pork was 44.13 yuan per kilogram, down 3.1%.

　　"From a later point of view, the foundation for stable price operations in China is still solid. With the gradual recovery of live pig production and the obvious reduction of tail-lifting factors, the year-on-year increase in CPI is expected to continue to stabilize." National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Meng Wei recently pointed out.

　　Liu Xuezhi told a reporter from Chinanews.com, “With the fall of food prices, the CPI in the fourth quarter may remain in the '1 era'.”

　　"The CPI has increased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first nine months, and has fallen back to the annual control target of 3.5%. In the next stage, the CPI base figure accelerated in the same period last year, and it is expected that the CPI growth rate will continue to show a downward trend." Wen, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank Bin also said.

　　The rise of CPI has fallen, and some people are even worried about whether it will be deflationary.

In this regard, Liu Xuezhi said that although the fall in food prices has led to a decline in CPI growth, as demand is gradually recovering, it is unlikely that CPI will further fall to a negative value, and there is no obvious deflation.

(Finish)