Securities Times reporter Yan Cui
In recent days, policies to stabilize the property market have been introduced intensively in various places. Statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Institute show that as of May 20, more than 56 cities have issued policies to stabilize the property market in the month.
On May 23, Harbin also joined the ranks of stabilizing the property market, issuing a notice to abolish the real estate market regulation policy introduced in May 2018.
Securities Times reporters found that this round of new real estate policies presents three new features: First, this round of new real estate policies is no longer purely to stimulate housing demand, but is combined with local population policies and talent policies, hoping to achieve multiple goals with one stone. For example, the latest real estate policies in Wuhan, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Luzhou, Changzhou, Shenyang and other places; second, this round of housing purchase policies is no longer relatively unified across the country, but has more autonomy in various places, and they all adopt flexible and diverse measures according to their own conditions. The measures to stabilize the property market are implemented by city, such as Changsha, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Dezhou, Rizhao, Lianyungang, Huizhou, etc; The greatest strength was achieved, and the gap between housing purchase policies in different cities widened.
Many experts and industry insiders who were interviewed by reporters said that the biggest problem in the current real estate market is the lack of social confidence. The current policy adjustment is still not a major positive, but only a partial adjustment, and it is difficult to have a large-scale boost to the market in the short term. , but overall the current real estate market has begun to bottom out.
Integrate with population talent policy
Combining it with other policies such as population policy and talent policy is a new feature of this round of new policies to stabilize the property market, and it is also a new trend in the future.
On May 14, the Dongguan Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau issued a new policy for the property market in the early morning, pointing out that commercial banks should implement differentiated housing credit policies, reasonably determine the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for commercial individual housing loans, and, in addition, to comply with the national fertility policy for childbirth Resident families with two or three children are allowed to purchase a new set of commercial housing.
Coincidentally, Nanjing's latest new house purchase policy also pointed out that Nanjing households with two or more children can buy a new set of commercial housing, and can also enjoy the support of the relevant bank's most preferential loan interest rate.
Hangzhou's new policy is clear, when eligible three-child families sign up for the public lottery sales of new commercial housing, they will refer to the "houseless families" priority lottery.
There are many cases of the combination of the new property market policy and other policies. Shenyang's latest housing purchase policy has loosened the conditions for purchase restrictions to favor families with two or more children, as well as young talents.
Shenyang has made it clear that households with two or three children under the age of 18 who already own two sets of housing in the Shenyang administrative area can purchase an additional set of new commercial housing in the Shenyang purchase-restricted area.
Shenyang also stipulates that for families with second and third children under the age of 18 who pay the housing provident fund and use housing provident fund loans to purchase self-occupied housing, the loan limit can be relaxed to 1.3 times the current maximum loan amount.
In addition, for young talents, Shenyang has once again expanded the scope and intensity of provident fund loans. For full-time college graduates with a bachelor’s degree or above within 5 years of graduation from Shen’s employment, the provident fund loan limit can be relaxed to 1.2 times the current maximum loan amount.
On May 19, Luzhou, Sichuan also issued a document clarified that active duty soldiers, retired soldiers, Luzhou rural household registration personnel, non-Luzhou household registration personnel, university (including junior college and undergraduate) graduates who graduated within five years, and second children, A one-time subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price of a new house is given to a family with three children.
In addition, Wuhu, Anhui Province will give eligible young talents a housing subsidy of up to 200,000 yuan, while Shandong Rizhao will give young talents a housing subsidy of up to 100,000 yuan, and at the same time increase the maximum amount of the first provident fund loan to purchase a house to 1 million yuan.
The situation has become a trend.
According to incomplete statistics, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Dongguan, Leshan, Mianyang, Dazhou, Suzhou, Luzhou and other cities have introduced new house purchase policies for families with multiple children.
In addition, the latest housing purchase policies in cities such as Changzhou, Wuhu, Shenyang, Hebi, Rizhao, Yangzhou, and Luzhou have given preference to young talents in terms of loan restrictions and sales restrictions.
Zhang Lei, a postdoctoral researcher at Peking University, told the Securities Times reporter that my country will enter an aging society with low birthrates. The declining new population and the increasing elderly population by express delivery are my country's future population trends, and the policy experience of developed countries such as Japan shows that any individual Only by establishing a package of family support plans covering marriage, childbirth, education, housing, pension, social security, etc., and optimizing the supply of public services and the allocation of public resources, can family development be fully guaranteed. This is the reason why this round of new housing purchase policies in multiple places are combined with policies such as talent and population.
Yue Xiangyu, deputy director of market research at Ping An Real Estate, also told reporters that taking more children as a precondition for relaxing restrictions actually narrowed the scope of application of the policy and eased the easing efforts, mainly because some regions hoped to gradually increase the weight through tentative easing. , to avoid the rapid pace of relaxation, which will lead to a rapid heating of the market. Compared with the previous easing policies, the forms are more abundant.
Many experts said that the combination with population and talent policies is gradually becoming a new trend in a new round of real estate policy optimization. The housing support policy for families with multiple children can not only promote the release of reasonable housing demand, but also encourage fertility, fertility, etc. to a certain extent. Promoting population growth, combined with talent policies, is conducive to attracting talents for employment in various places. It is expected that more cities will follow suit.
Various forms and city-specific policies
More flexible, diverse, and localized home purchase policies are also a major feature of this round of policies to stabilize the property market.
Among the policies that have been introduced in this round, all localities have flexibly adopted one or more of adjusting the provident fund, optimizing the loan limit, reducing the down payment ratio, implementing deed tax concessions, reducing the sales restriction period, giving house purchase subsidies, and revitalizing the rental market according to their own conditions. Measures to adjust the home purchase policy of the city in which it is located.
Changsha is one of the more eye-catching cities in this round of new policies to stabilize the property market.
Its latest house purchase policy clarifies that houses that have been handed over by online signing and filing or have undergone real estate registration will not be included in the calculation of the number of family housing units after they are revitalized for rental housing.
In this regard, some voices believe that the Changsha New Deal is equivalent to issuing a free "room ticket" to the vast majority of improvement families who have a strong demand for replacement.
However, the official answer from the Changsha Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau stated that the policy is still limited. For example, the owner needs to sign the "Changsha City Revitalize the Existing Housing for Rental Housing Cooperation Agreement" with the pilot enterprise, and revitalize the existing housing for rental housing. The period of time shall not be less than 10 years. At the same time, during the current qualification review, if one or more houses are revitalized for leasing on a family basis, the total number of family houses will be temporarily reduced according to the principle of "one house is reduced by one", that is, there are For families with multiple houses for rent, only one set is deducted from the calculation of the number of houses in the family.
A number of hot cities such as Tianjin, Dongguan, Huizhou, Foshan, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Jinan have also launched "optional actions" according to their own conditions.
Tianjin raised the maximum limit of provident fund loans for the purchase of a family's first house from 600,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan; Dongguan adjusted the value-added tax exemption period for personal housing transfers from 5 years to 2 years, and commercial housing can obtain real estate ownership certificates for 2 years. Carry out transaction transfer; Huizhou cancels the purchase restrictions in Huiyang District and Daya Bay District; Foshan does not account for the purchase quota for second-hand houses after 5 years, and the transaction is not restricted; Hangzhou New Deal stipulates that the purchase of second-hand houses within 5 years of settlement cancels the social security requirements, not the original Families with household registration in the city can purchase houses after paying social security or personal tax for 12 consecutive months, lowering the threshold for the purchase of second-hand houses; the 3-year limit on the sale of first-hand houses in Suzhou has been adjusted to 2 years, and the limit on the sale of second-hand houses has been completely cancelled.
Some cities have launched a combination of measures to stimulate housing purchases. For example, the latest policy to stabilize the property market in Luzhou, Sichuan involves granting housing subsidies, optimizing land transfer conditions, adjusting and implementing tax policies, implementing differentiated housing credit policies, canceling mortgage loan deposits, and optimizing second-hand housing online signing. Filing, taxation, transfer registration workflow and many other aspects.
Changzhou, Jiangsu Province and Shenyang, Liaoning Province are also sincere in their policies to stabilize the property market. Among them, Changzhou adjusted the sales restriction period from 4 years to 2 years after obtaining the real estate title certificate, and reduced the down payment ratio of the second housing provident fund loan from 50% to 30%. At the same time, the maximum loan amount of the provident fund is increased from 300,000 to 600,000, and the maximum for households is 900,000.
In addition, Changzhou has also increased its support for high-end talents such as Changzhou doctors and masters under the age of 35.
Other cities have a variety of new policies to stabilize the property market. Luoyang, Shangrao, Lianyungang, Meizhou and other cities have reduced the down payment ratio to 20%, and Zhuzhou, Nanyang, Huangshi, Yueyang, Hebi, etc. may have deed tax concessions or house purchase subsidies. The VAT exemption period for personal housing transfer has been adjusted from 5 years to 2 years.
The size of loosening varies greatly
At present, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities in the country have not introduced other significant policies to stabilize the property market except for the national interest rate cut policy.
The new policy of canceling the purchase restriction of second-hand houses in Nanjing was urgently deleted within three hours of the official announcement. Before this April, a bank in Guangzhou launched the "relay loan" and was also stopped on the same day.
It can be seen that in the real estate market, key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have not significantly relaxed.
According to the analysis of the China Index Research Institute, from the perspective of the policy focus of various tier cities, first-tier cities fine-tune policies in terms of housing subsidies, settlement/introduction of talents, etc., while second-tier cities focus more on optimizing purchase restrictions, adjusting provident funds, distributing housing subsidies, settlement/introduction of talents, etc. The policies adjusted in the third- and fourth-tier cities are more focused on providing housing subsidies, housing support for families with multiple children, and settlement/introduction of talents. The weaker third- and fourth-tier cities have relaxed their loan policies to the lowest level stipulated by national policies, which is stimulating consumption for housing purchases. In terms of intensity, they are the strongest in this round of policy waves.
The Middle Finger Research Institute believes that in the short term, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee set the tone for the real estate market to "support localities to improve real estate policies based on local realities." Continue to focus on fine-tuning, and use talent introduction or bailout as a breakthrough to restore market confidence. It is expected that other cities will continue to increase the intensity of policies, and restrictive policies such as loan restrictions and sales restrictions are expected to be optimized.
On April 18, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued 23 measures, once again clarifying the real estate setting of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations".
On April 29, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, support local governments to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing needs, and optimize pre-sale funds for commercial housing. Supervision to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
It is understood that this is a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee that has paid special attention to the real estate industry for many years, which shows that the real estate market situation is grim.
The central government supports local governments to improve real estate policies based on local realities, which shows the central government's supportive attitude towards improving real estate policies based on city-specific policies and releases a more positive and clear signal.
From the data point of view, my country's real estate industry is indeed not optimistic in the first quarter of this year.
In the first quarter of this year, the national real estate development investment increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate further declined. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 22.7% year-on-year.
In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities increased by 48% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 47%. The overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies also dropped significantly by 47% year-on-year.
Lack of confidence is the biggest problem
Zhang Lei told the Securities Times reporter that this year, under the impact of a new round of the epidemic, the real estate market has accelerated its downward trend.
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of major data such as real estate investment, sales, new construction, and construction continued to be negative, and the rate of decline continued to expand, making it even more difficult for the real estate industry to stabilize.
At present, lack of confidence is the biggest problem for real estate. The key to changing the downward trend of real estate is to reverse the expectations of society, especially residents, on the real estate industry.
The current policy adjustment is still not a major positive, only a partial adjustment, and it is difficult to have a large-scale boosting effect on the entire market in the short term.
Yue Xiangyu told the Securities Times reporter that before the current round of the epidemic, the macro economy and real estate sales were both in decline. Under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it was difficult for residents in some areas to go out, and it was impossible to talk about buying a house. This accelerated the real estate market to bottom.
Under normal circumstances, whether the real estate control policy is relaxed or tightened, even if it is effective, there must be a certain lag.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the effects of various policies will be further delayed, at least not until the end of the lockdown.
In addition, under the condition that the keynote of "housing, not speculating" remains unchanged, local governments will try their best to stabilize the trend of housing prices, avoid skyrocketing and slumping, and residents will be more rational in purchasing houses. Therefore, although the certainty of the market recovery is high, the pace will not be too fast. .
An Guangyong, an expert from the Credit Management Committee of the All-China Mergers and Acquisitions Trade Union, also told reporters that the entire real estate industry is currently in a period of serious decline, and the repeated new crown pneumonia epidemics since the beginning of this year have made the industry worse.
Wu Zhongyan, an insider in the financial system, said that the real estate industry has a long chain and a strong driving effect. This round of stabilizing the property market policy has practical significance and positive effects on new citizens and young college students living and working in peace and contentment, and taking root in one place. Clear and real estate enterprise funds return and so on.
Judging from the trends of home buyers from all over the world, this round of policies to stabilize the property market has stimulated consumers' demand for home purchases to a certain extent.
According to media reports, institutional data shows that the average daily listings of second-hand housing in Hangzhou two days after the New Deal was nearly seven times the average daily net listings in the past month before the New Deal.
A number of interviewed real estate agents said that since the 17th, the number of inquiries about second-hand housing has increased significantly.
Out of optimism about the market prospects, individual owners in Hangzhou raised the listing price, and some owners raised 800,000 yuan at one time.
But for property owners who have raised prices sharply, the broker's blunt statement is a bit outrageous.
Real estate agents from Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Suzhou also said that recently, more people have come to see houses.
Zhang Bo, dean of the 58 Anju Room Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the overall real estate market has not shown a comprehensive recovery trend in April, and the downward pressure on housing prices in some cities still exists, and market confidence is in the stage of bottoming and rebounding.
In addition, from a national perspective, the easing of property market policies is getting stronger and stronger.
On May 20, less than a week after the lower limit of the first personal housing commercial loan interest rate was lowered by 20 basis points on May 15, the central bank announced a new LPR interest rate, which is closely related to personal housing mortgage loans. Down 15 basis points to 4.45%.
This means that the room for further reduction of mortgage interest rates is further opened, and the minimum can be as low as 4.25%.
According to the mainstream housing loan interest rate data in key cities released by the Shell Research Institute, in May 2022, the mainstream first-home mortgage interest rates in 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute were 4.91%, and the second set of mortgage interest rates were 5.32%, down 26 and 13 respectively from the previous month. 1 basis point, hitting a new low since 2019.