Nobel Prize Mr. Syukuro Manabe Predicting the effects of "warming" more than 50 years ago

Mr. Syukuro Manabe (90), who was selected as the winner of this year's Nobel Prize in Physics.

More than 50 years ago, we announced ahead of the rest of the world that "If carbon dioxide increases, the temperature of the earth will rise. It will lead to global warming."

Based on these results, research on global warming and climate change has progressed.

“Very simple and esoteric model”

To commemorate the selection of Mr. Manabe as the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physics, a talk event was held on the 6th at the National Museum of Emerging Science and Innovation in Koto-ku, Tokyo to introduce Mr. Manabe's research and achievements. ..

About 10 people, including junior high school students who visited as part of the class, participated in the event, and a science communicator explained Mr. Manabe's research while projecting figures and photographs.

"Mr. Manabe made a very simple and esoteric climate prediction model more than 50 years ago. These achievements scientifically confirmed that global warming was caused by human activities." Praised.

"Basics of modern climate research"

The Nobel Prize-winning committee states that Mr. Manabe's award was "the basis for modern climate research."

Its climate model.

Mr. Manabe is said to have elucidated for the first time in the world how the "radiation balance", which is the energy received by the earth's surface from the ocean minus the energy that escapes into space, and how air and water vapor affect each other.

In 1960, Mr. Manabe was working at the US Meteorological Bureau on the issue of global warming, which is what happens to the climate if greenhouse gases increase.

The climate of the earth is a very complicated phenomenon in which heat and water vapor are exchanged between the atmosphere, the sea, and the land, and changes occur one after another. I made a prediction using a computer.

A 1967 paper states that doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide raises the average global temperature by about 2.3 degrees Celsius.

In an interview after the award was decided, Mr. Manabe said, "When I was in the geophysics department of the University of Tokyo, I was developing a climate model by developing weather forecasts, and I was curious at first, but I was called by the United States. In the 1960s, the United States was very focused on scientific research in the midst of competition against the backdrop of the Cold War, and began developing a global climate model with unlimited use of computers. It was introduced well, and I was fortunate to be called to the United States, and I was also fortunate that the computer made rapid progress.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said, "60 years ago, computers (processing speeds) were 1 / 100,000 times faster than they are today. Mr. Manabe's model was relatively simple, but Mr. Manabe is exactly. I was able to capture important features. "

“Intuitive with big eyes”

Akimasa Sumi, a specially appointed professor at the University of Tokyo's Future Vision Research Center, who has been in the same research field as Mr. Manabe for nearly 40 years, commented on Mr. Manabe's research. Mr. Manabe had the thinking ability and sense to think about it intuitively by looking at it with a big eye. "

"The very first of climate calculations"

Masahide Kimoto, President of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, who has been interacting with researchers in the same field as Mr. Manabe for more than 20 years, said, "Mr. Manabe was the first to start development toward climate calculation, and at the very beginning of climate calculation, everything It is no exaggeration to say that Manabe-san's group did it. If we had not calculated to increase carbon dioxide at that time, the problem of warming would have been recognized later and more unmanageable. It may be. "

Research results can be used for familiar forecasts

Mr. Manabe's research results are used not only for global warming, but also for "long-range forecasts" that are familiar to us, such as the outlook for rain and snow, as well as summer and winter temperatures.

Mr. Manabe took the lead in developing the product after considering the mutual influence of "atmospheric conditions" such as temperature and water vapor conditions and "ocean conditions" such as changes in ocean currents and seawater temperature. It is called the "atmosphere-ocean coupling model" that predicts the future.

When looking at relatively long-term weather such as "Is this winter cold?" Or "Is this rainy season long?", Global ocean conditions affect the atmosphere, and conversely, atmospheric conditions affect the ocean. It is said that it is indispensable even at the site of forecasting by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The Japan Meteorological Agency uses the "atmosphere-ocean combined model" for long-range forecasts such as "three-month forecast" and "cold season forecast" instead of weather forecasts such as "today" and "tomorrow."

For example, a three-month forecast from October to December predicts that the seawater temperature will continue to be lower than normal in the central and eastern waters of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, but eastern winds are blowing. It is said that it is a phenomenon that cannot be predicted without the "atmospheric-ocean coupling model".

Motoaki Takekawa, director of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Extreme Weather Information Center, said, "I want many people to know that the model of Dr. Manabe, which is commonly used in the world of weather forecasting, is closely related to our lives. I am happy to receive the award, and I feel that we must continue to develop the system of the Japan Meteorological Agency, which Professor Manabe laid the foundation for. "