In the battles for Sirte

The real solution to the dispute is in battle. You can talk for a long time and convincingly, but the courage of the fighters puts an end to the debate. So it was in the Second World War, it was so in Korea, and Vietnam, and in the Donbass, where Ilovaisk ended the dispute. Now around the city of Sirte are fighting, which should decide the fate of the conflict between the west and east of Libya. If the west — that is, Tripoli — wins, his troops will continue the offensive on Benghazi. If you fail to take Sirte, there is a chance for peace talks, for the peace that Libya needs.

On the side of Tripoli, the Turkish army and hired Syrian militants are actively participating in the battles. There was a serious danger of the fall of Sirte and an attack on Benghazi. This scenario does not suit the Arabs. Egypt, the neighbor of Libya, the most populated and strongest Arab country, believes that enough to drive a swing from Tripoli to Benghazi, it's time to make peace. And Turkish intervention does not contribute to such a denouement.

Egyptian President al-Sisi contributed a lot to the ceasefire, but the temporary successes of the Tripoli army with the help of the Turks put his efforts in jeopardy. Therefore, he drew a red line on the sand of the desert. We will not allow the fall of Sirte, he said, and, if necessary, the Egyptian army will join the battle on the side of Benghazi. Egyptian F-16 fighters made combat sorties in the Sirte area, accompanied by a refueling aircraft. Tripoli called al-Sisi's containment statement a "declaration of war." Egypt is "ready to cross the Rubicon," they say in Cairo. The Egyptians are supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Arab League is also leaning towards Egypt. 

Libya was once part of the Ottoman Empire, as were Egypt and other Arab countries. But it was a long time before the First World War. With all their sympathy for Turkey, the Arabs do not want the return of Turkish rule to North Africa. So, the offensive on Sirte and Benghazi must be frustrated and the parties brought to the table of peace talks.

Tripoli refused to participate in the meeting of the League of Arab States. The relevant UN structures support Tripoli and indignantly say that Libya is an independent country, not part of Egypt.

Interestingly, the UN did not recall the independence of Libya when the NATO coalition bombed the country, citing a threat looming over Benghazi. Now again the threat looms over Benghazi, but this time the UN sees no harm in this.

Egypt considers it its duty to protect Benghazi - a populated region bordering Egypt (Tobruk is also located there - the location of the Libyan parliament). Cairo took the same position when Colonel Gaddafi was at the head of Tripoli's troops marching to Benghazi. Benghazi is not an easy place: there at one time it ended the American mission, which tried to steer the east of Libya as an occupied territory. The history there is long and complicated since the Second World War, when the British stood there, who fought with Rommel.

In short - Egypt has historical grounds and the right to say its weighty word in determining the fate of Benghazi, and certainly not less than the Turks.

Egypt does not want to throw its troops into the Libyan desert. Al Sisi hopes that Tripoli will change his mind, slow down in front of Sirte and go on negotiations. But this will only happen if Tripoli understands that the country of the pharaohs is not joking. So you need to understand the combat mission of Egyptian fighters. Turkey is a serious military force, but Libya is far from Turkish bases, and Egypt is close. 

Both powers have enough concerns besides Libya. Turkey is now fighting in Iraqi Kurdistan and in Syria. Egypt is in a state of acute conflict with Ethiopia, which threatens to block the Nile and starve the Egyptians to thirst.

President Erdogan is in an active phase, it seems to him that he can dramatically raise the status of Turkey. This includes his actions in Iraq and Syria. In Libya, he hopes to lay his hands on huge oil wealth - both on land and offshore.

President Al-Sisi has a restrained policy: he does not seek adventures, but he does not want to lose his traditional rights either - he is not against Ethiopia, Turkey or Tripoli. He wants to stabilize the Libyan situation before the dispute over the Nile goes into the hot phase.

Russia supports the desire of the Egyptian president to conclude a long-term and lasting truce in Libya. General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army, based in Benghazi, agrees with their position. He shied away from the world for a long time, hoping for a speedy victory, but now that the Turks entered the war, it became clear to him that there would be no victory. Tripoli, where the so-called government of national accord is sitting, must understand this and go into negotiations.

But the US is against reconciliation in Libya. Not then they brought down the established order in this country. Their aircraft actively drive military equipment to Libya from their bases in Germany, and their press chases the legends of thousands of Russian mercenaries fighting on the side of General Haftar. (There would have been thousands of Russian soldiers there, the situation would have been different!) Africa, the command of American troops in Africa, is actively interfering in what is happening. Therefore, the situation in Libya is still far from a denouement and, perhaps, Egyptian aviation will have to work hard to achieve a truce.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.