Zhongxin Finance, June 16. The National Development and Reform Commission held a regular press conference in June on June 16. At the meeting, a reporter asked: What is the main reason for the recent rebound in live pig prices?
How do you view the situation of the pig market in the future?
In this regard, Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, said that pork is the main meat product consumed by Chinese residents, and keeping pork prices within a reasonable range is very important for both the production and consumption of live pigs.
Since June last year, the price of live pigs has continued to run at a low level. In response to this situation, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments have taken multiple measures to promote a reasonable recovery of the price of live pigs.
One is to stabilize market expectations.
We have repeatedly issued early warning information about the excessive drop in the price of pig grains to guide farmers to make scientific arrangements for production and operation decisions in a timely manner according to market conditions, so as to maintain the production capacity of live pigs at a reasonable level.
The second is to guide the orderly reduction of production capacity.
The focus is to consolidate local responsibilities for hierarchical regulation, encourage farm households to eliminate low-yielding sows, and at the same time maintain the stability of supportive policies such as land use and environmental protection, and do not engage in "sharp turns" or "turning sesame cakes" to prevent damage to basic production capacity.
The third is to actively carry out the work of "supporting the market" in purchasing and storing.
According to the provisions of the pork reserve plan, since July last year, a total of 480,000 tons of frozen pork reserves have been listed for purchase and storage at the central level in 14 batches.
Since April this year, the price of live pigs has rebounded by about 30% from the low level, and it has now recovered to near the average cost of live pig farming.
From June 6 to 10, the national average pig-grain price ratio rose to 5.59:1 that week, out of the first-level warning range for excessive decline.
For a period of time in the future, as the basic domestic production capacity of live pigs has been reduced to a certain extent, with the gradual increase in pork consumption in the second half of the year, the price of live pigs is expected to recover in general.
From the perspective of the futures market, the prices of hog contracts expiring in September, November this year and January next year have gradually risen, reflecting the market's expectations for a later price recovery.
However, it should also be noted that the current production capacity of live pigs is reasonably sufficient. At the end of April, the national stock of breeding sows was 41.77 million, which is in the green range of production capacity. It is unlikely that the price of live pigs will rise sharply during the African swine fever period in previous years. The price of pig grains will run within a generally reasonable range.
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