Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, December 11 (Xue Yufei) The epidemic has pressed the pause button on the land market at the beginning of the year, but as the market resumes, the land auction market in major cities has gradually heated up.
Statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that as of December 7, 2020, 11 cities across the country had land sales revenues of more than 100 billion yuan, and 30 cities had more than 50 billion yuan, all setting new historical records.
However, the land market is clearly divided.
According to data from the Zhongzhi Institute, in the first 11 months of this year, the total amount of land transfer in 300 cities nationwide was 438.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
In addition, while land transfer fees in first-tier cities have increased, second-tier cities have declined significantly.
11 cities with land income exceeding 100 billion, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Guangzhou are among the top
Data map: sand table.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
The land market in 2020 can be described as twists and turns.
At the beginning of the epidemic, land market transactions were affected, and then many cities introduced policies such as delaying the payment of land transfer fees, injecting confidence into the market.
Since the second quarter, land transactions have gradually recovered, and real estate companies have increased their enthusiasm for land acquisition.
The land market in some hot cities is active.
Statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that as of December 7, 2020, the land sales income of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou exceeded 200 billion yuan, about
277.3 billion yuan, 256.4 billion yuan, 224.9 billion yuan, and the eight cities of Nanjing, Beijing, Wuhan, Ningbo, Foshan, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing’s land sales revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan.
In terms of growth rate, among the 11 cities with land sales revenue of more than 100 billion yuan, except for Wuhan and Suzhou, which have slightly decreased year-on-year, the land sales revenue of the remaining cities are higher than the same period in 2019.
According to the research center, 11 cities have land sales revenue of more than 100 billion yuan, and 30 cities have land sales revenue of more than 50 billion yuan, breaking historical records.
On the whole, the impact of the epidemic on the land market has gradually passed. This year, many cities have experienced blowouts, and the land market turnover has continued to rise.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, analyzed the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Under the situation of relatively loose funds, real estate companies have become more enthusiastic about acquiring land, and many land parcels with high premium rates have appeared again.
At the same time, with the gradual increase in market concentration, developers are pursuing an increase in their own scale, especially companies that have acquired less land in recent years have also begun to actively acquire land in order to seek a higher position in the industry.
First-tier cities land transfer fees increase second-tier cities fatigue
It is worth noting that the performance of hot cities is not completely consistent with the overall trend of the country.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, from January to November 2020, the total amount of land transfer funds in 300 cities across the country was 438.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
In terms of city categories, the Zhongzhi Research Institute said that in November, a total of 2.75 million square meters of land was sold in the four first-tier cities, an increase of 7% from the previous month and a decrease of 20% from the same period last year; 39%; the average transaction floor price was 10327 yuan/square meter, an increase of 29% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 59%; the average land premium rate was 12%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 8 percentage points from the same period last year.
According to data from the E-House Research Institute, from January to November this year, the cumulative construction area of first-tier cities increased by 42% year-on-year.
Shen Xin, a researcher at the E-House Research Institute, said that the area of transactions in first-tier cities increased sharply from the previous month, mainly because the area of land transactions in Shenzhen reached 2.46 million square meters in November, far exceeding other months of this year.
On November 23, Shenzhen concentrated on the sale of 8 residential land, located in Bao'an District, Guangming District, Longhua District, and Pingshan District. The total construction area was 2,420,800 square meters, and the single day collected 33.981 billion yuan.
He also said: "Although the transaction area in the first-tier cities has increased significantly this year, the prices have not risen significantly, and the overall land market has not overheated."
The trend of third- and fourth-tier cities is roughly the same as that of first-tier cities.
According to the China Index Research Institute, the overall supply of land in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased year-on-year, the total amount of money collected has increased by more than half year-on-year, and the average floor price has increased by nearly 30% year-on-year.
Second-tier cities are relatively weak, and the gold ring ratio of land sales in November has shrunk by nearly 40%.
According to the China Index Research Institute, in November, the transaction area of land in second-tier cities was 23.84 million square meters, a decrease of 47% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 13%; land transfer fees were 147.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 39% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 20%; average transaction floor price was 3064 Yuan/square meter, an increase of 11% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 11%.
Shen Xin told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that in the second quarter of this year, the land market in Hangzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Chengdu and other hot cities was hot, and the average transaction price rebounded rapidly. By the third quarter, the property market control policies in many cities were tightened and the land market gradually As the temperature drops, land prices begin to consolidate at a high level; entering the fourth quarter, the average transaction price has begun to fall from a high level.
Under the tightening of policies, it is expected that land prices in second-tier cities may continue to fall in the coming months.
Analysis: The land market may be steady, but the price increase will slow down
Regarding the future changes in the land market, Shen Xin said that starting from August, the land market in major cities had a short-term turning point, and in September it continued to cool slightly, and the goal of stabilizing land prices has been achieved.
In the short term, neither the regulatory policy nor the monetary policy will be relaxed. It is expected that the land market will remain stable and decline in the next few months.
In terms of residential land, the Shell Research Institute pointed out that from January to November 2020 (as of November 25), the cumulative transaction floor price of residential land in 351 cities across the country increased by 14.6% year-on-year, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The increase in transaction prices was suppressed and market expectations were called back.
It is expected that under the policy goal of stabilizing land prices, the accumulated transaction floor prices during the year will continue to stabilize with a decline.
As for the trend of housing prices, Zhang Dawei analyzed that as the market heats up, the policy orientation has changed significantly from July. In August, many cities introduced tightening policies and continued until September and October. Controlling market overheating has become a new feature of regulatory policies.
Looking at the overall trend, more and more tightening control policies are expected to stabilize the market, and the housing price growth at the end of the year will continue to slow down.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, said that in the future, the overall heat of the real estate market will cool down, but first, the transaction volume of second-hand housing may reach or exceed the level of the same period in 2019.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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