Paper towel prices in many places have risen, generally by 200 yuan/ton
Why do tissues go up and up?
Because the price of raw materials has risen, the actual supply and demand have not changed much
Since December 2020, the price hike of household paper has continued to spread.
Enterprises in Shaanxi, Hebei, Shanxi, Zhejiang and other places have successively issued price increase letters, generally raising the price by 200 yuan/ton.
Enterprises in Guangxi, the main producer of bagasse pulp and household paper, ushered in three consecutive increases in one month, and mixed pulp and finished paper generally rose by 100-200 yuan/ton.
The company also mentioned in particular: Canceling oral orders, the order is the same as the payment, and advance payment is not accepted.
A number of interviewed paper companies stated to the Red Star Capital Bureau that the main reason for the price increase was the increase in the price of wood pulp and other paper-making raw materials.
In addition, in the first half of 2020, paper prices have fallen sharply and are lower than the normal market level. The current price increase also has a callback factor, and it is expected that there is still room for price increase.
Some paper companies said that after prices continue to rise, paper companies are still not profitable.
Why did the ex-factory price of tissue paper rise?
Is the price hike sustainable?
Will the terminal market price be greatly affected?
The Red Star Capital Bureau investigated this.
Why do paper towels increase in price?
As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative increase of finished paper in the second half of 2020 reached 800-1000 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price rose from the lowest 5500-5700 yuan/ton to nearly 7000 yuan/ton.
The ex-factory prices of Vinda, Qingfeng, and Xiangyin have reached 12,500 yuan/ton.
Paper Enterprise
After the vicious competition of Hebei paper companies
Stimulated by raw material price increases to negotiate price increases
The raw materials of household paper pulp generally include wood pulp, cotton pulp, bamboo pulp, sugarcane pulp and other straw pulps, among which wood pulp accounts for up to 82%, and with the high-end household paper, there is still room for improvement. .
The output of tissue paper in Baoding, Hebei accounts for nearly 30% of the national market.
The paper companies here mainly use wood pulp as raw materials for papermaking, including imported wood pulp and domestic wood pulp.
A person in charge of a paper company in Baoding told the Red Star Capital Bureau that in recent years, the price of paper has been basically only affected by the price of raw materials.
The price increase of household paper is mainly due to the price increase of raw materials.
Since 2020, Hebei paper companies have raised prices three times, and individual companies have raised prices four times.
As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative increase of finished paper in the second half of 2020 reached 800-1000 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price rose from the lowest 5500-5700 yuan/ton to nearly 7000 yuan/ton.
The ex-factory prices of Vinda, Qingfeng, and Xiangyin have reached 12,500 yuan/ton.
But he believes that this price has not yet reached the level of the same period in previous years, and there is room for price increases.
According to reports, the current price of pulp board raw materials has risen to 5,900 yuan/ton, which was only 4,000 yuan/ton in previous years. With other raw materials and processing fees of more than 1,000 yuan, Hebei paper companies are still not profitable.
A relevant person in charge of a sanitary products company in Baoding told the Red Star Capital Bureau that although there are many paper companies in Hebei, it lacks leading companies and coordinated industry associations. "The price war is famous throughout the country!"
"In 2008, the market price of finished paper in Hebei exceeded 10,000 yuan per ton. At that time, the production capacity was low and the paper companies in other regions stopped production. The supply of Hebei paper was in short supply. However, with the rapid increase in production capacity, the competition among paper companies was fierce, especially in the first half of 2020. It’s not so low, and individual manufacturers do not hesitate to lose money. Now the price increases, there are some callback factors."
He said that after the vicious competition in the first half of 2020, the previous stocks of raw materials were exhausted. In the face of the rising price of raw materials, large and small private paper companies in Hebei finally sat down and negotiated price increases.
raw material
Important raw material for papermaking
Sugarcane pulp, wood pulp, bamboo pulp are rising
The second largest raw material for household paper is bamboo pulp, which accounts for 10% of the raw material structure.
In addition, bagasse pulp is also very suitable for the manufacture of household paper, especially in Guangxi, a big sugar province, as a companion of sucrose, and an important raw material for local pulping and papermaking.
The relevant person in charge of a sugar company in Guangxi told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the price increase of Guangxi paper companies was also due to the price increase of raw materials.
In addition to the price increase of household paper, bagasse pulp is also increasing in price.
Papermaking with bagasse pulp is a major feature of Guangxi.
Bagasse is made into pulp after cooking, washing, screening, bleaching and other processes, and the pulp is beaten, pressed, dried, calendered, coiled, and rewinded to make sanitary base paper.
Compared with wood pulp and cotton pulp, sugarcane pulp has the disadvantage of lower wet strength, so in production, many paper companies will mix 5%-30% wood pulp.
The relevant person in charge of a paper company in Guangxi told the Red Star Capital Bureau that at this time, the old pulp was used up and the new pulp was not coming out.
At the end of November each year, the southern cane sugar factories start production one after another, which is the so-called "squeezing season."
Bagasse needs more than one month of fermentation, cooking, washing, screening, bleaching and other processes before it is made into pulp.
The bagasse used for pulping each year comes from sugarcane harvested the previous year.
She said that the prices of bagasse and wet bagasse pulp have been rising in the past two months, and it is expected that it will continue until March 2021 when the supply of bagasse new pulp is stable before the price will fall.
"It's almost the same every year. It's just that the price has been reduced in the first half of 2020, and now it has risen back to a larger extent. But the current price has not yet risen to the level of the same period in previous years.
The Guangxi paper companies interviewed are all extended industrial chains of sugar companies and have not purchased bagasse.
However, she believes that the production of bagasse will not change much compared to last year.
"The start time of squeezing is the same as in previous years, and the planting area of sugarcane has increased a bit. The impact of the favorable policies introduced in Guangxi this year will not be reflected until next year."
Geng Sai, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told the Red Star Capital Bureau that starting from October 2020, the shortage of raw materials in the sugarcane pulp market has become prominent, coupled with poor downstream demand, and the pulp mill's operating load is low.
In October and November of 2021, the operating load remained at 41%. The bagasse stocking season began at the end of November, and the operation of the pulp mill started to improve. However, the price of bagasse, the raw material for sugarcane pulp, rose by 20% compared with last year. The cost pressure of the pulp mill increased, and imported wood pulp was added. Driven by price increases, the price of sugarcane pulp wet pulp was raised by 100-200 yuan/ton in late December, and the price of pulp board was raised by 100-300 yuan/ton.
In addition, paper companies that use bamboo pulp as raw materials have also issued price increases.
The relevant person in charge of a certain natural paper production enterprise in Sichuan told the Red Star Capital Bureau that not only wood pulp is rising, but bamboo pulp is also rising.
Geng Sai pointed out that in November 2020, bamboo pulp manufacturers will focus on maintenance, and the monthly start load is 41%, down 6 percentage points from October. Pulp mill inventories have fallen. This month, pulp mill inventories are not under pressure, and the cost of raw bamboo chips and imports will increase. The price of wood pulp continues to rise, and bamboo pulp manufacturers increase the disk surface by 200-400 yuan/ton.
What is the logic behind the price increase?
Chang Junting, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that this round of wood pulp price increases focuses on the news, and the actual supply and demand levels have not changed significantly.
She pointed out that the transmission chain of the current round of price increases is: pulp futures drive up the spot price, which in turn drives up the price of wood pulp on the outside.
Futures take spot and then take out disk
The actual supply and demand has not changed, focusing on the news
China is the world's largest importer of virgin pulp.
The interviewed paper companies told the Red Star Capital Bureau that there is a consensus in the industry that the production cost of Chinese pulp companies is higher than the CIF price of imported wood pulp, and there is basically no advantage in the competition with imported pulp.
Take the pulp spot price on December 24, 2020 as an example.
Arauco hardwood pulp star's external disk report rose to 545 US dollars / ton (equivalent to 3555 yuan / ton).
The domestic mainstream market price of hardwood pulp is 4,000 yuan/ton.
Some analysts pointed out that in the third quarter of 2020, under the influence of factors such as pulp mill production reduction, forest fires, and gradual increase in demand, international commodity pulp prices began to gradually rise.
The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season and is expected to support pulp prices.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Chang Junting told the Red Star Capital Bureau that China's wood pulp import dependence is more than 60%, and wood pulp supply mainly depends on imports, followed by domestic wood pulp.
From the perspective of the supply of imported wood pulp, China’s softwood pulp imports fell by 1.44% in the first 11 months of 2020. In the last week of 2020, pulp stocks in major regions and ports were removed from the warehouse within a narrow range; The monthly global shipments of softwood pulp fell by 5.2%, of which the volume shipped to China fell by 9.6%. In the standard calculation method, the inventory days decreased by 1 day compared with the previous month, and the overall supply side was slightly tight.
From the perspective of domestic wood pulp supply, the output of hardwood pulp from January to November 2020 increased by 2.40% year-on-year, and the output of chemical mechanical pulp increased by 11.03% year-on-year. Specifically, by November 2020, the output of hardwood pulp and chemical mechanical pulp The month-on-month decline was 3.78% and 3.29% respectively, and the supply was slightly tightened.
From the demand side, household paper was passively pushed up by the cost side, and under the stimulation of three consecutive rounds of price increases, the raw paper inventory was removed from the warehouse within a narrow range.
In other respects, under the influence of zero imports of waste paper at the end of the year, the shortage of packaging paper raw materials stimulated domestic and foreign pulp mills to switch to natural pulp, which indirectly supported the price of softwood pulp, which in turn increased the pressure on the cost of downstream household paper to a certain extent.
Chang Junting believes that the current round of wood pulp price increases focuses on the news, and the actual supply and demand levels have not changed significantly.
She pointed out that the transmission chain of the current round of price increases is: pulp futures drive up the spot price, which in turn drives up the price of wood pulp on the outside.
On December 24, 2020, pulp futures closed at 5,396 yuan/ton.
On December 25, 2020, pulp futures expanded their gains in the afternoon, rising above RMB 5,600/ton to close at RMB 5,572/ton.
On December 28, 2020, pulp futures closed at 5530 yuan/ton.
On December 29, pulp futures closed at 5472 yuan/ton.
Zheng Wei, an analyst at CCB Futures, said that the vaccination logic and inflation logic have been continuously strengthened, and the medium and long-term demand expectations brought about by the "plastic ban" and "ban on obsolescence" have been superimposed, leading to continuous increases in pulp prices.
In terms of supply, the future production capacity of global chemical pulp will be relatively stable, and the increase in capacity will mainly come from hardwood pulp.
The global shipments of softwood pulp returned to normal levels, and the shipments of hardwood pulp remained at a historical high.
my country's hardwood pulp imports also remain high, while softwood pulp has a potential for future supply increase due to the opening of the arbitrage window in the second half of 2020.
At present, the profit performance of the industry is dazzling, the price center of gravity is constantly moving up, the inventory is in a new state of balance, the bottom of the industry cycle has slowly come out, and the pulp will continue to move forward in the long term.
However, since the demand side has returned to normal levels, the supply side has always been relatively stable, and there is no mismatch in the fundamentals of the supply and demand structure.
In the next stage, we will continue to pay attention to the changes on the supply side and the demand side. The simple chain repair thinking in the early stage will shift to the game between the year-on-year and the chain, and between expectations and reality.
Why don't we feel it?
Relevant persons in Hebei paper company told Red Star Capital Bureau that the production capacity of various manufacturers is very large, the supply exceeds demand, and the warehouse is full.
Even if the factory is shut down during the Spring Festival every year, dealers will stock up on a batch of goods, but the online sales model reduces the dealer’s demand for stocking.
Paper companies in Hebei will not be out of paper when they stop
The inventory is sufficient, the price increase is not obvious
"The offline salesperson estimates that if all the tissue manufacturing companies in Hebei are down, the market will not be out of paper. The inventory of paper mills and distributors, supermarkets, and e-commerce can even support several months." Said.
Although paper companies have issued price increase letters one after another, many consumers said in an interview with the Red Star Capital Bureau that they did not feel a significant increase, and many people had enough all kinds of things they needed for a year on Double Eleven. Household paper.
In supermarkets and e-commerce platforms, you can also frequently see paper rolls and paper rolls for discount promotions.
Industry insiders believe that there are many types of domestic household paper brands and fierce competition, which has restrained the increase in retail prices of domestic household paper to a certain extent.
In addition, the price adjustment notice is sent by the manufacturer to the wholesaler. It takes a process to pass from the wholesaler to the terminal. In addition, many supermarkets have sufficient inventory, so the price of toilet paper on the market is still stable.
Public information shows that at this stage, the market concentration of China's paper industry is relatively low.
From the data point of view, compared with the 51% market concentration in North America, Europe and Japan, the market concentration of China's paper industry is only 31.8%.
Yin Ting, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, explained to the Red Star Capital Bureau that, first of all, household paper inventory can be divided into corporate inventory and circulation field inventory. As far as the production company is concerned, the inventory situation is a fluctuating value, not a constant value. of.
For example, recent market price increase letters have been issued frequently. In order to reduce the cost pressure in the later stage, downstream processing plants should properly stock up at a reasonable price. For paper companies, inventory at this stage is reduced.
Second, the price of household paper is rising, and it is also transmitted ring by ring in the market. Raw paper companies first began to adjust prices. After downstream processing plants, the response of the terminal market (such as supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, etc.) is relatively lagging, and the raw paper Most of the price adjustments are adjusted in units of tons. Even if the terminal increases by the same amount, the increase in the finished paper of each retail unit is not obvious, and there are still irregular promotions in some markets. The price increase in December 2020 In the momentum, terminal demand did not significantly boost.
Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo