China News Service, Xiamen, March 31 (Reporter Yang Fushan) "China Macroeconomic Forecast and Analysis-2024 Spring Report" was released in Xiamen on the 30th. This is the 36th release of CQMM forecast and policy simulation results.
On the same day, the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University held a press conference on the "China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM) 2024 Spring Forecast". While releasing the above report, it also released the "2024 China Macroeconomic Situation and Policy Questionnaire" from hundreds of economists. "investigation" results.
The report believes that in 2023, the main contribution to China's economic growth will come from final consumption. The main difficulties are the decline in the growth rate of total capital formation caused by the continued decline of real estate investment and the contraction of foreign trade in goods caused by sluggish external demand. This differential change in the aggregate demand structure is reflected at the industrial level as the primary and secondary industries grow relatively slowly, while the tertiary industry becomes the main driving force for economic growth.
In particular, thanks to the rapid rebound in tourism, business, and exhibition and sales activities, the growth rate of the added value of the transportation, warehousing, and postal industries has recovered strongly, but the negative growth trend of the real estate industry continues.
Looking forward to the economic growth prospects in 2024, the report believes that the foundation for sustained consumption growth is not yet solid, residents' income growth expectations are uncertain, residents' consumption tends to be "small" and "fragmented", and the continued adjustment of the real estate market will restrict the continued growth of final consumption. increase.
According to the report, investment growth is expected. The recent recovery of industrial production activities means that the momentum of recovery in profits of industrial companies is still there, which is expected to continue to drive the growth of manufacturing investment and accelerate the industrial added value. The combination of proactive fiscal expenditures and fiscal policy tools such as special bonds, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and tax incentives will also have an increasing effect on investment in infrastructure construction focusing on urban and rural communities, agriculture, forestry, and water affairs, and transportation.
In addition, the rapid promotion of new productivity and "artificial intelligence +" actions may further stimulate the rapid increase in investment in emerging industries characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality.
The report believes that compared with domestic demand, how to stimulate external demand and stabilize foreign trade, especially export growth, may be a greater challenge that China's economy needs to face in 2024.
In the past year, the slowdown in the growth rate of China's exports of goods has been overall. The growth rates of exports of foreign goods to the four major regional markets have all declined significantly. The decline in export growth is more likely to be caused by weakening global consumer demand.
In 2024, with the gradual withdrawal of loose policies in major developed countries, the economic growth of developed economies is more likely to weaken. Under the superposition of many unfavorable factors, the pressure on China's foreign trade, especially export growth, will double. (over)