China News Service, March 29, according to the China Logistics Information Center website, from January to February 2024, logistics demand recovered amid fluctuations, the overall market size maintained expansion, and supply capacity grew resiliently. However, micro entities still face problems such as weak order demand, rising operating costs, and intensified market competition.
1. Logistics demand continues to recover, and advantageous areas undergoing transformation and upgrading are experiencing good growth.
From January to February, my country's total social logistics volume was 55.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% based on comparable prices. From the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate from January to February was 3.0 and 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year and the whole year last year, indicating that the current logistics operation as a whole continues to stabilize and recover, and the scale of logistics demand is steadily expanding. However, it should also be noted that the base period level in the same period last year was relatively low, and the overall total social logistics volume was still gradually recovering. From a structural perspective, industrial product logistics shows a steady recovery trend, imported international logistics and unit and household consumption logistics continue to grow rapidly, and renewable resource logistics remains basically stable. The current logistics demand presents some new highlights:
First, the recovery in demand for industrial product logistics has a solid foundation. From January to February, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 5.3% year-on-year, still maintaining a steady recovery trend. From the perspective of industrial production, driven by factors such as the rebound in exports, more than 60% of industrial product output has increased, laying a good foundation for the overall stable and rapid recovery of logistics demand.
Second, new business formats have driven an accelerated recovery in the demand for logistics for people’s livelihood consumption. From January to February, the total logistics volume of items for units and residents increased by 14.0% year-on-year. Among them, with the continuous advancement of new models such as instant delivery, live broadcast e-commerce, and check-in travel, areas such as ice and snow equipment, fresh specialties, outdoor entertainment, and national fashion brands have become hot spots for people's livelihood consumption, driving the accelerated recovery of online e-commerce logistics demand. From January to February, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 14.4% year-on-year, 6 percentage points faster than the previous year; express delivery business volume exceeded 23 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, 9.1 percentage points faster than the previous year.
Third, the demand for production expansion has driven the scale of import logistics to maintain rapid expansion. From January to February, the total import logistics volume increased by 8.7% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Production resumes. Driven by this, the demand for bulk commodity import logistics has increased, and the import logistics volume of most categories has increased year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of import logistics flows of iron ore and its concentrates, crude oil, coal and lignite were 8.1%, 5.1% and 22.9% respectively. In terms of agricultural products, grain, dried and fresh fruits and nuts increased by 7.7% and 18.9% year-on-year.
Fourth, logistics demand in advantageous areas undergoing transformation and upgrading is growing steadily. Driven by factors such as the rebound in exports, dominant industries and new drivers continued the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of 2023 from January to February. Among them, logistics demand in intelligent fields such as semiconductor device special equipment and integrated circuits increased by more than 20%; new Logistics demand in energy vehicles and related green and low-carbon fields has grown by more than 25%; low-altitude logistics demand such as intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing has grown by more than 18%, indicating that the logistics demand in high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality industries continues to develop.
2. The resumption of work and production after the holiday is steadily advancing, and logistics supply and demand are basically adapted.
From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Although the growth rate slowed down slightly year-on-year, the scale of my country's logistics market is still relatively large, and the total revenue of the logistics industry is still achieving resilient growth at the beginning of this year. The transformation and upgrading and structural differentiation of various subdivisions have accelerated. Specifically, the logistics industry presents the following characteristics:
First, logistics supply as a whole maintained resilient growth. From January to February, the average business volume index and equipment utilization index in the logistics industry prosperity index were slightly higher than the same period last year, indicating that despite the impact of factors such as the off-season and weather, the overall resilience and quality of logistics services have improved. In particular, the logistics service structure has been further enriched and optimized, and areas such as railway transportation and postal express delivery have maintained expanded ranges, which has improved logistics efficiency while effectively supporting the supply of energy raw materials and the stable and smooth flow of people's livelihood consumption logistics.
Second, the logistics support role of new business formats has been enhanced. From January to February, new business formats such as aviation logistics and e-commerce logistics were developing well. Aviation logistics is "not slow in the off-season", and efficient logistics services have achieved rapid growth. In February, cargo and mail transportation volume increased by 20.8% year-on-year. Especially driven by cross-border logistics and other factors, the scale of international freight increased by 21.3% year-on-year. The operation of e-commerce logistics is stable and improving, and rural logistics support capabilities have been enhanced. From January to February, the average value of China’s e-commerce logistics index was 112.1 points, rising to the highest level in recent years. The ability of e-commerce logistics to adapt to the market continues to strengthen. The inventory turnover rate index, personnel index, and load rate index have all risen to high levels in recent years. During the Spring Festival, supply service capabilities and quality remain at a good level. Among them, the rural e-commerce business volume index averaged 126.7 points from January to February, the highest average in the past five years. As rural consumption and agricultural product e-commerce logistics continue to heat up, rural logistics support capabilities are also increasing simultaneously.
Third, the warehousing and logistics turnover of the industrial chain has slowed down. From January to February, warehousing and logistics turnover efficiency was stable and slowing down, with the average inventory turnover index being 47%. Affected by factors such as the slowdown in international shipping efficiency and increased instability in international trade, the willingness to stock up on bulk commodities, intermediate goods and other production areas has increased, average inventory has maintained a slight increase, and the industrial chain cycle is still in a steady recovery period.
Fourth, logistics service prices have moderated and stabilized. From January to February, logistics supply and demand resumed adjustment amid fluctuations, with enhanced adaptability. The oversupply situation in some areas showed signs of improvement, and the overall price level slowed down and stabilized. In terms of international water transport, affected by factors such as tightening supply and demand in some international regions, container freight rates have rebounded significantly. The average value of China's comprehensive export container freight index in February was 1,440.74 points, an increase of 20.9% from the previous month; the average value of the Shanghai export container comprehensive index was 2,164.65 points, an increase of 1.6% from the previous month. In terms of coastal bulk cargo, the demand for coal and other major cargo categories is weak, and the price index is under pressure to decline. The average coastal (bulk cargo) comprehensive freight index in February was 961.66 points, down 7.4% from the previous month, but the decline was somewhat limited. narrow.
Fifth, the operating pressure of logistics micro-entities has not been significantly relieved for the time being. The survey in the first two months shows that current logistics companies report that problems such as fierce competition in the industry, insufficient order demand, and rising costs are still prominent. Key survey data show that from January to February, the logistics business revenue of key logistics companies fell by 2.7% year-on-year. The business profit index in the logistics industry prosperity index and warehousing index is both at a low level below 50%, and the profit pressure on companies in the industry is still high.
Taken together, logistics operations started off smoothly in the first two months of this year, the adaptability of supply and demand has been enhanced, and the quality of logistics supply has continued to improve. However, there are still uncertainties in the international supply chain, coupled with the impact of the domestic Spring Festival holiday, the scale level and cycle efficiency of the industrial chain logistics have yet to be further restored. Judging from the later trend, the business activity expectation index in February was 54.8%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that logistics companies have increased confidence in the market outlook. In addition, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission at the beginning of the year and the "Government Work Report" once again emphasized the importance of logistics. nature, it has been repeatedly proposed to effectively reduce the logistics costs of the whole society, emphasizing structural adjustment and promoting reform, which will help to better stimulate the vitality of logistics market entities, supply chain integrated logistics, multimodal transport, smart intelligent logistics and other innovative services The model will usher in development opportunities.