Efe

Updated Thursday, March 28, 2024-1:32 p.m.

  • Frankfurt The internal tug-of-war at the ECB: the 'doves' press to accelerate a rate cut against the conservatives who ask for more time and data

The 12-month

Euribor

, the indicator most used in Spain to calculate variable mortgages, will close March on the rise again, around

3.72%

, which will mean a slight increase in the fee for those who review their loan annually, although It will entail relief for mortgage holders who do so semi-annually.

The 12-month Euribor stands on average at 3.72% in March, with data from a couple of sessions missing before the end of the month, and shows a new increase after having risen in February to 3.671 %.

A year ago, the Euribor was on average at 3.647%, so those who review their mortgage annually

will see their fee increase

; However, six months ago, in September, this indicator was at an average rate of 4.149%, so if the mortgagee reviews their payment every six months they will see some relief.

The Euribor will end March at its

highest level since November

, when it stood at an average rate of 4.022%, which was subsequently reduced in December to 3.679% and in January of this year it fell to 3.609%.

Analysts point out that the tougher speech of the European Central Bank (ECB)

has weighed down the declines in this indicator

, which seemed to have discounted at the end of last year the possible rate cuts, which have not yet occurred and which the market anticipates will They can arrive in June.

The rise in mortgage payments

The rise in the Euribor in March will mean

an increase in the fee for mortgage holders who annually review

their variable rate loans referenced to the Euribor.

Thus, for a mortgage of 150,000 euros with a repayment period of 25 years and with an interest rate of Euribor plus 1%, the installments will become 852.59 euros per month, compared to 846.31 euros a year ago. .

This represents an increase of 6.28 euros per month, which in the annual calculation amounts to 75.36 euros more.

In the case of having a semi-annual review, the mortgaged party will see his payment reduced, since in September 2023 the Euribor stood at 4.149%.

In that month, the monthly payment of a mortgage of 150,000 euros for 25 years and with an interest of Euribor plus 1% amounted to 889.96 euros per month. Therefore, if it is reviewed every six months, this will be reduced by 37.37 euros; which represents an annual decrease of 448.44 euros.

The forecast of the experts

"For the coming months, at HelpMyCash we consider that the most likely thing is that the Euribor will remain relatively stable around 3.6% or that it will trend slightly downward until June, the date on which the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to ) reduce your interest rates," says Miquel Riera, mortgage expert at the financial comparator.

The expert adds that, subsequently, it is likely that there will be

a somewhat more pronounced drop,

which could place the Euribor below 3.5% during the second half of the year.

For his part, Manuel Pinto, an

analyst at

interest

of the central banks, which at the moment even seem distant.

"It seems that they have delayed interest rate decisions until June, and this slightly more aggressive message from the central banks has pushed up the behavior of the Euribor," says the expert.

Pinto highlights that

the ECB is in a dilemma

between the economic slowdown and the fight against inflation, to which are added the uncertainties about this in the geopolitical field, such as the conflict in Ukraine or the upcoming elections in the United States.

For their part, experts at the financial technology company Ebury expect a lateral movement of the Euribor of around 3.7% in the short term, with small rises and falls.

In the longer term, if current market expectations are met, which seem realistic to them, Ebury experts see that the Euribor could begin to fall significantly from June and they expect it to be in the range of 3 % and 3.5% at the end of 2024.