From January to February, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 6.7% year-on-year, completing 15.3% of the full-year budget. "The expenditure progress is the fastest in the same period in the past five years. Among them, expenditures in social security and employment, education, urban and rural communities, agriculture, forestry, water, transportation and other fields have grown rapidly, and expenditures on key projects have been effectively guaranteed." From January to February, my country's private sector Investment accounted for 52.6% of the overall investment, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over last year. Private investment increased by 0.4%. "Reversing the negative growth situation since the first five months of last year."
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This year, more than 6 trillion yuan of funds will be used to expand effective investment, sending a positive signal to open up space for stable growth.
At a recent press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced that from the additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds issued last year to 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds this year, the central budget has invested 700 billion yuan and 3.9 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, "the total scale of funds in several aspects exceeds 6 trillion yuan." He said that improving the efficiency of government investment and giving full play to the leading role of government investment in the investment of the whole society is the key to this year's investment work , is also the key point.
In this year's government work report, actively expanding effective investment is an important part of "focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting the economy to achieve a virtuous cycle." The report mentions that we should give full play to the amplification effect of government investment, focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, strengthen people's livelihood and other economic and social weak areas to make up for shortcomings, promote the construction of flood control, drainage and disaster relief infrastructure, and promote various types of Update and technological transformation of production equipment and service equipment, and accelerate the implementation of major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
Focus on key areas such as technological innovation
One of the signals that the proactive fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened and improve quality and efficiency is the plan to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds for several consecutive years starting from this year.
"This is conducive to expanding aggregate demand, optimizing the supply structure, improving economic operation efficiency, and increasing China's potential economic growth rate. At the same time, the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds optimizes the debt structure and reduces debt risks." Chief Economist and Researcher of Guangdong Securities Luo Zhiheng, president of the institute, analyzed that the cost of central government bond issuance is lower and the cycle is longer than that of local governments. Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds form high-quality assets. More importantly, they avoid risks caused by local governments increasing leverage and free up local finances. space.
As for the areas supported by this year's 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special national debt, Liu Sushe introduced at the above press conference that it will focus on key areas such as technological innovation, urban-rural integrated development, coordinated regional development, food and energy resource security, and high-quality population development. "The overall consideration is to coordinate 'hard investment' and 'soft construction', concentrate on solving some major issues in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, and lay a solid foundation for achieving the second centenary goal as scheduled." Liu Sushe said, At present, the National Development and Reform Commission is working with relevant parties to promote the introduction and implementation of relevant supporting policies and measures, break down deep-seated obstacles through institutional and mechanism reforms, and form synergy with the construction of major projects to ensure high-quality implementation of various tasks.
He also introduced the implementation of the additional trillions of national debt issuance last year. In terms of support areas, more than half of the 1 trillion yuan in additional government bonds will be used for the construction of flood control and drainage and other related water conservancy facilities, more than 200 billion yuan will be used for post-disaster reconstruction in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other places, and the remaining funds will be mainly used to improve natural disaster emergency response capabilities. , as well as the construction of comprehensive prevention and control systems such as forest fires.
"In February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a list of 1 trillion yuan of additional government bond issuance projects in three batches, and all the additional government bond issuance funds have been allocated to 15,000 specific projects." Liu Sushe said that the National Development and Reform Commission has established an additional government bond issuance project. Scheduling mechanism to comprehensively schedule project progress. At present, the project operation rates in Beijing and Hebei Province have reached 48% and 45% respectively. "We will urge local governments to speed up work progress and carry out on-the-spot supervision with relevant departments to promote the start of all these projects in the first half of this year and create more physical workload during the year. In particular, we will urge some post-disaster reconstruction projects to be completed and put into use before this year's flood season. .”
He specifically mentioned that project construction in the above-mentioned fields will objectively promote the steady growth of infrastructure investment.
Data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to February, infrastructure investment increased by 6.3%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points faster than last year. Among them, investment in the water conservancy management industry increased by 13.7%, and investment in the railway and road transportation industries increased by 27% and 8.3% respectively. "The benefits of policies such as the additional issuance of national bonds in 2023 are gradually emerging." Liu Sushe said.
Calculation data from the macro analysis team of Huachuang Securities Research Institute also shows that the growth rate of public fiscal expenditures remained high at the beginning of this year, and three representative livelihood expenditures (social security employment, health, and education) drove the expenditure growth by 0.8 from January to February. percentage points, infrastructure expenditures (urban and rural communities, transportation, agriculture, forestry and water) totaled 3.3 percentage points in expenditure growth, mainly in urban and rural communities and agriculture, forestry and water areas, which were supported by the issuance of additional government bonds, totaling 3.1 percentage points. A new high for the same period in the past five years."
Make full use of fiscal space
"Judging from the 2024 fiscal budget data, the central government is already actively leveraging, optimizing the debt structure, and freeing up fiscal space for local governments. The deficit in 2024 will be 4.06 trillion yuan, with the central government's deficit accounting for 82.3%. In addition, There are 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds. It can be seen from these data that the central government is actively increasing leverage and making full use of fiscal space." In Luo Zhiheng's view, in addition to the central government having more fiscal space, local governments The fiscal space lies in the eastern regions with population inflow and better industrial support. “They have a good project reserve base and can make better use of debt.”
Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min also said at the above-mentioned press conference that macro-control requires the organic combination and joint action of multiple tools. From the perspective of fiscal policy, this year is to implement the work requirements of “appropriate strengthening, improving quality and efficiency” proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference and the National Two Sessions. “Moderate strengthening” is not only reflected in the deficit policy, but also includes special debt, ultra-long-term Special treasury bonds, tax incentives and other policy tools. "These policies will provide necessary and strong support to achieve this year's economic and social development goals."
He described the fiscal expenditure situation in the first two months of this year as "strengthening efforts and accelerating progress." Data from the Ministry of Finance show that from January to February, national general public budget expenditures increased by 6.7% year-on-year, completing 15.3% of the full-year budget. "The expenditure progress is the fastest in the same period in the past five years. Among them, expenditures in social security and employment, education, urban and rural communities, agriculture, forestry, water, transportation and other fields have grown rapidly, and expenditures on key projects have been effectively guaranteed." Liao Min said that fiscal expenditures have both There is a total effect, but also a structural effect. "We believe this will have a positive effect on promoting macroeconomic recovery, promoting economic structural adjustment, and driving social capital investment."
He also shared the good news that in the past few months, overseas investors have increased their holdings of Chinese government bonds for many consecutive months. "Chinese government bonds have become one of the best-performing government bonds in Asia."
Liao Min also responded to the question of how to balance stable growth and maintain fiscal sustainability. He said that the financial department has always insisted on coordinating the stabilization of growth and preventing risks, balancing needs and possibilities, scientifically and rationally arranging deficit levels and government debt levels to ensure mid- and long-term fiscal sustainability. "In the past few years, even during the epidemic, our deficit rate has remained relatively stable. Among major economies, this is one of our more prominent features. The deficit rate in 2024 is set at 3%, which also takes into account various factors. Liao Min said that overall, my country's government debt level is moderate, which "not only meets the objective needs of promoting economic stability and improvement, but also is conducive to achieving medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability."
Stimulate the vitality of private investment
It is worth noting that as an important part of expanding effective investment, private investment has improved recently. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to February, my country's private investment accounted for 52.6% of overall investment, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from last year. Private investment increased by 0.4%.
"This has reversed the negative growth situation since the first five months of last year." Liu Sushe analyzed that private investment is a very important foundation for the development of the private economy and is also a "barometer" of the activity of the private economy. With the implementation of a series of policy measures, such as the introduction of 17 measures to promote private investment and the establishment of a new mechanism for cooperation between government and social capital, the growth rate of private investment across the country gradually stabilized in the last few months of last year. From January to February this year, private investment The growth rate has turned from negative to positive, "it can be said that it shows a good development trend."
The private capital promotion project platform shows that as of February 29, a total of 1,612 projects have attracted private capital participation, with a total investment scale of more than 2 trillion yuan.
Regarding the next steps, Liu Sushe said that by improving the institutional environment, expanding investment space, and strengthening factor protection, private enterprises will be able to "invest with confidence", "invest with what they have" and "invest well".
In terms of expanding investment space, he once again mentioned promoting local governments and related industries to implement new mechanisms for government and social capital cooperation. Compared with the previous government and social capital cooperation (PPP) model that has been implemented for many years, the "Guiding Opinions on Standardizing the Implementation of the New Mechanism for Government and Social Capital Cooperation" issued in November last year clarified the characteristics of the new mechanism in many aspects, such as focusing on the use of For investor-pay projects, private enterprises will be given priority to participate, and all will adopt a franchise model.
Industry insiders believe that the new mechanism focuses on user-pay projects, requires that project operating income can cover construction investment and operating costs, and has a certain return on investment, so as to prevent new local hidden debts from the source.
The "List of New Franchise Projects (Including Renovation and Expansion) to Support the Participation of Private Enterprises (2023 Edition)" was also released for the first time, which supports private enterprises to participate in the construction and operation of multi-field projects according to the attributes of industry fields and the characteristics of new projects. In order to fairly select franchisees, the new mechanism also clearly regards the project operation plan, unit price, and franchise period as important evaluation criteria for selecting franchisees.
"With the implementation of a series of policies to promote the development of the private economy and improve the business environment, private investment is also undergoing structural transformation." Zou Yunhan, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Division of the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center, noted that in addition to steady growth in private investment In addition to having space and potential, there are also bright spots in structural changes.
She told reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that first, the private manufacturing investment field is shifting from traditional industries to mid-to-high-end industries, especially for special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, instrumentation manufacturing, and communication equipment, The proportion of investment in high-tech industries such as computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing will further increase; secondly, the degree of diversification of investment in the private tertiary industry will further increase. “The investment focus will accelerate from living services to producer services, and real estate will The proportion of investment will further decline.”
China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Zhu Caiyun trainee reporter Dana Source: China Youth Daily