The analyst notes that the tax period begins in Russia next trading week and the peak of tax payments in 2024 falls on the 28th of each month.
“Exporters are starting to convert foreign currency earnings into rubles on the stock exchange to pay taxes in advance. World oil prices rose by about 5% in March, due to which the revenue of oil exporters from Russia also increased. Against this background, already at the beginning of the next trading week, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange may come under pressure and within a week drop to the area of 90-91 rubles,” he said.
Chernov also noted that if the key refinancing rate in Russia is left at 16% per annum, then “the ruble exchange rate will remain the same and we should focus on the tax period next week.”
Earlier, economist and director of communications at BitRiver Andrei Loboda predicted the dollar exchange rate to be between 89 and 92.5 rubles.