Reporter Ji Wenhui
In just one year, lithium prices have been on a roller coaster ride.
After rising to a maximum of 600,000 yuan per ton, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to a minimum of below 100,000 yuan last year.
Since March this year, prices have risen slightly and are currently hovering at 110,000 yuan per ton.
Lithium price fluctuations have caused market concerns.
The new energy automobile industry is advancing rapidly, which once drove the price of new energy minerals represented by lithium to soar.
Now that the growth of new energy vehicles has stabilized, what is the prospect of the new energy mining market?
In this regard, reporters launched an investigation.
There is still room in the market
"This is a future-oriented competition, and the new energy mining market is still in a period of accelerated growth." Zhu Qing, chief researcher of the mining market at the International Mining Research Center of the China Geological Survey, told reporters that in the short term, the phased mismatch of supply and demand has led to lithium mines The market is volatile. Because the mining speed of upstream lithium mines was temporarily unable to meet the large demand for downstream production and manufacturing, price fluctuations were relatively violent.
However, as the supply and demand structure continues to be optimized and adjusted, under the background of energy transformation, there is still broad room for strategic emerging mineral resources represented by lithium.
The global carbon neutrality process continues to advance, and the demand for key metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel involved in green energy has increased significantly.
The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2040, the proportion of mineral resources required for clean energy will account for 40% to 90% of the total demand for mineral resources, and the amount of mineral resources required for batteries will increase 33 times, among which nickel, cobalt, The demand for manganese will increase by 140 times, 70 times and 58 times respectively.
Strong demand has attracted multiple investments into the exploration and development of new energy minerals, and a large number of development opportunities have emerged.
"In the past, traditional resource competition was mainly concentrated in the fields of fossil energy and bulk solid minerals. In the future, resource competition will be more concentrated in strategic emerging mineral fields." In Zhu Qing's view, compared with the traditional market structure, which has been relatively stable, The energy minerals and new energy minerals market is still in its initial growth stage. Although the concentration of leading manufacturers is relatively high, there are a lot of opportunities in resource exploration, mining and utilization, high-quality mine construction, etc., which contains a large market size. There are more possibilities for structural evolution.
Our country is at the forefront of the world in the development and utilization of new energy and industrial development.
Taking new energy vehicles as an example, my country currently accounts for more than 60% of the world's production and sales of new energy vehicles, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years.
"From the perspective of the industrial chain, my country has a globally dominant position in the middle and lower reaches of the new energy industry, but this is inseparable from strong demand and the large use of overseas new energy minerals." Jia Wenlong, deputy director of the China Academy of Natural Resources Economics, analyzed that my country is the world's leading new energy industry. It is the largest consumer, producer and trading country of mineral resources, but it is big but not strong.
The so-called "not strong" is reflected in the weak resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain, that is, the domestic self-sufficiency rate of upstream mineral raw materials does not match the downstream manufacturing and midstream smelting and processing capabilities.
We must take multiple measures to seize opportunities and promote diversified and stable supply of mineral resources.
Increase exploration efforts
In the first quarter of the year, good news came from new energy prospecting.
Nearly one million tons of lithium oxide resources have been discovered in Yajiang, Sichuan. This is also the largest pegmatite-type single lithium mine discovered so far in Asia.
"my country's proven resources are equivalent to more than 5.4 million tons of lithium resources, and the predicted resource potential is 17.6 million tons. We must continue to expand industrial strength, promote technological innovation, and accelerate the release of resource advantages." Zhu Qing said.
In order to make up for the shortcomings in the upstream of the industrial chain, domestic mineral resource exploration and development are making efforts.
National mineral resource reserve statistics for 2022 show that my country's strategic emerging mineral reserves of lithium, cobalt, and nickel increased by 57%, 14.5%, and 3% respectively year-on-year.
Since last year, the Ministry of Natural Resources has successively issued a number of documents such as the "Mining Rights Transfer Transaction Rules", "Mining Rights Transfer Income Collection Methods", "Notice on Further Improving the Registration and Management of Mineral Resources Exploration and Mining", from improving mineral resources exploration and mining management policies, Strengthen the construction of the mining rights transfer market, expand the channels for investment in mineral prospecting, and use multiple sources to reduce the burden on mining companies and mobilize market vitality.
Among them, the "Measures for the Collection of Income from the Assignment of Mining Rights" addresses the issue of high-profile issues such as the relatively fast collection pace of transfer income and the heavy burden on mining companies. In terms of the collection method of transfer income, it is clearly levied based on the transfer rate of return. At the same time, Reduce the proportion of down payment levied in the form of amount, extend the period of installment payment to the greatest extent, and balance the time distribution of the financial burden of mining rights holders.
This reduces corporate costs, dispels the concerns of some geological exploration units, and is conducive to accelerating the release of production capacity.
Wang Guanghua, Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources, previously published an article stating that mining projects generally have long cycles, large investments, and high risks, and rely heavily on scientific, systematic, and stable policy supply.
It is necessary to respect the laws of the market and allow the market to play a decisive role in the allocation of mineral resources. It is also necessary to consider the special reality that mineral resource exploration and development is related to the national economy, people's livelihood and national security, so as to better play the role of the government.
"Mineral resource conservation and comprehensive utilization technology is the key to revitalizing more resources." Jia Wenlong said that currently more than 80% of the lithium carbonate produced in our country is extracted from ore, which has relatively low grade and high development cost. We must solve the problem based on the entire industry chain. .
In terms of technological innovation, it is necessary to not only increase research on hard rock lithium mining technology in mines and lithium extraction technology from salt lakes, but also strengthen technological innovation in the detection of new energy minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel and waste battery recycling, and promote the transformation of potential resources into reality. Supply capacity; in terms of industrial chain construction, strengthen the construction of an integrated reserve system for strategic resource origins, production capacity, and products, and promote the deep integration of capital chain, technology chain, industrial chain, and supply chain.
Global allocation of resources
"The formation of mineral resources is inherently regional, but the allocation of resources is global." Gan Fei, chief engineer of the China Mining Federation, believes that due to my country's resource endowment, it is in line with the overseas investment and development of new energy mineral resources. Open and win-win development requirements.
On the one hand, some high-grade new energy minerals are mostly distributed in areas with weak development capabilities and limited demand. The conversion and utilization rate of resources is low and they cannot be efficiently utilized. On the other hand, areas with strong demand often have solid industrial foundations and are in the process of mining. It has accumulated mature experience in extraction and processing. Cooperating with mineral-rich areas can not only fully release the value of resources, but also provide local technology, talents and employment opportunities.
Compared with minerals such as iron ore, my country's mining companies started earlier in overseas deployment of new energy minerals and gained some development opportunities.
The reporter found out that as the first domestic companies to start going overseas to search for lithium, Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ganfeng Lithium Industry now occupy a place in the global lithium resource pattern.
As the scale of new energy production continues to expand, companies such as CATL and Great Wall Motors have also accelerated their overseas expansion, accounting for a certain proportion of global lithium resource development.
Difficulties and challenges are also coming one after another when searching for new energy resources overseas.
Among them, geopolitics has become an unavoidable factor that restricts mining companies from further expanding overseas; in addition, although there are many overseas mining investment entities in my country, there is a lack of mature and professional mining investment funds, and it is easy to have good development momentum but difficulty in financing. Condition.
Opportunities often coexist with challenges.
In January 2022, domestic mining giant Zijin Mining officially completed the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Canada's New Lithium Company.
The latter has the world's largest lithium salt lake project, with large resources, high grade, low impurities, good development conditions, and great potential for production expansion.
"Mineral resources are the core foundation of mining companies. Despite difficulties and challenges, in the face of huge market demand, companies must strengthen their confidence in global development and actively embrace the new energy revolution." Chen Jinghe, chairman of Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., said in 2023 This was stated at the China International Mining Conference.
Qian Fei said that after years of accumulation, Chinese mining companies have advantages in geological exploration, mining, mineral processing, smelting, environmental protection and other aspects. These experiences are also needed by foreign mines.
In the face of a new round of development opportunities, it is necessary to cultivate and strengthen high-quality enterprise entities, improve the global production and operation capabilities of enterprises from aspects such as attracting international talents, system construction, and cultural integration; strengthen financial supporting services, innovate financial products, and help enterprises "go global" "Provide more support.