Alejandra Olcese
Updated Monday, March 18, 2024-01:58
Graphic report The increase in the retirement age fails to cut pension spending to the levels expected by the Government
The Government has decided to stop preparing the
General State Budgets
for this year (which should have come into force in January) following the decision of the Generalitat of Catalonia to bring forward the elections, which will have an
impact on the Security accounts. Social,
which will not be able to update its expenditure and, above all, income forecasts.
The Minister of Social Security,
Elma Saiz
, stressed on Friday that her administration is "very capable of continuing to work with these budgets" and assured that she will "
respond to the challenges
" that lie ahead.
It refers to the fact that in no case will the lack of accounts affect those who interact with Social Security:
pensioners will continue to receive their pension,
beneficiaries of the Minimum Vital Income will also receive their benefits normally, and those who have a child this year will receive their benefits normally.
But to be able to meet all these expenses, you will have to ensure that you have the necessary income.
The main problem posed by operating with the 2023 accounts is not in the
expected income from social contributions
, since these will vary depending on the behavior of the labor market and it is expected that this year will be more or less as good as the previous one, but rather that the key is in the
transfers
it has received from the State for a few years and without which the system would not be sustainable.
On the one hand, in 2023 the State transferred
7,260 million
euros to assume the
minimum
pension supplements (those paid to those who are entitled to a contributory pension that does not reach the minimum established by law) and another
3,000 million
for the payment of
non-contributory pensions
(those to which those who have never contributed or have not contributed long enough to reach contributory level benefits are entitled when they are in a situation of protectable need or lack sufficient resources).
Given that all the people who collect these benefits have experienced
an increase of 3.8%
in 2024 , in line with the average inflation recorded in December, if it is assumed that there is not much variation in the group - in recent years the group of those who receive a non-contributory pension has remained stable and that of those who receive minimum supplements has decreased -
at least 390 million more euros
will be needed to be able to pay their benefits.
In addition to this update that new budgets should make, the contribution that the State makes to defray the so-called
"improper expenses"
of Social Security to comply with the first recommendation of the Toledo Pact should also be updated.
In 2023, this transfer of funds was
19,888 million euros,
but already in 2020 the former Minister of Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, predicted that the amount should reach
23,000 million.
His ministry had calculated that non-contributory policies financed by quotas would take 11.3 billion euros;
the operating expenses of Social Security would amount to 3.9 billion;
the birth and childcare benefit, at 2,950 million;
the reductions in the contribution, to 1,800 million;
the maternity supplement, 1,080 million;
subsidies to special regimes, 1,014, and filling in contribution gaps, 788 million.
In total 22,871 million.
"The AIReF forecasts, which
coincide with those of the Minister
of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá, indicate that these improper expenses would amount to 22,871 million in 2023, while the estimated deficit for that year would be 20,185 million," has reported by Social Security in the past.
In 2023 the amount of transfers did not reach 23,000 million, but experts consulted by this medium suggest that
in this year they will reach that amount
.
If there are no new Budgets that can update it, then the Executive will look for
alternative ways
for the State to make the corresponding transfer to Social Security.
From this department they assure that
"it is not at all a problem
or a limitation for Social Security. It is a situation that has occurred on other occasions and has operated completely normally", but it is true that having updated accounts would serve to to be able to have a more organized budget and an updated umbrella under which to operate, and that perhaps in the past when budgets have been extended, transfers from the State to Social Security were not as large as they have been in recent years.
Thanks to these transfers, precisely, Social Security can boast of
budgetary stability,
since without them it would present high deficits.